The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
"At Risk" = The jobs are gone. The decisions been made, it always is regardless whether its a proposal to the last second. PDG have never gotten out of this whole centralisation to Nottingham. It didn't work well 15 years ago, it still doesn't work well.
Got to feel for these accountants, The ones that do get a Jon will get three times the work and no doubt all the new roles the salaries etc have been cut.
How Mr Casha has survived all this time is beyond me, he and Trevor IMHO ruined the businesses they bought.
All reading the same.accounts Optomist. The point is people are going on about nav and interested parties etc...The truth of the matter is for all the "noise", the only bidder is PE. Given RURs statement today on materiality, i hooe im wrong. However, if you ever see IFS coming with a materiality, then their are issues. Where are all these other "interested parties" ? We all keep going on about Argentina being a great asset...then we get an issue with the plant. This all affects RURs delicate cashflow. Ill be delighted to be proved wrong, i might be able.to take my snorkel and flippers off (from being underwater). But lets not get carries away given the cashflow? Current plant issues and then rolling in the historical stuck.over a barrell.
And.people.are.talking about nav and loads of interest blah blah blah. The pricing suggests atm that the price on offer is somewhere roubd the 2p region (otherwise thisbwould be way higher) As for potential interest, if rur was that saleable we wouldnt be kicking it round these levels. Also given rurs current cash position, it has just beeen kicking the can down the road. At some stage sterling will sell for what they can get. My own personal view is their arent any other suitors in the wing, so i very much think PE etall will be.lowballing the offer regardless of what people "think" the business is worth. Todays rns shows again RURs predicament. Whenever i see a word like material in an rns, that is not something that strikes confidence.
Get shot of these bloody turbines. Company - Inventories Year Ended Year Ended 31.12.16 31.12.15 £'000 £'000 Inventories 9,755 16,195 Inventories comprises of two Siemens 701DU Turbines acquired from IPSA in June 2013. Further details of which are set out in note 14. An impairment was recognised in the year, see note 9b. No expense has been recognised in the income statement in respect of inventories other than impairment (2015: nil).
news can only be viewed as positive. However until we actually get an annullment, Ill not get too excited. Atleast we dont have to provide an extortionate funder guarantor. We live for another day !
More of the same then... Still hold turbines, still cant sell anything, slight improvement in argentina but even then.. Energia del Sur S.A. Results At the operating level the plant in Comodoro Rivadavia and therefore based on 100% of EdS's activities the net operating profit for the year was AR$ 111.0 million (2015: AR$ 67.5 million) on revenues of AR$ 375.3 million (2015: AR$ 261.6 million), whilst the gross operating profit was AR$ 333.5 million (2015: AR$ 100.7 million). The net profit for the year in EdS was AR$ 27.6 million (2015: loss AR$ 49.6 million) which included foreign exchange losses of AR$ 34.2 million (2015: AR$ 85.0 million). So the net profit in the year in EDS was £1.3m...But then, take a look at the "Review of operations section" for Argentina... Then we have... Until there is a disposal of assets, the Group is dependent upon joint venture receipts from Argentina in order to comply with payment arrangements made since the year-end with its creditors. There exists uncertainty as to the timing and the quantum of the receipts from its joint venture in Argentina and for this reason the Directors are, in the meantime, pursuing alternative sources of working capital until disposal receipts are assured, none of which have been secured yet. Its no wonder these dont get much attention in my portfollio these days ! :(
Stal, Q1 total regs are up 5.5% vs prior year It looks like interns of volume Ford soaked up the reduction Vauxhall had. The French manufacturers were losers as well as Fiat also being down. Nissan interms of volume did well along with Toyota and Mercedes. Given a record Q1 on the cards, with Record March profitability, you have to say those holding those losers in Q1 really have a task on their hands ! On average March represents around 1/3 if the years profitability, id hate to be a big Vauxhall.peugot.Citroen group.
What I can also gather, I don't believe their will be any major purchases here this year. Whilst the facility is their for VTU to use, and whilst their may be a purchase here or there, with Brexit now started there appears to be a battoning down of the hatches. Cost control and reduction/minimization is the name of the game..Until things become clearer on Brexit, their wont be any major purchases unless they are seriously cheap.
From the start of Q1, some of the targets, particularly for March banging on about VED increase and how March would be up (alone) circa 10-20% seemed very high...From what I have seen, looks like March has been up around 10% plus. Interestingly retained margin has looked very strong, surprisingly strong with dealers perhaps locking in ppu over volume only to do both and a manufacturer deal. This in turn has driven aftersales to a very strong March performance. In 20 years Stal I haven't seen a month like it, and I was very skeptical indeed. A ton of reging on fleet, alot of manufacturers for the first time ive ever seen offering dealers funding interms of covering bank interest to get the regs done in Q1. I expect record March's in the sector, pre reg terms look to have been very favourable as well and offer a very good incremental opportunity for used cars (providing people have been sensible and slotted in £1k plus the 15-20% terms on offer) Expect derive plan retention to have really helped the groups for aftersales.
Robust trading update today. AS has been said, the sector is just so unloved its ridicolous really. 100K service plan customers providing around 10m free cash flow a year, 70m worth of firepower for aquisitions, very strong aftersales and used car growth and margins....whats not to like. Looking out Q1 according to manufactures is forecast to be up to 20% up (march around 15% in itself) so it will be a very skewed Q1. Given Brexit looming, I think that any aquisitions will be slow and not substantial, unless of course earning enhancement from the get go. Looks like the industry is back to cost cost cost so no doubt itll be a "choppy time" of year at the moment readying for a new financial year (just like the good olde days at PDG when the chopping started end of Nov/start of December just in time for the new financial year).
thing was I meant to post last night about how VTU had been holding up pretty resiliantly but this is mainly due to being going Ex-Div in Dcember, and then a 4% drop today ! Ha ! On Ex Div, their will be a downward trend as people take their cash off the table and see where it settles. Where it settles is anyones guess.....and it is for me a complete guess, but I do still think 33p , not to begin with but with what is due in March (strongest month for motor groups in the year)....unless of course Supreme court rule against government and delay involking of the article past their. anon3 , agreed. "I'm sick to death of buying what I see as good value shares, only to see them plummet."....Thats why I can only try and play a long game, value will win over in the end....but time isnt on everyones side !
All depends really Stal if its a single or multiple dealer. What generally tends to happen is the BOD would agree the value )I think VTU (Mr Forrester) has a typical this x this Formula for what he deems the correct value then I guess they whittle from there) Generally I think what happens next from their is that it gets passed down to a DFD who then runs through the balance sheet and ticks off the boxes and tidies up the loose ends )or passes the loose ends downstream ! Balance sheet review will depend on size really, but if you think 1 person can run through a balance sheet in under a week, then the process actually can be conducted in a realitively short period of time. Given from memory most motor groups run 1st Jan - 31st December (PDG certainly), I think from memory VTU run 1st March to last day of Feb each year (someone can correct me if Im wrong) so you would certainly look to be rapping up the purchase potentially January at the latest. November is always a funny month, but from people Im speaking to it seems November new cars / fleet has slowed down quite a bit. Used cars are still plodding along, Ill reserve judgement until I see December (again a funny month where no one should have any money but can actually be a very reasonable month).
cat, bouncing, DEED ! (:P) I did note LOOK talking about the cash being available Stal for further aquistions so it will be interesting to see if thats single dealerships or CAMB....Ill plump for the first but shall see if the second comes off. Just wondering what the expectation on buying point again would be here. Sadly well managed company, but is it going to drift down (those into the low 30s (33p ?) to pick up given Brexit ?) (Or another consultant for the government leaking information that seems off to the public ?) On a plus Stal, CHL due news in two weeks, so I will be derisking shortly (not getting caught out like I did RUR_ and then ICEWINE punt here I come :)
I wondered if I was the only one with the slant on that RNS, you have covered it the way I read it....Turnaround specialist appointed to the board...then the "turnaround" bit put not so much "turnaroundish". LB, if I was a betting man (which I aint), Id say RUR are currently about cash neutural. No borrowing, but no spending out with "what is neccesary to keep things going"...... Jeddi, you really do scare me....Given the holding that the administrators have, of course they have the option to put people onto the board. Simon Morris should phone them tommorrow and warn them about "suing" them if their actions "effect"....really..."effect the SMOOTH running"...... You pick up that phone and give them hell.........."smooth running"....its "just ticking"...their is no smooth. Equally, HELLO, the administrators PRATICALLY own RUR....COFFEE , WAKE UP & SMELL.
Stal, Already on the list. Icewine 2. The only thing Ill ever say with any stocks in o&g`rs Ive owned, they are punts until proven. Been burned, and also done well, I do always struggle with the things I dont know so much on ! (that old Buffett speil) :) Q1 spud for Icewine 2, so I am leaning towards a punt in there. I am however currently awaiting news on CHL, which is due iminent on arbitration interms of authenticity. Fortunatly in from 19p so currently all is well.
There is one thing I know about that transaction.....no one in the industry expected it. Given such a high margin business, it absolutely blind sided EVERYONE So Jollys shout , you know that might actually not be a bad call at all !