Member Info for Spac3y

Im taking that figure and halfing it, afterall they were quoting circa 10p at the last count and then having to write down 17m+... Most important thing here is working capital, and we are struggling with the facilities, or lack of them here at decent rates so given this ill be looking at a 25% markdown atleast on monday...but then this is aim....and what do I know !

Until there is a disposal of assets the Group is dependent upon the continued forbearance of its creditors. There exists a material uncertainty as to the timing and the quantum of these receipts... Atleast we still have three turbines...but continues to own three turbines ready for deployment in projects, although it is expected that local opposition to the Arica project in Chile is likely to lead to the turbine being deployed elsewhere. Expect a substantial drop on monday....An thats being Optimistic !

pretty much where I expected it to be. You dont suspend a share unless : An offer is coming (always very unlikely) or B) the impact of results will have a substantial impact on your SP (A large part of the new facility was utilised to repay the Radix loan. Despite this new facility, the cash position of the Group remains critical. Although our plant in Argentina in Comodoro Rivadavia continues to operate profitably, it has been very difficult to repatriate cash to the UK to repay loans due to pressures on the working capital cycle in Argentina.) This says it all.... "It is clear to me that the Group has not been adequately funded for some considerable time, not just the last 12 months. You will all be aware of the significant setbacks the Group suffered on the compensation award from Bolivia in June 2014. Since that period, the Group has relied on short-term finance arrangements to enable it to continue to trade. This included taking on short-term borrowings at interest rates of 12% to fund the development of the hydro portfolio in Peru. The funding was wholly inappropriate as development finance, and much of this funding remains outstanding today. Many creditors in Rurelec have outstanding balances stretching back over a year. The poor cash position of the Group is a legacy of inappropriate funding entered into in previous years, and decisions to carry on certain developments without the necessary funding in place."

Like your title, sadly my optimism ran out here a long time ago. We all agree that Argentina "should" be repatriating funds, we all agree on paper that the "value" here is 2.5-5p in assets...yet, here we sit with no news for a long while, all the news we had that brought us down here and sadly as we no, we dont have much money, with the last statements showing that we were going to be sending home from Argentina what we did last year. Been in and seen in Aim for far to long, will be happy to see some "fruition" in the assets, but , as I said earlier, suspension of shares for me doesnt mean what it might to alot of others. The cash position is kinh, we have used our facilities and pretty much are looking for more. That is of course in my own view, but I will wait and see. On a plus point not long to go in the CHL forgery case so atleast that is nearing a big hurdle to finish jumping.

I suspect well all be left lagging as usual. Given the suspension, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see bad news and a drop, after all, short on cash and long on hope so let us just see....

Has flatlined....Defibulator anyone ? :P

87p was always a silly target price. 60-70p is about correct for the moment. Interms of expansion, I dont actually think VTU have expanded overley quick. Its not like they have added two hundred dealerships and tried to fit them all in. They have added a reasonable amount at a reasonable pace, they have also taken bed in periods where they have slowed slightly aquisitions. We all know, to turn around businesses generally are 2-3year plans, alot of the broken businesses bought are now past that and have actually improved performance (granted there will still be some problem children), but then these wont be allowed to be problem children for overly longer than this period. Unlike PDG, VTU will get rid of these quickly enough, where as PDG held onto loss making businesses for lengthy periods of time. With no major aquisitions planned until past Autumn at the least, VTU have entered into another bedding period which makes perfect sense. Given the latest aquisition, it also seems likely that they will move more towards funding facilities than further tapping of shareholders, although the latter may still happen. I do expect to see favourable terms on any such facilities should they arise. I said before Brexit is weighing the whole sector down, take alook over the sector , most if not all are at or about 52wk lows. It will be interesting to see what contingency is in place should next weeks vote for for a Brexit and will certainly allow for rich pickings on SP reductions. Equally we will most likely see a 20% increase over the sector if Brexit does not happen. With teams of traders poised for the "day after tommorrow", there certainly will be alot of swings.

Arnold Clark downgraded to a "smaller dealer group"..... :) The only reason currently the current price is weighted down is due to the current Brexit issue. A positive for this in the next 15 days will see the whole sector rise....equally, a not so positive will this, will probably knock the sector 20-30%. The current aquisition is EBITDA enhancing, payback on aquisition is what, 8 years , so well within scope of the norm. One would imagine that VTU may look towards a mix of utilizing facilities for further aquisitions and potentially some further shareholder involvement if required. One would imagine there will be some more purchases before a bed in period for current non enhancing aquisitions.

=52 week lows

Even going back 5 years ago, PDG had a scary amount of propertys on 100year leases empty gathering the dusts...Were not talking just a couple of sites either hence the move to "try" differrent angles with stores etc. VTU numbers due this week so I guess we will see where the results are there although they have already said above market expectations...will look more for the update on current market but I think uses cars should be encouraging. IF you look again over the sector at SP, most of the stocks are trading around 2 week lows. I guess the big question currently coming is next month, if Brexit is avoided , then the groups will no doubt see a bounce in price. If Brexit is taken up, then who knows ! PDG have always eaten through staff, even at the higher levels (I can remember a conversation with a Divisional director being dragged down to Loxlet on a Friday afternoon because he wasnt following UCM....but was making way more than the KPI.... Long of the short, the sector isnt performaing as badly as the SP`s look, however there are alot of nerves with the impending vote and in my opinion this is having a far worse effect than actual trading results will be.

IS indeed being weighed down by 2 things... Continued concern on Brexit Continued concern that the market has topped out. Take a look over the actual sector...Inchcape, Lookers, PDG, Vertu, they are all being effected by the above. Here is where the dissapointment lies for me with PDG. Used GP only up 4.2% and onyl 1.2% in aftersales GP... Q1 has proved to be very good for a few motor groups, these numbers from PDG seem appear to be half of what they should be. Equaly, with volumes up for other groups, that is a very good spot hottips on actual used volumes, again some groups have had a very very good Q1 and even Q2 has started not too bad at all....Looks like PDG are not getting there share of this. I have found it very bizarre that PDG hasve continued to sell out of the premium franchises, none more so than landrover. Given the price other groups have been paying to buy these, perhaps Mr Finn feels hes been cashing these out at the top of the market.....still looks to me like the most sought after vehicle is indeed a landrover....So I do beleive that it has been misjudged at which point these dealerships have been sold. It almost feels like after being bitten paying over the odds at the hight of the market that PDG has retreated into its shell...Perhaps too much fear still exsists after all most going to the wall. "with our debt : underlying EBITDA ratio remaining significantly below our target range of 1.0 to 1.5. We are currently assessing our best use of funds" Finally PDG have gotten the issue of debt undercontrol, a hell of a lot better terms than when the market crashed....yet...still....scared to spend the money...and when they do, things arent turning out as planned. My biggest issue with PDG, apart from certain "senior" management (and regardless what you think of Trevor, he is actually a very smart man who is well resepected in the industry, something that cant be said for some of the "others", here, is simple.....Shares in CIRC... 1.5bn shares in circ. What should have happened a few years back was a consolodation, bring this back down to the 500m shares in circ. 1.5BN shares....takes alot to move this in order to get the returns you think you should get. The sector is very tetchy SP wise at the moment because of the 2 mentioned items, once Brexit or non Brexit is out of the way, the sector will recover some traction. The second of the two , has the sector topped out, I dont beleive it has just yet. New cars Id agree, used cars, well, just keep your eyes open accross the sector, it is still buyont and there are groups taking more than there fair share at more than a decent margin. Equally, service plan pentertation is starting to kick in on a few groups as well, so expect to see encouraging results in terms of aftersales gp and bottom line. Just my tuppence :)

Administrators quite frankly should be exerting way more pressure than seems to be happening. Equally, if we are materially receiving funds from Argentina, this is material and should be reported.... This did strike a cord however... "the Company is now an AIM Rule 15 cash shell and is seeking to conduct a reverse takeover."...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-29/argentina-reaches-4-65-billion-deal-with-main-holdouts

GFD, my point was we had a maintenance charge that we dont know what the cost was, which would be reducing EBITDA for EDS which by all accounts and from what was in the releases sounded chunky. Given this was only due to start being repaid May15 onwards, this wouldnt have had much impact on Q1 earnings in terms of release, however, depending on the amount not hitting P&L in Q2 could be enhancing EDS`s bottom line. We also do not know how much this actual reserve amounted to, which is again why I brought it up because by the wording from the RNS it sounded substantial.

One other thing with regards to EDS. I knew I had posted it on here but couldnt remember where, I eventually found it back in one of my November posts here... "Heres a question however, what has happened to the repayment of the monthly maintenance charge that had a major impact on EDS performance and which should have started to being repaid from May 15 which was to bolster cashflow ?" (RUR`s final results Jun15) This is something Id also like to see further clarity on as this charge was from RUR`s releases was "majorly" impacting on EDS. How much was it ? How much is now saved and how much has been repaid ?

In terms of FMT, there is no reason to doubt that the given the current six months, that the ball park of 7$-8$m is a fairly reliable amount to go by (FMT was overflated by a lot of pubs when trying to gain increased rent) so I do not see that being an issue here. Had their been a material impact to the business in terms of costs, then RUR would have to come to market to notify the holders that this is the case, which they obviously have not happened. Flightman the valuation given was only for Argentina so any/all parts of the business were not included. If we can start to see clear down of the existing loans, then down the line this would obviously help to increase the Argentinian balance sheet and would further increase the value of the business.

Obviously does not include the $44m due from it. So one has to rember that for RUR`s valuation, from a "book" view, should include not only the valuation of EDS, but the monies due still from it. Whether youd factor £30m + £20m valuation is up to an individual, but given we have a cap of £7m at the minute...yeah. Again once RUR are paid back the monies due you would again epect to see an increase in EBITDA but thats a long way off. I am on the look out for any RNS that suggests more money borrowed or extension to the Radix facility further than Jun. If cash is flowing we shouldnt see any of that. however, until such times as I see something concrete on this front, Ill refrain from being speculative as we have no further information.

Not had much chance to reply GFD as January has been particularly busy at work, month end is upon us an a year end looming at the end of February so busy busy busy. In relation to valuation of EDS, if you look at it from a simplistic view, Argentinian enery companies trade around 6x EBITDA. Given we know that to Jun 2015 that "The underlying power generating asset in Comodoro Rivadavia is profitable with US $3.8m EBITDA to 30th June 2015", it wouldnt be unreasonably to peg the amount for the year at $7-$8m EBITDA. Even if we took a multiple of 5x which is seen as cheap in the market, 6x being the normal benchmark, your looking at a value of $35-40$m usd which given our current price , 50% share of that shows decent potential upside. Their is further valuation upside depending on what is being remiited to RUR, is it interest, is it capital repayment on outstanding amount, or both. But lets just say an easy $40m minimum. What we do need information on is CAMMESA payments.Are these up to date ? If not, what is the effect on these on EDS being able to remit cash back to RUR. We have to bear in mind that EDS are profitable, but can only pass on monies due, if they actually have it, this is one element we are not quite sure on and need further clarification. Right now, for want of a better phrase, we are all ******* in the wind because we are getting no infromation so it is very difficult to say what is the cash flow situation. Given the current moves on subsidy reduction etc, this should improve EBITDA down the line, but only ones a steady flow of cash flow is shown. The market/country is moving very positivley ticking the boxes off, but I do think this is going to take time to feed through for us. On a side issue, and only IMHO, we need to get shot of our NOMAD. In my own view, they are the NOMAD of last resort, or if you couldnt get any credit, youd goto WONGA, if you couldnt get a decenet advisor, then you end up with our one....... Interms of Sterlings Holding, theirs no news because I think that the Administrator has plenty of time to wait for the correct valuation it deems as being neccessary. A value has been quoted by them on their worth, but I suspect they will go for less than that unless their is some major news release into the market.

Hi GFD, hope your feeling better , seems alot of bugs doing the rounds as of later. According to the books the amount that was being remitted was straightforward enough as in 4.8mill. Granted we are now awaiting too see how this year has went, I imagine due to delays this amount will have been lower, how much lower we shall have to wait and see how much the delays in payments may have/be

Not 50k was the previous limit Flightman as I pointed out again last week.