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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/09/05/liz-truss-considering-plans-freeze-energy-bills-next-election/

Along with NI cuts and Tax cuts to come. THG update next week, are we in for a perfect storm!

Been in a shxx storm for months on end!! Surely has to turn soon!

7 days for a full update

12 months for Golden share to Expire

What is the BOD going to do? Has to do something. Release golden share, and go for premium listing??

We will find out soon enough...

Usually they say its the other way round!

With the clear disconnect with THG Market Value vs Actual Business, can we take a super fast elevator straight back up and close the HUGE disconnect.. near the end of 2021 cash value!

Tiny volume again, and you guessed it, like death and taxes, it's a guaranteed they drag this down, only way they know.

In the last 3 weeks alone, THG has been dragged down 26%, or circa £250m chopped off the market cap!!! Completely nonsensical.

City folk back at their desks

New PM on Monday

Results and update 8 trading days away!

And THG has been dragged down close to cash value on next to no volume over the summer lull!

Just look at the daily volume so far today!

A grand total of 0.08% (basically absolutely nothing) of total shares have traded, more than double buys vs sells! Been going on for months on end. Everyone knows it. Cycle will have to break!

“In the short term the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts as a weighing machine"

Revenue x15.6
International Revenue x25.4
EBITDA x11
Cash x10
Billions £££ invested in infrastructure and acquisitions, £900m+ on acquisitions since IPO only 24 months ago!!!

And yet the market is seemingly telling us it's now worth similar to 8 years ago!!!

How can ANY business grow by x15+, and yet the valuation stays the same....make it make sense.

Well holidays now over. City folk will be getting back to their desks, algos been doing their job whilst theyv been away, algos been doing a fantastic job here for a year now. Setting on 'down down down everyday', will they flip the Up Up Up switch!

Summer lull is nearly over, extremely low volume days. Roughly 0.3% of shares have been traded daily over the summer, next to nothing!

If I was Matt, I would be snapping up every single share anywhere around these levels as a share buyback, they have the cash, and they have shareholders authority!!

Remember, Lord Charles was going to conduct a 6 month review of Strategic Plan/Governance etc, ties in exactly with 15th Sept update!

Oh yeah the politcal quagmire will also end in a few days...

Lets see how this plays out over the coming months... Golden share on the chopping block in 12 months, where will this be in 12 months...

DYOR

How can this be valued at just £180m odd over the last reported cash figure.

Both MM and Chairman have bought a sizeable chunck at significantly higher

PE firms knocked back at circa 200p atleast

Guidance maintained twice

Tailwinds in play

Others in industry reporting bumper results

Citigroup said around 85p mark, current market cap just about covers the Beauty division! Now ingenuity, nutrition and half of beauty in for free Lol

Truly incredible situation. Mind boggles.

2021 ASCL vs THG

Revenue ~x6
EBITDA ~x2
£456m more in cash

Yet THG valued £200m less!! LOL

Make it make sense!

@learn19 - and both MM and Chairman have bought circa £1m each in the last 1-2 months, if that's anything to go by! At now significantly higher prices!

Lord Charles has now had 6 months for a full review. He needs to sort out the reporting, transparency, strategic plan (golden share, premium listing), governance, communication etc. He now has a big incentive with his £1.1m buy at 86p! No holes can be left unplugged. Silence has been deafening since he joined.

We all know Beauty & Health are unique products, consumers dont just give it up, as seen from recent results like Ulta/Boots etc. We live in a camera obsessed instagram/tiktok world, its an addiction! Couple this with sky high petrol prices, more people are staying put at home and buying online!!

All headwinds have now become major tailwinds! Eg if 30% of revenue in dollars, with recent fx movement, on an annual basis thats £100m+ just there!!!! As THG expand globally, more $$$!

In a flip case, a US Private Equity now need to put up 13-14% less than what they would have done compared to only 3-4 months ago!

They can start with a SHARE BUYBACK asap!

With all the cash they have, there is simply no better investment than its own shares! They know their own business better than any other!! If they thought 170p-200p significant/materially undervalued the business, why not snap up these at a huge huge discount!

Jupiter distressed, fine, approach them and just take every share off them at an agreed price! At current price Jupiter Fund could be bought out for £10-15m, maybe even alot less!

Unless the have something else lined up! Let's wait and see.

DYOR.

LOL

Absolutely Insane! No one, absolutely nobody could have envisaged this!

Is there any other company out there whereby 60-70% of market cap is simply covered by cash!!

2 weeks left for the Half Year Update! What a difference 12 months make!! Riding high at 650p+, MM talking about Beauty separation, as he thought the valuation was undervaluing the business, and it was a value adding strategic move! Penny for his thoughts right now!!!

He talked about the pain of UK listing, releasing the Golden Share, and getting THG premium listed, when the share price was 200p+!

He talked about taking it private for the first time last Nov when it was 200p+!

Currently valued @ just 0.25x revenue
If cash deducted, revenue multiple is at 0.06x based on EST 2022 revenues. LMAO

Massively undervalued no matter which metric/peer we look at! We all know this. I guess just got to wait, the golden word, PATIENCE! Lol

A quick reminder:

Pericone MD - $60 million
Dermstore - $350 million
THG nutrition acq - £59.5 million
Brighter Foods - £43 million
Bentley Laboratories - $255m (Add another one to the USA mix, based in NJ, USA)
Cult Beauty - £275 million

Absolutely incredible! Current market cap less than cash acquisitions. Business listed at IPO for £5 Billion+, currently valued in negative territory!!!

2021

USA - 19%
ROW - 18%

With the continues Global expansion, new fulfilment centres in Dubai and New Jersey, acquisitions like Dermstore, would expect USA & ROW to creep up as overall %!

16th Sept 2021 RNS

"Announcing today that THG Beauty is to be separated and listed on a public share-trading exchange in 2022"

Put it this way, how many companies out there have Cash+credit facility = Market Cap???

I'm guessing not many, if any!!!

Yep £700m+available (similar to todays market cap LOL), and cash flow neutral from next year they said!

Tail winds are already picking up, market has got this completely wrong!

It is a case of “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

They have twice maintained guidance, and backed it up with £££million of share purchases!

They have to reveal a full strategic long awaited overview on the 15th!

12 months left of Golden Share expiry Tick Tock... he has to sort this out one way or another very soon!

Chairman joined on 22nd March, he had a clear mandate, at the time saying the review would take 6 months, 5 months are up now, 6 months tie in with the sept update!

In his own words:

- Improve Governance

- Improve transparency

- Improve communication with shareholders and the city

- Strengthen the board

- Review and develop the strategy

- Further strengthen the leadership team

Waiting on all fronts....silence is deafening

And then we have Matts long list... Drop Golden Share, Premium Listing, Separate Listings, commercial details of arms length agreement with Ingenuity etc

The only credit you can give them upto now, they have both backed it up with HUGE buys recently.

Lets wait and see!

Thanks osg. Shows how complete irrational the market has become.

We LTH's/BOD know the complete disconnect between the actual company and the share price!!!

If they sold Beauty on its own, with forecasted revenues of £1.4 billion this year, as Citigroup said at 85p+, it would surpass current market cap!!

Remember since IPO, cash acquisitions was £900m+, current market cap.... Lol

It has truly become bonkers.

They say THG is linked to Nasdaq, well in the last month Nasdaq has rallied, some tech stocks are up 40-50%, and thg has continued to...

Lets see what the long awaited strategic and operational update brings. They must have finalised the roadmap ahead, how they going to add value, now that seperation is complete!

Matt needs to sort this out sooner rather than later, private or not private, 12 months left on his golden share, so action required asap, will never want to take it to the wire.

Let's wait and see.