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Cont.......
All in all the work that should have been done in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 have all been pushed into Q3 2024 so hopefully (there's that word again) summer will be much better than the start of this year.
A very large pinch of realism is needed if you guys think the deeps will be flowing in March-April.
With all 4 deep structures possibly flowing mid year thing are looking up at long last............
March or April for the deeps? - Not a chance!
The 803 Deep Well has been averaging 3m per day for 3 months - that's 500m drilled in 3 months with another 3,700m still to drill!
The A7 Deep well took 4 months to drill to 2,150m with another 3,150m still to drill, and the well has still not spud!
Shallow Well 155 is still waiting to spud after drilling the 142 Shallow Well shambles, which will take 4 months to drill, so June-July to flow test it.
The A5 Deep Well should have spud mid-November last year and has yet to start drilling the sidetrack - it's beyond a joke!
802 Deep Well has 3,400m of stuck pipe remaining and still no specialist 'partner' on board to try and remove it!
Both Block 8 Deep Wells are still waiting to have Regulations passed, so they can get on with fracking/cementing and flow testing the wells!
801 and A6 Deep Well to be decided on when A7- 802-3 Deep Wells results are known.
Also the reason they have now dropped their CE payment from $15m to $10-15m is because : 62 days of planned drilling * $150,000 per day = $9,300,000 plus a 15 day 'potential' delay factored on top adds another 'possible' $2,250,000 so they'll get around $9,300,000 and $11,550,000 far below the initial $15,000,000 touted!
And they're getting $32-$34 pboo Gross which after taxes and transports cost will probably be around half of that - what are the trucking costs $10 per barrel?
Production down 800 bopd since Q4 2022 - BoD who sign off the RNS's have been telling us more porkies stating production was 2,000 bopd for the last 6 months when in fact it's been around 1,600 bopd! Is CC have a laugh with hi one-liner ''With the return of Well 142 production levels are moving in the right direction'' - LOL 1,900 bopd is still less than reported multiple times, but yeah better than 1,600 bopd...........
Possible short term news is Block 8 regulations passed and they can get on with flow testing both wells - they will need to bring back one or both rigs to do this, which are currently being used elsewhere - I don't see them using a workover rig to do this work unless they've already done the work and just waiting for Regulations to pass so they can announce the flow test results?
802 Deep Wells stuck pipe removed in the next couple of months.
141 Shallow Well needs 27m of stuck pipe removing so they can start sidetracking the well.
Another shallow well (807) flows next month.
A5 Deep Well sidetrack started.
The biggest news for me in the last RNS is the Dolomite reservoir is flowing - how thick is the 160 bopd interval and how far does is stretch?
All in all the work that should have been done in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 have all been pushed into Q3 2024 so hopefully (there's that word again) summer will be much better than the start of this year.
A very large pinch of realism is needed if you guys think the deeps will be flowing in March-April.
With all 4 deep structures possibly flowing mid year thin
''A G70 rig recently acquired from Sinopec is being tested with the resumption of drilling at Deep Well A7.''
What does this mean ''is being tested '' - why is the G70 rig being tested when it drilled the A8 Deep Well last year to over 5,200m? - recently required ' lol.
Has the A7 Deep Well actually started drilling yet or is the G70 rig being tested first before drilling resumes?
Who writes these updates?
21 December - ''Work has started at Well 805 drilling horizontal side-tracks at a depth of 2,222 meters targeting the dolomite. The G20 rig in use will conduct similar side-tracks in turn at wells 806, 807 and 54.''
31 October - ''Wells 54, 805, 806 & 807 are to be worked over using a G20 rig starting in Q1 2024 at depths of approximately 2,000 meters targeting the previously unexplored Dolomite.''
I was surprised to see Well 805 being worked on this month (already spud - Jan?) as they said work would start Q1 2024 - I was thinking perhaps 2 of these wells would complete next year after a typical CASP late start, but I now think they may complete all 4 wells - one well per quarter? They're drilling the 805 sidetrack horizontally to 2,222m into the unknown Dolomite zone, at what depth are they starting re-drilling from 1,000m?
142 Shallow Well - how far was the none commercial sidetrack from the original 1,400 bopd interval, was the same interval drilled into and also found too much water ingress? Hopefully the other interval currently being drilled is commercial - news January? Then onto spudding Well 155 - interestingly this well is the final MJF shallow well.
A7 Deep Well - I don't think this has started re-drilling yet as it sounds like they are still testing the G70 rig - I originally thought it would take around 5 months to complete the A7 Deep Well using the G50 rig, but the G70 rig is a more powerful rig so perhaps TD will be sooner? Note the A8 Deep Well took way over a year to compete using the G70 rig.
They may not spud the A9 Deep Well next year after the A7 Deep Well (drilling commitments have finished with the 803 Deep Well), but if they do it's expected to widen the parameter of the Airshagyl structure. The CE dosh may be a factor to spud it?
A5 Deep Well - What's happening with it? It was planned to spud mid-November, perhaps they're still waiting for one of the Block 8 rig/ crew?
Understandably there are some doubts about the Block 8 wells flowing as Carver tends to get excited releasing positive news early and would have expect some new if positive by now regardless of regs being signed off.
803 Deep Well - Hopefully no stuck pipes and a summer TD.
So after the 803 Deep Well and Well 155 have completed drilling that will be three structures the Yelemes Deep, Airshagyl and MJF on BNG that will have completed their drilling programmes, though they are going to re-drill the 54, 805, 806 and 807 wells on the South Yelemes I'm not sure if this structure has completed it's drilling programme too - I would guess it has.
Which means they could be up for selling BNG next year having a much better understanding of what they might have re T/O price tag?
Then onto drilling Block 8 deep wells again, unless someone wants to buy the whole shebang?
Just doodling.........
Coffeecups,
''Work at Well 802 has now stopped to allow the rig to be used to drill Well 803 the last of the deep wells in our BNG work programme, which is due to be spudded in mid-November and drilled to a planned depth of 3,950 meters. ''
What happened to the A5 Deep Well spudding mid-November and the 141 Shallow Well was supposed to spud this month, how's the 802 Deep Wells stuck pipe removal going and the two Block 8 deep wells - are they waiting for the KAZ/UAE to sign off the transfer before updating the market on the testing outcome?
CE profit will be between $10m-$15m? They're getting $150k per day so they must think they can drilling the well faster hence the minimum $10m.
142 Shallow Well result is disappointing hopefully the other interval flows, strange as the original interval flowed at 1,400 bopd.
Good news the 803 Deep Well has spud.
Are the testing the G70 rig before spudding the A7 Deep Well or has drilling commenced?
Not the RNS we were hoping for with so much info missing - pretty much a damp squib if you ask me.
Divermike,
Tell me something I don't know and you shouldn't have to guess where they're at every few months!
The 150 well? You must mean the 155 Shallow Well that should have spud before the end of last month along with other wells that should have spud much sooner - I'd be very very disappointed if they've only spud one well since the last RNS stating they were planning to spud several wells 2 months ago that as far as we know haven't come to fruition.
Saying 'this is CASP' is no excuse for them not updating the market on wells that have spud/ flowed or not.
I've been investing in oil companies for 25 years and CASP are the worst for reporting correct information and timely updates, they are also my largest holding to boot.
What is very irritating is there's been no news on any of the wells that should have spud by now, including the A7 Deep well, 5 wells should have spud by now re the 155-141-A5-803 wells along with the 142 Shallow Well and the two Block 8 deep wells hitting TD nearly two months ago to boot.
I hope Carver has already started writing the next Operation Update, because he'll need lots of ink to explain why there's been such a long delay in updating shareholders on the progress of the above wells.
Like I said for the past couple of years they've released an Operation Update on 22 December so perhaps next Friday is when we'll get to know what's been happening with these three wells/ three spuds, hopefully sooner, which will be nearly thee months since the Block 8 wells hit TD and almost two months since these two deep wells and the 142 Shallow Well were pretty much ready to start flow testing, even so they should have at least reported on any spud(s) that were planned for November etc..
We've got 4 BNG deep wells about to be drilled so hopefully good news in mid-Q2, a year late but this is the oil business where unforeseen delays can be long and frustrating at best.
On a positive note, hopefully not three blushers but three gushers next week Rodder's.
Kheldar,
How long has it taken for the 3B permit to be passed? How long will it take the Kaz and UAE to sign off on the Block 8 purchase? It could takes months before CASP can book any oil from the sale due to delays in a sign-off, Carver has highlighted in RNS's how they are about to test these two deep wells and imo if they flow he will tell us before any sign-off, he won't wait for what could be months, once signed-off then he can book whatever oil Reserves/ production, it doesn't matter if he tells us beforehand what the flow rates are.
If they have already spud any wells/ sidetracks then they should tell us as and when and the same goes for flow test results good or bad to boot.
As stated in the last RNS 6 weeks ago the 142 Shallow Well was expected to be flowing by mid-November if successful, it's not looking good, is it a frack blockage/ another OWC being the cause of another month long delay in updating shareholders of the wells progress? If there were to be a good/bad news leak it would would have been out by now, obviously CASP are a tight ship.
Block 8 - it's been 6 weeks since that last update on the 2 deep wells that were ready to 'now' test, the pessimist in me says its not looking good as if one well was flowing they would have reported it already with Carver's typical excited exuberance. The optimist in me says they haven't started flow testing the wells yet or have only just started hence the delay.
A5/803/155 wells were supposed to have spud by now (two wells a month ago), normally we would get a RNS confirming a well has spud so why no updates on wells/ sidetracks commencing, has the 802 Deep Well stuck pipe been removed yet?
Yep shareholders should be concerned with these delays, why does CC give estimated time frames when he knows they never happen?
Tomorrow Rodders....