Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
If the two deep wells currently being tested on Block 8 don't flow, because of blockages/ mud turning to cement-no good acid/ stuck pipes etc. then we'll know it's the drilling crew/ COO who are not up to the job as these two deep wells are drilling to the same depth-conditions-geology as the two deep wells nearby that were drilled successfully by a different crew and have been flowing for yonks.
Surly they'll get at least one of these deep wells to flow, if there's flowing oil, if not then we know what the problem is.
With 6 deep wells expected to be completed over the next 6 months I'm expecting a successful outcome on at least the 802/ A5 deep wells as we know they flow commercial rates of oil and therefore some summer fireworks (The A5 sidetrack is already one month behind?).
No doubt success on Block 8 will light the touch paper, but if not then we'll have to wait for summer.........
Coffeecups,
Drill lengths?
All three wells we're waiting news on have already hit TD month(s) ago.
If you ask me I'd say they're having problems with flowing these wells since they were (now) ready to test the two Block 8 deep wells 5 weeks ago.
Hopefully not, but the length of time it's taking for an update on these three wells isn't reassuring shareholders.
Spuds are behind too, which will no doubt be using the drill strings from these deep wells so perhaps they're waiting to include a couple of spuds in an all singing and dancing RNS, hence the delay in news?
Badgernator,
The same can be said for a lot of sells popping up re bad flow test news leaked. The two deep wells are at least a week apart and the 142 Shallow Well is further down the ready to test road so if a leak were to happen I'd guess we'd see multiple large buys/ sells over weeks as each wells flow test results become known - before an RNS was issued.
Obviously CASP is still a tight ship when it comes to leaks - if flow rates are commercial on either of these two Block 8 deep wells and the 142 Shallow Well hasn't drilled into the OWC again we'll only get to know through an RNS and not a leak.
I'm optimistic that at least one of these two Block 8 deep wells that are drilling the two new structures could flow oil with oil currently flowing on the next door structure where the depths being drilled to are the same, along with the 142 Shallow Well pumping oil from above the OWC as they've probably got around a thirty foot oil interval to work in.
No news is good so they say or is that leaks?
I imagine we’re all expecting an all in one block buster RNS confirming flow rates results from three wells and at least three spuds, though I suspect the delays are due to consumable deliveries from China being the source of the operational delays as they’ mentioned being a concern in their last RNS.
If they are waiting on a spud/ flow test before issuing an RNS so be it, but instead of an ‘all in one’ RNS I’d prefer it if they’d release an RNS per spud and well result keeping a steady news flow going. They said flow testing was ready to start a month ago so what’s the hang up if not deliveries, blocked frack holes, mud turning into cement or dropped cameras?
An initial three day flow test should have been done by now and a spud or two to boot, are they waiting for a spud(s) to hide bad news?
Another next week then Rodder’s....
We’re entering a couple of operation stages re news flow on:
The two Block 8 deep wells and the 142 Shallow Well flow testing results and at least three spud updates, which are all imminent – stage 1.
The mid-term news I.e. the Block 8 regulations being signed off and further shallow wells being spud and the 802 Deep Well flowing again in early Q1 with perhaps a new CE charter in the mix and production flow increase updates to boot. Stage 2.
The next big news period thereafter will come in April-June when the A5-A7 and 802-803 deep wells have been drilled (802 Deep Well hopefully a lot sooner) and are being flow tested with possibly a new CPR towards YE. Stage 3.
The second half of 2024 will be about re-drilling the A6-801 Deep Wells and possibly another Block 8 Deep Well or working to increase the current 110 bopd back to 800 bopd with the freed up rigs with production increasing throughout next year.
The next 6 months will be very busy with a possible entry of a Major by YE and Miss Piggy headlining on Stage 4 ;-)
Nothings happening with the CE until next Summer, however we may get a new charter agreement for 2025 as CASP say they are in discussions (noted in the last RNS for hire not to sell), but no doubt there will be an options for a second drill in 2024 if the first well is successful. Imo.
More interestingly it's a month next week since the last Op’s Update said they were NOW ready to test the deep wells from a month earlier preparations, the 142 Shallow Well can’t be far behind to boot.
News next week Rodder’s..............
May 29, 2018 - CASP website.
''As previously announced our plan to bring Deep Well 801 into production was by drilling a side track of between 450 – 500 meters from a starting depth of 4,501 meters.
Having identified potential oil bearing (net-pay) intervals covering in aggregate 121 meters so far during the drilling of the side-track, we have decided to stop the side-track at a depth of 4,851 meters and, after running and cementing a 5-inch liner to the full depth of the side-track, to test the well.
Four potentially oil bearing intervals have been identified during drilling and supported by mud log data. The first of 6 meters between 4,535 and 4,541 meters; the second is of 20 meters between 4,554 and 4,694 meters; the third is of 59 meters meters between 4,635 and 4,694 and the fourth is of 36 meters between 4,812 and 4,848 meters.
The pressure in Well 801 remains high indicating good connectivity. As the side-track has been drilled using lower density drilling mud we expect the task of getting the well to flow to allow testing to commence should be easier than previously drilled deep wells.''
31 October,
''At Well 802 the problem has been our inability to remove a stuck pipe to allow the well to be properly tested. Work at Well 802 has now stopped to allow the rig to be used to drill Well 803 the last of the deep wells in our BNG work programme, which is due to be spudded in mid-November and drilled to a planned depth of 3,950 meters. Drilling is expected to complete by March 2024.''
I find it hard to believe the 803 Deep Well is only drilling to a depth of 3,950m when between 4,535m and 4,848m there are 4 very thick net-pay intervals (at least 121m of net-pay) deeper down as found in the 801 Deep Well, which could be connected to each other (and the 802 Deep Well) and oil bearing. Why are they not using the more powerful G70 rig to drill the 803 Deep Well deeper down, which has apparently been sat there for many months doing nothing since drilling the A8 Deep Well?
The 803 Deep Well should have spud by now.
Before CASP do a new CPR I would think they would prefer to get the majority of the below wells flowing for 90 days first. Drilling and flow testing all the deep/ shallow wells is going to take us into 2025 so I’d guess a new CPR would be done between Q4 2024 and Q3 2025 - realistically with looking at booking in initial deep P1-P2 Reserves (especially with some wells flowing for 12 months).
So with at least 7/8 shallow wells (4 wells will be testing the unexplored Dolomite reservoir) and 6 deep wells still to redrill-drill I can see a double digit share price based on the success of the 2 Block 8 deep wells if they flow with a further share price jump when the Reg’s have been signed off in Q1 2024? (A5 Deep Well took the share price to 14p when it initially flowed), and the rest of the wells could take the share price to high double digits. I can see the MC easily £600m on these wells flowing.
Wells 142 and 141
Well 155
Wells 54, 805, 806 & 807
Wells 801-2-3
Wells A5-6-7
We’re not far off knowing if the tide has turned with two deep wells about to be flow test(ed) on Block 8, they could have a significant impact on the share price if successful, especially with the 142 Shallow Well being the icing on the cake in the short term - plus spuds/ production increases/ CE sale/ other in the short term. Imo.
31 October,
‘’Well 155 is due to be spudded before the end of November and drilled to a depth of approximately 3,000 meters with drilling expected to be completed by the end of Q1 2024.’’
‘’Well 803 the last of the deep wells in our BNG work programme, which is due to be spudded in mid-November and drilled to a planned depth of 3,950 meters. Drilling is expected to complete by March 2024.’’
‘’At Deep Well A5 the plan remains to drill a new side track using one of the rigs recently in use at Block 8, with work starting in November.
‘’Drilling at Deep Well A7, was paused at a depth of 2,000 meters. The plan is to use the G70 rig previously used to drill Deep Well A8 to finish drilling Well A7 to a maximum depth of 4,750 meters.’’
That’s potentially four wells about to spud with three wells being flow tested - that’s going to be some Op’s Update.
If these two other structures on Block 8 flow they’re going to have to do a new CPR, which in turn should lead to the current P2 numbers for the shallows moving over to P1 Reserves and the shallower oil in the deeps (802/803) adding to the P1/P2 numbers too, we know the A5/ 802 Deep Wells flowed commercially - the P1/P2 Reserves increase is going to blow the share price from todays 3p into the stratosphere.
Roll on a new CPR and let the bids begin.........
From 31 October RNS,
‘’At Well 142 the side track is almost complete and ready for testing, which if successful would lead to the well contributing to increased production levels from mid-November.’’
‘’Drilling at the two deep wells undertaken by CTS, the Group's wholly owned drilling subsidiary, has been completed with both now preparing for testing.’’
It will have been three weeks since the last Op's Update tomorrow, that’s plenty of time to cement, frack and flow test these three wells hopefully seeing production dramatically increased.
Lift off next week at long last could be on the cards, an exciting week ahead for sure.