Member Info for snige

Inflation will increase tax revenue however governments have the habit of under estimating the effects of inflation on expenditure.
Looking at the OBR figures i don't think they have factored in this level of inflation,perhaps a return to another 10 years of austerity.

With 697,000 fewer people in the workforce i can't see them achieving 4-5% growth this year unless we defy gravity and improve productivity.
I also wouldn't rely on that £200 billion squirreled away by households,which due to inflation is probably worth 10% less.
If we do reach recession it will probably be with full employment,how bizarre is that.

"can you honestly say the future looks Rosy?"
If they could crack down on fraud then the future would be rosy.When Boris says the conservatives are tough on crime he and the ONS forget to include fraud/computer misuse which account for more than 50% of UK crime.
"Total police recorded crime (excluding fraud and computer misuse) in the year ending September 2021 saw the lowest levels of crime during the first part of the year compared with the two years prior"
What a country we would be if our politicians set an example for the rest of us to follow and told the truth.
If you tell the truth Boris the story wouldn't keep changing.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingseptember2021#fraud

"Interest payments on central government debt were £8.1 billion in December 2021, a December record and £5.4 billion more than in December 2020, albeit lower than in June 2021 when interest payments were £9.0 billion."
LTI suggested higher tax take would pay above and that is true to some extent for PAYE were business has been desperate to take on gig workers for more permanent staff,however if inflation is running at 6.9% wouldn't VAT receipts at least have to match this and not 2.3% reported.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/december2021

For the vast majority who will be worse off in 2022 this 4.9% UK growth means nothing.
Growth to me is when a country is actually being more productive.
Grenfell tower and the associated cladding is a prime example which will finally be demolished this June,5 years after the disaster.

I don't worry about things because the Bank of England know what they are doing,£450 billion of QE plus £500 billion of Tory fiscal deficit and the country is strong again,back to 2019 austerity output supposedly.
"But that’s not why we do QE. We do it to keep inflation low and stable and support the economy. "
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing

LTI, "There are many that have completely ignored all restrictions from day 1"
Are you suggesting Boris is part of the 1% of the population who ignore any laws.
I would say Boris wants out,the whole thing has been orchestrated for him to leave on these minor charges of lying so he can avoid the protracted enquiry on who is responsible for the deaths of 150,000 people.
What's amazing it took this long for the general public to realise they voted for a liar but then it took 6 years before Blair was caught out.

Once the over looked speculators fueled by QE get out of the market inflation will flat line again.
"Global gas demand is expected to recover 3.2% in 2021, erasing the losses in 2020, and pushing demand 1.3% above 2019 levels"
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2021/natural-gas

It does seem removing the Brussels tier of bureaucrats has had little positive effect and its removal confirms the problem lies closer to home.
Good luck with scaling down the rest,it's a pity we had to destroy our trade and relations with close neighbours to prove a point.

"I believe laws are made to protect liberties and rights "
Sam,i don't think your generation has been around long enough if you believe that.
For the majority,laws are created to restrict our liberties,to keep us in our place and maintain their establishment .
Sometimes minorities are given small freedoms to create an illusion,nothing more.

The trouble with Boris you never get any sense out of him.
On Wednesday he said it twice,he had created 500,000 more jobs since the pandemic but his own ONS says we have lost 567,000.
"and more jobs today – 500,000 more jobs today – than there were when the pandemic began.”
Markets haven't fallen so it would seem they are happy for a change.

UK government was still advising people after 4 months of high infection rates on the 21st Oct 2021 that " It is important that you return for your second injection of COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca. If you miss a scheduled injection, you may not be fully protected against COVID-19."
No-one was ever fully protected and that's probably why with all the infections our GDP is still 1.5% behind pre pandemic levels and that of EU and US.
Boris's vaccine race,whatever happened to the AZ vaccine?

I would take the South African figures with a pinch of salt if the true figures on deaths last year were 250,000.
With an average age of 27 and ours 41 i would think they are running out of vulnerable's although they do have the worlds highest number of HIV.

Why don't they have a more realistic stress test say with PPI scam,high inflation or a government heavily over spent wishing to lay its hands on some easy money.

"Market's dont like uncertainty"
So can i offer some certainty,UK exports have fallen from £171 billion in the 3 months ending Feb 2020 to £151 billion for the current 3 months October 2021.
Something has seriously gone wrong with our exports when compared to a similar country like Germany were exports are running 4% above pre pandemic levels.

"The last English Housing Survey estimated that 772,000 households had a second home in 2018/19. Of those, 495,000 were in the UK, an increase of 77% in the past 10 years.However, that is just part of a larger trend towards multiple property ownership. In 2019, the Resolution Foundation estimated that 5.5 million adults in Britain – 11.2% of the population – own more than one property once buy to let is included as well."
It's a decision for the wealthy to make,you either give up your second homes or we build a lot more homes.
Or we could just carry on with the current market and have millions of youngster with broken dreams of ever owning a home-very conservative.

Hardup,
I'm glad the vaccine gives you peace of mind,like an insurance policy before you have to make a claim.
One thing for sure science doesn't always get it right.The Warwick university model which the government is working to said it would peak in late August and be over by end of September,has some one accidentally fed in over optimistic data on the vaccine or is it omicron in the nick of time.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975911/S1184_SPI-M_University_of_Warwick_Road_Map_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity.pdf

Latest on BBC says 2 doses isn't good enough but the booster will give you 75% protection.
The way i look at it is, you take the car to the garage to get the brakes fixed but the mechanic mentions they will only work 75% of the time in an emergency stop and he doesn't know when they will fail.
Should i still use the car?

With UK government bringing forward boosters to 3 months after 2nd dose they have admitted to the vaccines effectiveness.
Big pharma will be laughing all the way to the bank with this one,any chance of a partial refund?

US inflation at 6.2% and the only talk was of tapering next month,why would UK interest rates go up?
The money lenders are pushing hard for greater rewards which will be paid for by the British taxpayer.