Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Page 13
https://ir.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/%E2%80%8F%E2%80%8FNavits-FS-Q1_2023_31052023_eng_NM.pdf
NOTE 3 - INVESTMENTS IN OIL AND GAS ASSETS
Sea Lion project
$16,728 to 31 March 2023
$14,025 to 31 March 2022
Up to March, Navitas had invested $31million in Sea Lion. Probably up to $40m by now.
Sea Lion is highly likely going to be developed, its more a question of when, not if, now.
h2 2023 is going exciting I think :)
Lucky, I am not falling into any game by pointing out that principle debt repayment for the initial tranche of $40m is a mere $4m a Quarter.
I'm not sure many had done the maths or looked into it.
If you add in that Hum are now taking ore principally from Sanioumala East, which is also relatively high grade at 2.5g/ton for the rest of the year, then it is quite logical doing the calculations, to believe that the company target of up to 90,000 oz in 2023 will be easily met.
Perhaps I have this wrong, but from the Oct 2021 Rns, it says
First tranche of US$40 million to be drawn imminently ahead of construction scheduled to begin soon after
The term of the loan is four years, being interest only for the first 18 months on each debt tranche once drawn, at an 8.5% fixed interest rate
Also 'Construction at Kouroussa commenced in December 2021'
Assuming that $40m was drawn soon after this Rns, perhaps Nov 2021, 18 months later is May 2023.
If they have to pay back the loan over 4 years, and the first 18months was interest only, then Hum need to pay back the first tranche of $40m over 48m minus 18m so 30months. $40m / 30months is $1.3333m per month in principle payments, or $4m a quarter!!
There is interest to pay as well, but $1.33m/month or $4m per quarter, plus interest at 8.5% is not wet your pants territory, as seems the theme of some posts I've read lately !
Just worth considering, that any scheduled debt repayments can be rescheduled, if required,
especially with a willing lender who can see forward earning potential,
and who have a subsidiary with skin in the HUM mining business,
and who should definitely want HUM to run their mines profitably.
Another one enders the forever filtered zone.
And you guys should stop playing the fools game and responding to his deramping Subject line !
ralph2010 Olliesky Kurgan2.0 Trop Michael2021 Godders99 Kurgan3 Bigred7 hydraides LaticsRule Mirasol
Decidedleaverage
July 10, 2023 - The ad hoc Committee issues Procedural Order No. 2 concerning the termination of the stay of enforcement of the award.
WRT the Rns saying
'provided that Italy does not within those 5 business days submit a reasoned written objection in these annulment proceedings that the escrow arrangements established are not in accordance with the proposed arrangements.'
It is unlikely Rock will err in opening the escrow account, however I half hope ROI do make up some Micky Mouse objection, as it will possibly again, irritate ICSID representatives.
It has probably been posted before, although I can't remember it.
Navitas PowerPoint presentation from just this May.
Page 10. 18 Wells ''online by 2026''.
They will need to get a move on !!
https://ir.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Navitas-Investors-01052023.pdf
There is nearly £5million of warrants still waiting to be exercised.
Assuming the SP remains above 12p, I would expect nearly all to be exercised.
I have over 50,000 warrants that I haven't yet exercised, but expect to later in the year.
Thanks Citizen, and to add, from the Navitas update, per barrel cost - life of field, Opex being the largest portion.
Capex: US$7.50
Opex: US$20.10
Total cost: US$27.60
''Can somebody ask about oil shipping costs per bbl etc. and pricing for the oil and let us know? I felt it is important as I saw a poster recently, which believes that the 27$ phase 1 opex & capex costs are simply deducted from a 77$ brent price to give operating profit!''
Hello Header, it would be good if someone can answer you more accurately.
My understanding is capex and opex will cover all of the costs of getting the oil into a tanker, leaving as I said a 'gross' profit of price of cruse minus all lifting costs.
One still needs to remove tax and royalties of course, 9% royalty, 26% corporate tax.
Agreed. Thanks PaulDrayton.
That is the thing about Navitas, good things are moving along behind the scenes,
however we don't see it until Navitas are ready to announce. But undoubtedly they aren't doing all this work to say, naar, 275,000,000 barrels at $50/bbl gross profit isn't worth our time.
What was your previous moniker Decided?
You are right it's taken far far longer than anyone thought, however this time it looks far more likely Navitas will progress to FID.
'propose concrete arrangement.'
'Italy may then briefly comment on Rockhopper's proposal within 10 days'
One would assume Rock did propose 'mitigation of the risk of non-recoupment', and that ROI threw some toys out of the pram again in their 10 days.
However ICSID I feel are too established to be concerned about losers theatrics.
News quite possible this week LTT, but the wheels grind slowly as we all know.
April 24, 2023
The ad hoc Committee issues a decision on concerning the continuation of the stay of enforcement of the award.
(Saying) that Rockhopper shall, within 30 days of the date of the decision, apprise the Committee of arrangements agreed with Italy for the mitigation of the risk of non-recoupment or that negotiations have failed and, in the latter event, propose concrete arrangements in accordance with the decision for the mitigation of the risk of non-recoupment. Italy may then briefly comment on Rockhopper's proposal within 10 days, constructively highlighting any areas of disagreement between the Parties.
The provisional stay remains in force during this time, pending further order from the Committee.
That is now just over 8 weeks ago, or 41 ''working days''. RNS said 30 +10 days.
Whether just days, or working days, Rock were instructed to have proposed 'concrete arrangements for the mitigation of the risk'.
I was expecting news about the lifting of the stay already. It is now slightly overdue.
Fortunately, or unfortunately, patience is likely to be a virtue most Rock SH's have learnt to have.
It seems unlikely I feel, that any country, with £100's x Billions of expenditure every year, would expend the effort and inconvenience and ultimately futility, to 'hide' it's assets just in case they need to avoid the international bailiffs !
Ultimately it wouldn't work, as anything Italian Government owned, that ventured abroad, could be seized, like the Argentinian Navel vessel with 250 sailor on board :-)
* Elliott Capital’s arguably most audacious scheme came in 2012, when the Argentine navy’s proud three-masted tall ship pulled into the port of Tema in Ghana ~ Elliott Capital persuaded a Ghanaian court to seize the vessel so it could collect on its debt. Argentinian officials would lash out at Elliott as “unscrupulous financiers” and after more than two months the ship was released.
Four years later, though, Elliott Capital and several other hedge funds and creditors are about to get their satisfaction.
The Argentine government agreed to a settlement that would allow Singer’s fund to walk away with $2.4 billion for bonds that the government had failed to pay on, according to court documents.
For the same reason I thought it unlikely we would get any news regarding the stay before the 30+10 days were entirely up, I also think it now very likely we will get an update very soon from ICSID, as they so far, have been quite prompt in moving this procedure along.
I would be gob smacked, if the stay, stays. The reason for ICSID's ruling, to open an escrow account, is to allow recovered funds to be ring fenced.
There is no point at all having that escrow account if you refuse to allow Rock to enforce the ruling !
Unless there are addition reasons to keep the stay, I think it 99% certain the stay will be lifted.
I would hope the SP will have another attempt to pass 15pence on the lifting of the stay.
I would also like to see some enforcement activity news soon after, perhaps within a fortnight.
A cool £3 Trillion bill, just so China in Q1 alone, can emit more than we will save,
just by their 'INCREASE' in CO2 emissions !!
We impoverish ourselves and destroy our industries, just for it all to be undone by China in 3 months.
Liebour, Fibdems, Green loonies I expect this scale of stupidity, I did not expect it from Tories who are more light socialists than Conservative now. Lead by donkeys across the board.
''China’s CO2 emissions hit record for Q1
The new analysis shows that China’s CO2 emissions grew 4% in the first quarter of 2023, compared with a year earlier. This means first-quarter emissions were the highest on record, exceeding the previous peak reached in the first three months of 2021.''
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-hit-q1-record-high-after-4-rise-in-early-2023/#:~:text=Data%20sources-,China's%20CO2%20emissions%20hit%20record%20for%20Q1,first%20three%20months%20of%202021.
AlmaCogan, thanks for the correction and information. Hopefully a few diplomatic residences in New York, London and Tokyo might get good publicity and their attention.
A few posters have commentated on how a lifting of the stay, might be actioned by Rock.
I feel it unlikely that Rock will wait to enforce legal action.
I would hope it more likely they have already identified a couple of high ticket, embarrassing for Italy and easy to confiscate items, in law abiding countries, that they will immediately go after. The more itrmsd ythey go for, the more the legal costs will be, however they don't need a scatter gun approach, just a high value, high embarrassment approach. With luck, ROI might become more reasonable, if a warship in Canada or consulate building in Washington, is impounded.
Well it is of no surprise ROI are not co-operating. That is their fall back position, fingers in ears, la la la.
However they can't ignore the law in non ROI countries which is where we are heading .
Italy's Bill up to Aug 2022
'Rockhopper submitted a letter to the Italian Republic in September 2022 formally requesting payment of EUR247 million, representing the Award amount plus accrued interest from 29 January 2016 to 23 August 2022 and costs.'