Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
BM,
Note:
''Airshagyl: Based on our volumetric assessment, we estimate that the company’s deep Airshagyl field would recover 305 million barrels of oil under a success-case.''
Then add the SY Deep oil - how much?
Then add Block 8 oil - how much?
How much would CASP's potential 305m barrels of Reserves - plus SY/ Block 8/ shallows/ other be worth, I'm thinking a billion bucks would be selling us far short.
BM,
FYI
21p WHI Fair Value Estimate
Having reported 2021 production of 1,462 barrels of oil per day, investors can expect significant production growth from Caspian Sunrise’s shallow oilfields, namely, the MJF and South Yelemes oilfields. Already, the company reported recent production (22 December 2022) of 2,300 barrels of oil per day – all from its shallow MJF field – after bringing its first two horizontal wells onstream. The company continues to advance well completion methodologies that are intended to unlock the world-class potential of its deep assets, namely, the Airshagyl and Deep Yelemes oilfields. Having emerged from a context of distress into a position of strength with a positive outlook, we ascribe a fair value estimate of 21p to Caspian Sunrise (see Table 1), from “Under Review”, of which 7.9p relates to the company’s shallow assets with the remainder relating to its deep assets. We estimate that the full success case value of the company’s assets amounts to 102p. We include 100% of the value of the company’s shallow assets and 10% of the value of the company’s deep assets in our fair value estimate.
MJF Structure: Caspian Sunrise completed its first horizontal well, Well 154, on 26 April 2021 – drilled into the MJF structure. On production, the well produced at a stable rate of 600 barrels of oil per day with higher peak production on short-term tests. The well essentially transformed the productive potential of the MJF structure by showing that horizontal wells can achieve production rates that are multiples higher than the production rates of standard, vertical wells. On 13 October 2021, the company completed its second horizontal well, Well 153, which produced at a commercial, stable rate of circa 830 barrels of oil per day. Both of the company’s horizontal wells continue to produce at stable rates near levels of 600 barrels of oil per day. We believe that horizontal wells have transformed Caspian Sunrise’s growth potential and financial outlook.
Airshagyl: Based on our volumetric assessment, we estimate that the company’s deep Airshagyl field would recover 305 million barrels of oil under a success-case. The field is both deep and significantly overpressured, which creates drilling challenges pursuant to which the field has yet to establish long-term stable oil flow – effectively the field has been produced at highly significant short-term rates from one deep well (2,000 barrels of oil per day). Like at the super-giant Tengiz field (9 billion barrels of recoverable oil) that is circa 40km away, the appraisal/testing period has been challenging. The company is hopeful that it will improve its well drilling/completion methodologies to allow the reservoir to produce at its full potential at stable rates. The company announced on 25 January 2022 that the recently drilled Deep Well A8 produced at a stable rate of 120 barrels of oil per day (from only one of three productive intervals) fo
Belles,
It's true I am flawless, but not the Flawless 😉
I forgot to add to the list of CASP's assets re their drill company which employs 150 people and has 5 powerful drilling rigs in it's self worth a few quid. A fun fact is that even with all that muscle and horse power they'd still find near impossible to drill through the deepest of deep wells than Coffeemug's thick skull.
On a serious note I've given two potential valuations on what I think the two shallows structures might be worth based on WH Ireland 7.9p value and the carry value both of which come to over $200 million, which is enough for CASP to start their FDP and throw us a few crumbs, though the big ask is will there be a big enough premium to satisfy Kuat Oraziman?
There are so many Majors in the area/ world who could take CASP out in a blink of an eye, but how much would the WCP be willing to accept?
WH Ireland valued CASP at £1.02 per share and that was before CE/ Block 8/ A3B/ Trading Company/ shallow Dolomite discovery/ BNG deep international license about to be applied for etc., if CASP sell the shallows they will also be a cash cow with perhaps a few hundred million in the bank to boot.
Oil $90 pboo/ peak oil is already here/ Companies are looking to increase their Reserves and CASP have massive acreage with many Prospects-Targets still to drill-identify/ with some 2D-3D seismic.
Another way of valuing the shallows as a bench mark is WH Ireland valued the shallows at 7.9p possibly without the Dolomite oil.
2.25 billion shares in issue * 7.9p is approx. $225 million for both of the shallow structures.
Add a possible premium - several bidders and who knows?
CASP is a one stop shop.
SmartyP1,
There's a good chance the A5 Deep Well will spud next week with the rig being onsite - TD end of May if we're lucky.
We may not know when the A5 sidetrack has begun as they've been including spuds within general Operational Updates so we may not get another op's RNS until the 155 Shallow Well has been completed next month?
Any news on license updates or a Specialist onboard to remove the 802 stuck pipe I would expect to be in a separate RNS.
We should see another 500k trade today ;-)
SmartyP1,
From the last RNS.
''The licence renewal is also required to allow the resumption of production at Block 8 and to allow testing of the two Block 8 deep wells completed in 2023.''
Divermike,
Block 8 was producing 110 bopd from 2 wells on the first structure.
Mrcautious,
Yesterday you said - ''I am just south of 500K as I have said this was never a major holding for me...''.
Yet just over a week ago you said - ''Well 50p would be nice but im not heavily in this stock so even 50p would only net me about £30k.'' - Which by my maths means you would have to be holding around 60,000 shares.
This time last year you said - ''I only hold about 200K''. - hmm obviously you've been buying more since then.
So your just south of a million shares would be worth around £20,000 today and 500,000 shares if sold at 50p would be worth £250,000.
Are my maths wrong or do I smell BS - care to explain how 50p would net you £30,000 today if you have approx. 500,000 shares?
I'm in New York atm and have heard on the grapevine a WCP contact has been over heard saying a supermajor has tabled a $501,000,000 bid for the Shallows of which $500,000,000 is being paid out as a one-off dividend leaving $1 million in the kitty to keep the lights on, and also CASP are in talks with The Bank of England to raise a loan to cover the whole of the one-off payment!
Coffeemug will be pleased. ;- )
Coffeemug,
I like a good wine and Cork is a lovely place thanks - maybe one day you'll be able to afford to go?
Anyway enjoy your glass of Thunderbirds - don't worry you'll be able to buy a nice bottle of wine with your $200 million dividend share.
MMMMMWWWWWHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
Coffeemug,
Sure was.
Sorry I didn't understand your reply were you implying you're playing with the blokes goolies whose sat next to you?
Tell me how many pence per share is 50% of $200m dividend payout per share to shareholders?
I may have to get a bigger calculator to work out my one-off payment lol!
You always throw a psychotic wobbler when I tick you off for posting nonsense, wonky entertainment at it's best!
There'll soon be a $200 million dividend paid out and a gigantic loan to replace it!
You couldn't make it up.
BM,
Don't be fooled with his guff he's deadly serious.
Entertainment at its best.
"If the shallows get $300k he can take 50% of any dividend, he can leave some in for deeps field development and borrow the rest."
You couldn't make it up. Lol