Member Info for snoopz

@bidboy

New handle, but same old troll nonsense!

It always comes back to the Magic Bid. We know you’ll be harping on about this as you love winding people up, but it’s still surprising how many otherwise rational investors take it seriously. The facts don’t support it as successive UK governments — across party lines — have made it clear that BT is a critical national infrastructure. Under the National Security and Investment Act 2021, the government has already shown its willingness to block strategic acquisitions. When Patrick Drahi’s Altice built an 18% stake, the Business Secretary warned they would “not hesitate to act.” Drahi had to reassured Westminster he had no takeover intentions. Today, with a Labour government backed by unions openly opposed to any such deal, the political barriers are even stronger.

Sunil Mittal, has publicly stated he has “no intention” of launching a bid, describing BT simply as a “good, long-term investment” and an “attractive buy,” not a target.

So, to believe a takeover is imminent, you’d have to believe that:

- The UK government would allow disruption to one of the few national utilities currently functioning relatively well.

- The unions would quietly roll over and accept it.

- Sunil Mittal is lying through his teeth and secretly preparing a bid.

The Board might well be tempted, but this is way beyond their control!

@IP3LY

So what is this Broker saying that is new and would have a dramatic affect on the share price?

@Clued

There is absolutely NO chance of a takeover of BT or flotation of Openreach in the near future!

@Bulsara

That's his problem. PRK1 bailed out at £1.46 a couple of years back, so every time the BT price falls back he's on here trying to justify his original decision!

@PRK1

No one can say for certain who will win this new space race—indeed, it may fizzle out altogether under the weight of technological constraints or unsustainable costs. The only reason you’re backing Vodafone/AST is because you have skin in the game as a VF investor. If I were a betting man (which I am) it would be backing the team with the deepest funding, proven technology, and the largest pool of engineers. That doesn’t sound like the plucky little outfit with a few hundred million in the bank, who have only managed to launch half a dozen satellites so far.

PRK1

You seem rather obsessed with the idea of Starlink’s move into IoT (or M2M, as it’s known in the telecoms world). It’s as if you’ve dusted off your own crystal ball and decided this fledgling technology is about to start eating into BT’s profits. Perhaps it will—but only if Starlink can overcome a formidable list of technical hurdles: higher power requirements, antenna and hardware limitations, latency issues, and the complexities of satellite handovers.

You argue that the IoT market has been “hampered by the inability to get mobile.” Fair enough—but without cellular coverage, there is no IoT to begin with. If somebody comes along with a solution, they are not taking customers from established mobile players. You then go on to make the ridiculous claim that “a satellite network provides true uninterrupted coverage”—don't they have rain and clouds where you live?

In reality, this is a fiercely competitive sector, with telecom operators, cloud providers, and specialist IoT platform vendors all jostling for position. Satellite players will find it difficult to carve out more than a niche. And even if Starlink does succeed in making its Direct-to-Cell service viable, that’s still some way off. When it does arrive, Starlink will need to work hand in hand with incumbent operators, who control the spectrum licences and operate the data centres packed with IoT infrastructure. So what you portray as a looming threat to the traditional players is, in fact, more likely to emerge as an opportunity for partnership.

@fleccy

Been nice and quite while the share price has been gradually rising over the last year or so. However, now that we have had a slight realignment we can expect all the trolls and naysayers to come out of their holes to gloat that BT are a basket case. This guy PRK1 balled out at £1.46 a couple of years ago and ever since has been pointing out to us all what a brilliant move that was!

@Delapsusresurgam

Well, it's quite true that those buyers helped push up the share price. But that's because investors think they did not become billionaires by investing in lost causes. They made their money in telecoms, so probably know what they are doing. Mittal has publicly stated he has no plans to make a takeover bid, and there is no evidence that he makes a habit of lying!

@expatwelsh

I’d like to believe the socialist vote will split neatly between Labour, Corbyn’s new vehicle (Your Party UK), the Lib Dems and the Greens in 2029. Realistically, it probably won’t play out that way — but I can hope. Either way, Labour is finished at the next election, but they can cause a lot of damage in the +3 years they have left.

My broader point was that the weekend’s speculation may have rattled the markets, and traders thrive on that. Volatility is their lifeblood — whether prices rise or fall, they pocket their cut. All they need is movement, and they’ll do whatever’s required to spark it.

@Delapsusresurgam

A takeover was never "on the table". Apart from a few trolls and oddballs on here, there is nobody who thinks this is a possibility! Actually even the trolls don't believe in it - they just want to wind people up!

None of us really know why the shares fell so sharply this morning—there’s been no news to justify it, not even the board’s announcement. The altnets, including CityFibre, are a basket case and but nothing new has emerged about them. It may be linked instead to the weekend’s political speculation: reports suggest a coup by the Labour left, with Andy Burnham being positioned to take over from Starmer. The left has long been supportive of nationalising utilities, and Corbyn’s 2019 manifesto even went so far as to propose bringing parts of BT into public ownership to deliver free broadband. That hardly seems enough on its own to explain the sell-off, but it may have been enough for brokers to stir-up the market.

If anyone seriously believed this is about a takeover, then the share price would go up instead of tanking!

@Abjectperformer

Lloyds have had a decent run lately, but I’m not particularly enthusiastic. The bank still faces potential fallout from motor finance mis-selling, which could weigh on performance. Personally, I’d lean towards HSBC—its dividend record is stronger, and I have more faith in policy stability from Beijing than from Starmer and Reeves.

As for housebuilders, I’d suggest looking at The Berkeley Group instead of Taylor Wimpey. Berkeley is far better managed, and if you compare the long-term share performance of the two over the past 25 years, the difference speaks for itself. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns, of course, but I value continuity

@Kiwitwo

Where did you get such an idiotic idea from? Numerous people have explained on her how this works. The share price is likely to drop on the Ex-Dividend date, not on when the actual dividend is paid. It may well drop by "6p+ tomorrow"...but this has nothing whatsoever to do with the dividend payment!!!

Aus3009,

There is no reason why dividend payments should negatively affect share prices. That should only happen on the ex-dividend date. More often than not share prices rise because of dividend reinvestments. However, the share price is always at the mercy of the ebbs & flows of the market, so the price can fall just like it can on any other day!

@AdderBlack

Whow, created your account only two days ago and you are already telling Aus what a cleaver boy he is, and promoting the magic bid. Seems like the site's most hated troll is back!

@fleccy

My understanding is that the current rules are a hangover from the EU and that the UK parliament are free to change whatever they like after Brexit. They are now under pressure to do just that! But it seems likely to me they will look for ways to syphen any new income streans off to the Tresuary instead of passing the gains on to the ISPs.

Aus3009

I wood never dreem of doing that!

GeordieOzz

Even Aus knows I was being facetious with those numbers. It's ridiculous to hope a share price falls when you already own them in the hope you can buy some more with the dividend.....and then the price will go up again - probability is it will carry on falling. Realistic hope is that this week's blip will soon be reversed and next week we return to our upward trend. Nobody can predict how shares will perform, but in my opinion BT are heading in the right direction. However you can ignore all mention of the magic bid - this is a troll fantacy that is not going to happen anytime soon!

@kiwitwo

Great plan, but wouldn't it be better to hope the price drops to under £1, and then rebounds to over £5, before the magic bid comes in. We could then expect the bidding to kick off at about £10. As at least another 5 bidders will join the action, sooo no need to sell up till we get to about £20.