Member Info for Soupdragon78

I think one of the key takeouts from what I've found is that REDX was valued at £50m before AZ came along due to a few months of other interest picking up the sp.
That is what we are lacking at present.... interest from any interested parties, either buying shares in the market or formulating an approach of some kind for an asset or more.

Indeed it was during pre-clinical.

If NFX achieved the same current value as redx then we'd see an sp of circa 21p. And to be fair redx is down off its high of £230m mcap, which would transpose to an NFX sp of circa 40p.

As a comparison, NFX has often been compared to REDX, with people stating they went from 8p to 100p+. I was curious so had a bit of a look at it.

REDX was hovering around the 6-8p level for ages prior to March 2020, this gave an mcap of around £13m.

It was then subject to an attempted bid to buy the company for 15p which fell through, then a subsequent approach which saw the sp up to around the 25-30p level or mcap around £50m.

It also secured a loan facility for £30m during that time.

It struck an out-license deal for its IPF stream with AstraZeneca in August which propelled the sp up to 65p (£125m mcap). The deal comprised an upfront £17m and then milestones up to £360m.

The sp currently sits at the 65p level once more.

FX, now they have completed (nearly) the feasibility, the drug has to go through non-GLP (Good Lab Practice) and then GLP testing prior to phase 1 trials on humans.
The GLP testing is highly regulated and is required by FDA, EU and OECD countries, and is to ensure the uniformity, consistency, reliability, reproducibility, quality, and integrity of products.

The non-GLP toxicology testing that will happen next will help set up the data for the GLP testing later.

https://www.criver.com/products-services/safety-assessment/toxicology-services/non-glp-acute-toxicology?region=3601

Its an interesting question Mars, the Allenby report identifies 9 IPF treatments in the pipeline, all at phase 2 or beyond. So many more advanced than NXP002, which is planned to be ready in 2029.

What is more pertinent are the number of licensing or M&A deals signed at pre-clinical stage, again the Allenby report identifies 8 of these, of which 2 were undertaken at pre-clincal. Hence NFX are setting out the work for the next year, when its more likely to get a deal around the phase 1 time. The benefit of that is that it is usually for a greater value. i.e. the 9p valuation that Allenby have for end of pre-clinical.

Personally, the value in the near term will be generated by NXP004 being either sold back to the originator or to a generic. I think it will be a while for NXP002 now.

Anyway, thats just the US, there is a big enough market everywhere else anyway.

Agree Older, there must be some way. We know that tranilast is on the banned compunding substance list, so it cannot be used in any form or other drugs.

Good point Mars, I still can't figure out how they get past the FDA having Tranilast on their banned list.

FX, that would already be covered by the current patent.

The patents are not about specific diseases / illnesses etc, they are about the method of creating NXP002 and how its delivered.

Certainly does FX, feels like the reins have now been handed over from Anne.

Spot on SSM, its just small pi's jumping in and out mostly on twitter chat from those who seek to manipulate the price.
The board have done an excellent job this year getting the company back into shape.

People selling at the shareprice the same as the day before the RNS.... just crackers.

FX, it’s more that it was just the data results, it wasn’t an rns with cash numbers attached.

Two factors play into the muted response.

1 - times change, the current climate is not like some the past where stocks would rise on rns’ that didn’t carry material (cash) consideration. I.e driven by sentiment so CEO’s would release an rns on the opening of an envelope.

2 - NFX in the past has risen on hype, this has been seen a few times and then the damage and mistrust was put in place in 2019/20 when we had people saying ‘deal done’ and ‘Kissei are about to sign’ etc.
That has placed a lot of mistrust on people’s minds now. So they wait to see real bottom line progress.

Fact is, regardless of all of the talk of ‘what’s ifs’ NFX are sat on something really good. Even without any licensing deals the IP portfolio must surely be worth a lot more than the MCap.

Whatever next? British Bulls recommendations? Lol.

'Rumour has it that NXP004 is a better version of Lynparza (AstraZeneca)'

Oh really?! I wonder how they came up with that one?

Or oncology drug.

Doesn't help that someone keeps dump 1m shares at a time.

I can see it quite clearly at the top of the list.

It'll take a bit of time FX, a notifiable stake of 3% will cost someone about £325,000 or 17.75m shares.
We've seen how easily the sp moves on large number of buys, it would be difficult for someone to buy that quantity with shifting the sp too much as to make it too expensive.