Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
SmartyP1,
The 70k barrels per month will be coming from the shallows (3k+ bopd). This is the expected amount of oil CASP will continue to produce if they don't sell the shallows, they have to continue with this 70k line because they may not sell the shallows.
As for a special dividend there will be one but how much will depend on the sales price of the shallows. Do not listen to Coffeemug spouting nonsense like KO will be taking a $100 million special one-off payment - if he did give himself $100m then shareholders would have to get the same amount and CASP are not going to pay out a $200 million one-off payment.
CASP will have a ton of cash from the sale of the shallows of which the bulk will go towards the FDP.
Think about it, here's some round numbers - say $20m for 15k bopd storage tank (they will need a couple if Block 8 is a gusher), $20m for pipeline, 4 wells per pad from A5/A6/A7 and 801/ 802/ 803 deep wells that's approx. $120m for 24 appraisal wells, then there's the development of Block 8 another 6 wells? and more 3D seismic data to gather there's $200 million just there and they will probably want to keep $50 million in cash to keep the lights on and for other projects (solar/ mineral mining projects etc..).
So if CASP are lucky enough to get anywhere near $300m there could be a large one-off dividend payment split between the WCP and shareholders, I'd guess around $20 million, less if a lower offer is accepted? What happens if they only sell one shallow structure - special dividend $5 million?
The shallow production will be replaced with production from the deeps - they've got 5 deep BNG wells currently being worked on and 2 deep wells on Block 8 to test - with so much spare cash they will have plenty of time to get the deep oil flowing before running out of cash, we'll probably see deep oil flowing this year anyway replacing the shallow oil production. The A5 deep well was initially pumping 3,800 bopd and that was without all the drilling fluid removed, this well alone can replace the shallow oil, we'll get to know in May.
If they got $10 bucks for the 1P Reserves there's $150 million and if they can move 15 million barrels over from the 2P Reserves to the 1P Reserves that's $300 million (plus potential Reserves/ bidding war etc..).
When you have a number of Majors bidding a sale will happen.
Anyway that's the way I see it mostly panning out so don't worry about the coffers being blown on a one-off dividend, it's not going to happen.
The two shallow structures have around 14m 1P and 25m 2P Reserves with new Reserves still to add from the new Dolomite structure (will they do a new CPR after the 155 well? increasing Reserves and therefore the bid - after 10 years since the last CPR we have a lot more wells and shallow production to factor in, which should uplift the current Reserves).
When we know the offer price for the two shallow structures it should give us a good idea of what price the buyer is putting on the shallow Reserves, which will lead to us being able to guestimate a rough price the two deep BNG structures might be sold for.
A new BNG CPR will have to be done at some point (perhaps this year after A5/A7/802/803 Deep Well results and full deep licenses granted). The 1P/ 2P Reserve numbers should be much higher than the shallows with the deep structures being much bigger (more valuable lighter oil to boot).
So as an example if bigger Airshagyl structures initial 1P Reserves were say 50m and the 2P Reserves were 100m and the smaller Yelemes Deep structure had say 40m 1P and 80m 2P (OIP could be 1-2 billion) we could times the sale price of the shallow Reserves by $X amount to give an idea of what the BNG deeps were worth.
If the shallows were sold for say $300 million? then we could be looking at a billion dollars plus for the deeps. There's going to be a premium for future 'potential' Reserves added no matter (the OIP could have a 30% plus RF?).
Remember what we finally get pence wise per share will depend on the $/£ exchange rate, the pound has been strengthening against the dollar - we want a weak pound.
Who knows what happens re T/O, but one things for sure, if there are multiple Majors bidding for the Shallows they'll be multiple Majors bidding for the Deeps!
Anyway just doodling.....
Do they get the shares if T/O is say $1B.?
As for example M/C will be higher than $800M, but won't have been for a month.
If T/O is over 36p do their various price target shares kick-in granting them all those shares even though the share price wouldn't have stayed atbthe various prices for a month?
If a T/O happens do they only get paid on the shares they already have?
I've not checked the above, has anyone?
...a few weeks later.
Just to add if the A5 Deep Well is successful they could start drilling the A7 Deep Well again in May, which should take about 4/5 months to hit 5,300m TD, at the current snail drill pace the 803 Deep Well could TD not long after.
On Monday the rig was in place to resume work at Deep Well A5 readying to drill a 400m sidetrack from 4,500m. If drilling has started by next Monday we could have news out before the end of April if they're drilling at 20m per day - how long will they flow the well before updating us, 3 days? No blockages please.
The 155 Shallow Horizontal Well was flying at around 30m per day by mal calcs so we could have another Well result a few later, earlier than expected.
If CASP manage to get any where near $200m-$300m for the two shallow structures they will have enough to start the BNG FDP and build an oil pipeline to boot.
I keep thinking with that much available funding the BNG deep structures will look like Swiss Cheese.
Smile, say cheese...😁
the board has in recent months entered into a number of discussions with potential buyers concerning the bng shallow mjf and south yelemes structures at indicative prices potentially significantly greater than its current carrying value.
note buyer(s).
note price(s).
so a possible bidding war for each of the two shallow structure.
an 'indicative' price for each structure seems to have been aired? atm i'd say the mjf structure will gain the higher bid price - though the sy structures recent dolomite discovery could prove substantial in adding to reserves for this structure and therefore a higher bid price - from initial talks in the last few months.
the ''current carrying value'' is not the mc.
the carrying value will be based on the current shallow 1p-2p reserves and potential future reserves increases of each shallow structure which share 15m 1p and 25m 2p reserves - not sure how these reserves are split, which will lead to different price offers per structure.
will casp get a premium offer for the shallows? yes with multiple interested parties bidding, imo.
hopefully there's no discount of their net oil revenue per barrel of oil or % of the current share price over say 5 days etc..
will casp do a new cpr increasing reserves with the new sy dolomite oil to uplift the reserves?
i've said before the data room door will be being knocked on or is that banged on ;-)
full value estimate - *** packet value:
15m 1p reserves at $33 gross pboo/ $15 net? = 17p / 8p per share accordingly - it's been know for companies to pay full value with multiple parties involved and the need for building reserves - plus casp have 25m of 2p reserves at $? pboo = ? to factor in + potential.
there are a lot of international majors in the area and the chinese in particular do like to make a good offer ;- )
WH Ireland have the shallow structures valued at 7.9p that estimate is without the newly flowing Dolomite structure.
They have 15m P1 barrels and 25m P2 barrels - this will have increased with new wells Dolomite oil.
We're probably looking 6p-9p for the sale of the shallow structures, imo.
A5 Deep Well is about to spud at long last but it doesn't look like the A7 Deep Well will spud until after the A5 Deep Well results?
The 803 Deep Well is still drilling at a glacial pace.
806 Shallow Well next changed from 807.
A full BNG deep license approved possibly as early as Q4 after 803 Deep Well has completed (September?) along with renewed Block 8 license in Q3-4.
The 155 Shallow Well (currently at 1,000m) will no doubt have to be completed before any shallow offers are in, imo.
CE confirmed on track.
All in all a damp squib apart from A5 Deep Well about to spud/ Corp news.
In the short term there are 5 wells expected to start drilling along with the Block 8 Regulations signed off and a Specialist onboard to remove the 141/ 802 stuck pipes (hopefully CASP can get the 141 Shallow Wells 27m stuck pipe removed themselves).
Considering CASP's glacial pace with mobilizing and testing re the A5-A7 Deep Wells (still planning 6 weeks ago - and a lot longer than that ZzZzZzZz) and still trying to find a Specialist (6 months+) to remove the stuck pipes I'm not expecting an Op's Update until next month.
The next Op's RNS will be about setting the foundations to finally finishing these deep wells with results expected several months later so I don't expect any meat on the bones re deep results until the third or fourth Op's Update is out - in the summer - Q4.
Block 8 Regulations signed off will probably be announce in a separate RNS and a Specialist onboard in another RNS. IMO.
141/807/155/A5/A7 Reg's/ Specialist/ Block 8 news due next month is my guess.
Hopefully Block 8 Reg's will have been sorted (8 months now) and a Specialist is onboard ( 6months+) so we can crack on with these wells next month but I'm not holding my breath....
I'm wondering if the delays are mainly down to product dropping from 2k bopd to 1,600 bopd through the first half of the year therefore having an impact on the timing of drilling the deep wells re available dosh? Why has it taken over 8 months to mobilize one of the G40 rigs on Block 8 - why are they still testing the G70 rig after it drilled the A8 Deep Well 12 months ago - dosh problems I'll bet.
Lies and excuses need to end.
Dunga oil field:
Jurassic Approx. 750m barrels + 6b cmg
850k bopy = 2.3k bopd
The Bunga project will be developed with an estimated investment of $300m - who's going to partner/ buy CASP to complete the FDP?
CASP have oil not only in the Jurassic period, but in several periods and Block 8 to boot.
Farm Out next year for sure or total sale?
Trust me we won't have to wait a millennia :- o
Av $33 pb × 1,950 bopd = approx $64K pd Gross revenue at th moment with approx $10 million due in Q3-4 with several shallow/ deep wells expected to flow by then, if they do you can treble+ today's production levels.
A big 2H for CASP is on the cards.
Bob, it's possible after a month they've managed to pull the 27m of stuck pipe out and the well is flowing as you imply, let's hope they have removed the pipe themselves with no Specialists taking a cut of production, with other news due to boot.
''However, in its filings, Permnipineft warned that pre-drill preparations may require the contractor to drop thousands of tonnes of stones to the sea bottom at the drilling site to aid a successful installation of the barge, because the expected water depth at the location is eight metres.''
I think that pretty much confirms the Contractor will bear the cost for installing the barge.
CASP should get between $9.3m and $11.5M for hiring the drill ship out and any upgrades are paid for by the Contractor to boot.
Another month has passed and CASP are still 'planning' to drill the A7 Deep Well and still 'planning' to mobilize a G40 rig from Block 8 to drill the A5 Deep Well and still waiting to spud the 807/ 155 Shallow Wells and still waiting to pull the stuck piping out of wells 141 Shallow Well and the 802 Deep Well.
I plan to wait ; -)
By Divermike.
going on
MJF:- Shallows
141:- Spud 2015 depth 2500m Sidetrack as per 142
142:- Spud 2015 depth 2500m Nearly completed sidetrack
143:- Spud 2013 depth 2750m Tender for pipe lines to GZU Oct 2023
144:- Spud 2017 depth 2750m up to 700 BOPDs 7mm choke
145:- Spud 2017 depth 2750m New sidetrack required
146:- Spud 2017 depth 2750m
150:- Spud 2019, 1st infill well, up to 500 BOPDs
151:- Spud 2020, 3rd infill well
152:- New well planned as a horizontal drill
153:- Spud 2020 depth 2503m Workover in prog 830 BOPDs 8.5mm choke
154:- Spud 2021 depth 2548m, up to 645 BOPDs
155:- Spud expected Q4 2023
South Yelemes:- Shallows
54:- Soviet sub economic 30BOPD
805:- 150 BOPD in aggregate with 806 and 807
806:- See 805
807:- See 805
808:- Spud 2017 3200m 6 intervals potential new structure
Yelemes Deeps:-
801:- Sinopec drill, Drilled to 5050m waiting for rig
802:- Stuck pipe
803:- Spud expected Q4 2023 target depth 4350m
804:- New well planned
Airshagyl deeps:-
A1:- Maps only
A2:- No mention on any maps
A3:- Maps only
A4:- Maps only
A5 – New sidetrack Q4 2023
A6- Repair required Q4 2023
A7- At 2000m to be continued to 5300m Q1 2024
A8- Abandoned
A9 New well planned
A10 New well planned
Block 8 Deeps:-
Well A:- A+B Combined 110 BOPDs up to 800 BOPDs
Well B:-
AKD-4:- Reached target depth 3922m
T-2D:- Reached 3408m target 3500m
Additional fields
Nsanovskoye Field:-
Tolkyn Field:-
Saztobe Field:-
Tasym and Bekbolat Field:-
You would think so re news out within the next 4 weeks with the following wells about to spud/ sidetrack etc. 807-155-141 Shallow Wells and the A5-A7 Deep Wells and the 802 possibly being contracted out this month.
I think we'll see at least 3 wells spud this month with possible Block 8 regulations signed off to boot.
So yeah news before month end is very likely.
Looking forward to seeing the A5-A7 Deep Wells finally drilling again.