Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
A regular reminder of why to keep your Rock shares.
If phase 1 production average is 75,000b/d (80k is the plan)
and life of field costs were $30/b ($27.6 is currently the estimate)
perhaps with POO at $75/b (Brent at $78 atm)
The maths are
75,000bbls x $45 = $3.375M revenue per day, $1.232Billion a year
royalty 9%, Corp Tax 26% = $801M profit
Rock 35% = $280m profit net to Rock per year.
Rocks current market cap is $80m, compare to hopefully in 4 years time $280m profit a YEAR, and for MANY YEARS !
This is why we are invested, and why we should not be selling our shares for peanuts prices like 10.5pence.
So what are you expecting??
I can not think of any news coming up?
Why??
Nothing expected on the Hum radar that I know about.
CitizenTS, the amount Rock have to find, to get to first oil is not actually fixed yet.
At a capex of $1.3B, it can range from $nothing, to $151M
I vaguely have an expectation figure that Navitas are looking at achieving around $1billion in project finance, I have no idea where this idea came from now, plus the remainder from Navitas and Rockhopper funding.
If $300m is left after $1,000m of project finance, and Navita will fund 2/3rds of our share, then Rock need to find $35m.
Other $figurers are available.
With Rock valued at $75m, amusingly it would be way cheaper for Italy to buy Rockhopper,
cancel the ICSID claim, pay off our lawyers, and then sell Rockhopper back to Harbour :)
I have not seen this before, although it might have been posted.
Navitas can utilize 'accumulated losses for tax purposes amounting to 700 million dollars'.
A bit dated at 28 Sept last year.
Navitas will formulate an up-to-date and efficient development plan for the reservoir, and will be able to utilize accumulated losses for tax purposes amounting to 700 million dollars.
Navits chairman Gideon Tadmor : "The global energy crisis and the geopolitical reality make the project particularly attractive."
The Navits Petroleum Partnership reports the completion of the Sea Lion transaction, and the acquisition of 65% of the rights in the oil licenses of the giant reservoir that contains approximately 712 million barrels of oil, with Navits' share of approximately 463 million barrels. Now, with the completion of the deal, Navits has been appointed the project operator, and will work to formulate an up-to-date and efficient development plan for the reservoir.
The Sea Lion project arouses great interest in England, and this is in light of the need of England and other European countries for energy security and the guarantee of alternative energy sources to the gas and oil imported from Russia. As part of the completion of the transaction, the required regulatory approvals were received from England and the Falklands, including the extension of the validity of the licenses by two years.
As part of the transaction, Navits acquired 100% of the shares of Premier, a subsidiary of Harbor Energy, and holds 65% of the rights in the Sea Lion oil reservoir as well as other discoveries and exploration licenses in the area. The purchase was made free of charge, and Navits even received $6 million to finance future expenses. The acquired company has accumulated carryforward losses in the total amount of approximately 700 million dollars, which can be used for tax purposes when production begins.
As part of the transaction, Navits has the option of reaching the final investment decision in the reservoir within a period of 5 years from the date of completion of the transaction and the possibility of an extension of up to 18 additional months. This period will allow Navits to promote an up-to-date and efficient development plan for the project, as well as work to formulate a financing package and examine the addition of an additional partner and operator to the project.
The Sea Lion proven oil discovery is located about 220 km north of the coast of the Falkland Islands in the southwest Atlantic Ocean, and includes proven oil resources in the amount of about 712 million barrels of oil (C2). Navits' share (65%) is 463 million barrels.
https://www.funder.co.il/article/139676
Also worth keeping on the very long radar, that whilst SL phase one and two are targeting 269mmbbls 2C,
we also have ''443 MMbbls 2C additional resources contained on the North Falkland Basin including Sea Lion and Isobel/Elaine''
To be fair to Market Dealer, calling first oil in 2026 was viewed with plenty of scepticism,
and it is not a certainty yet either if FID is H2 2024,
however it can certainly happen if FID is H1 2024 !
Good call, things are getting interesting :)
First oil is a long way of still, however calculations are stunning for the patient.
269m bbls, POO $77, per barrel costs $27, 35% to Rock
40 x 269m x 35% --------> $3,766 Billion gross profit
We have a market cap of $74m !
PMO envisaged $1.8b capex to first oil
Navitas 1st oil capex is $1.3B, which previously we have calculated means that Rock would need to find just £35million to reach first oil in perhaps late 2026 or 2027.
All being well Italy. long before then, should have furballed up about $200m to Rock for OM debt.
Superb update demonstrating SL’s value.
So far this year we have been spoiled with regular one or two week updates regarding the stay of enforcement proceedings. The last one was Monday the 6th March. One would hope after, hearing all the evidence, it would not take too long to reiterate the original decision that Italy should pay their debts.
January 10, 2023
The ad hoc Committee holds a first session by video conference.
January 24, 2023
Italian Republic files a request to continue the stay of enforcement of the award.
January 31, 2023
The ad hoc Committee issues Procedural Order No. 1 concerning procedural matters.
February 7, 2023
Rockhopper Italia S.p.A., Rockhopper Mediterranean Ltd, and Rockhopper Exploration file observations on the Italian Republic’s request to continue the stay of enforcement of the award.
February 14, 2023
Italian Republic files a response on Rockhopper Italia S.p.A., Rockhopper Mediterranean Ltd, and Rockhopper Exploration Plc’s observations of February 7, 2023.
February 21, 2023
Rockhopper Italia S.p.A., Rockhopper Mediterranean Ltd, and Rockhopper Exploration Plc file a rejoinder on the Italian Republic’s request to continue the stay of enforcement of the award.
March 6, 2023
The ad hoc Committee holds a hearing on the stay of enforcement of the award.
Mogger, I believe Penny was quoting from the youtube trader, not himself.
I enjoyed the analysis, although the fact he kept quoting the old PMO estimate of $1.8billion capex, then routinely rounded it up to $2billlion, and didn't seem to be aware that Navitas are looking for a scaled back capex of about $1.4B, leads me to think he's not entirely got his finger on the pulse with regards the SL project.
The usual slow slide down, after the slow slide up after the froth of investors hoping something had happened, however with no official Rns news so now thinking nothing has happened.
That is actually not the case I feel. Jockosjungle post was quite informative and very positive. We now know all parties are still very much involved and according to Navitas ''significant progress made towards FID'' !
A reminder - Chair of the Legislative Assembly, said:
“Our discussions were positive and expressed our Islands Plan commitment to exploring project plans~-which could secure lasting benefit and opportunity for the Falkland Islands.
We support the development of Sea Lion in principle
(We) remain keen and committed to continuing discussions on how this project could develop. Regulatory approval for the Sea Lion project will be considered by ExCo once the project has matured further.
Navitas held a very successful meeting with members of the business community
Chief Executive, Andy Keeling said (of Navitas)
“Their commitment to Sea Lion and to working closely with FIG has been very demonstrable’’
Chairman of Navitas said:
FIG’s collaborative approach and support will enable us to ##accelerate the development of Sea Lion ## to the highest practicable technical and environmental standards.
"Our team presented the significant progress made, built on predecessor’s high quality work, towards Sea Lion’s Final Investment Decision. ‘’
Market-Dealer, good evening to you too.
I have long thought, and posted that SL sanction will most likely happen.
Navitas have put their money where their mouth is, and demonstrated a pleasingly focused commitment to Sea Lion, even at $60bbl.
With regards your flamboyant report of a meeting held in the FI, the important details has not been proven,
either way as yet, so I can't yet judge how accurate it was.
However, most investors can agree that the meeting in the FI was positive , and Navitas, whilst inherently secretive, are also incredibly capable. I'm relaxed about my 500k.
Fecm, it's probably just officialdom corporate speak. We all know FI population, and FiG in general, are supportive to get the oil industry established, as long as the usual environmental safeguards are in place
The important points are words like
'Our team presented the significant progress made...., towards Sea Lion’s Final Investment Decision.'
Music to investors ears :)
To those who went to the Agm and have reported back. Very appreciated !
Any and all bits of information & realistic interpretations, impressions, are always welcome.
Thanks for the link CitizenTZ, very interesting.
Fecm, I think in general, the report was very encouraging. Especially from Gideon Tadmor as per below.
FIG also said
''Chief Executive, Andy Keeling said “The ENTUSIASM and can-do approach of the Navitas Team is very evident, having face to face meetings has been invaluable. (And as we all know anyway) Their COMMITTMENT to Sea Lion and to working closely with FIG has been very demonstrable and we look forward to developing this further''
The chances of Sea Lion being sanctioned is almost certain, it's more a question of when, not if.
'Chairman of Navitas Petroleum, Gideon Tadmor commented: "Our team presented the significant progress made, built on predecessor’s high quality work, towards Sea Lion’s Final Investment Decision. FIG’s collaborative approach and support will enable us to accelerate the development of Sea Lion to the highest practicable technical and environmental standards. Sea Lion is a win-win opportunity'
Not forgetting GClark was it ??
He seemed to have accurate insider knowledge that he was happy to anonymously share at times.
The old link was interesting, though the headline 'bankrupt by Sept 22'' was never a possibility. 'Equity raise by Sept' would have been a better phrase.
I always thought that Navitas JV was very likely, & certainly I feel, the chances of a 10, 20, 30 bagger in the next 5 years is much higher than people are yet to realise.
I agree with you Ovets, and others who have said 2026 would only be possible if SL is sanctioned very soon, that Navitas have many ducks lined up, and all goes to plan.
Realistically 2027 is probably the very earliest. However Rocks SP doesn't depend on seeing first oil, it will take off on sanction and these ****ant penny prices will be looked upon regretfully as 'why didn't I just buy another 50k when I had the chance'.
Then again most of us have a few 9p warrants :)