"The IEA said oil demand could drop by 9%, returning oil consumption to 2012 levels" If accurate the 10% reduction in supply would cover it. In a world of easing lock down that metal box on 4 rubber wheels becomes a relatively safe haven. I can see the advantages of buying click/collect, drive through eateries,banking,cinema etc,etc and will make up for some of the reduced airmiles. Still don't like it.
"This will be like PPI in that there will be further impairments to come over the next few years. People will borrow less new money and try and save more." I would think the impairments are coming a bit sooner than that,plus even when business is offered interest free loans for 1 year under business interruption the weekly rate has fallen to £1.3bn,total now stands at £4.1bn 29th April.
Oxo. Boris said on the 12th March ‘It’s going to spread further and I must level with you, the British public. More families, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.’ He knew at that point the severity of the decease and the Queen moved to Windsor however no lock down was ordered and she returned to London on the 16th.Finally she left for Windsor on the 19th and the lock down commenced on Monday 23rd. The rest of Europe inc Ireland was in lock down before the 15th. I think any leader and definitely Theresa May or Corbyn would have reacted 1 week earlier and saved the London surge.
Can't see the rush to get into banking as it will be one of the last industries to know the full cost of this pandemic and what level of dividend it can afford. Oil market supply side will balance and demand will rise fast after lock down removed - that's from a person who believes in renewables.
RE: A new 100% loan scheme to be announced for smaller business TODAY27 Apr 2020 22:13
Gateboy, I thought we were talking about the global financial crisis which effected all countries - what would you have done to save the UK banking system? Germany also had a record deficit of £97bn and according to UK government figures for Jan 2020 borrowing stood at £44.8bn,£5.8bn ahead of previous year. "Borrowing in the current financial year-to-date (April 2019 to January 2020) was £44.8 billion, £5.8 billion more than in the same period the previous year." https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-deficit-idUKTRE62U3LW20100331
RE: A new 100% loan scheme to be announced for smaller business TODAY27 Apr 2020 20:52
Gateboy, "When the Tories took over in 2010, they were left a horrific mess by your beloved Labour Party. Austerity to balance the budget was necessary." The wealthy got the tax breaks and the less well off paid the highest taxes ever and all that hard work,sacrifice for what. I don't see us as better off now than 10 years ago.
If the economy shrinks house prices will fall and the house builders are adjusting for this. In 2008 prices fell by 16% even though interest rates fell from 5.75% in July 2007 to 0.5% in March 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7812108.stm
Sector specific i agree but hospitality does account for 11% of the economy. Those low paid workers many of whom are EU nationals won't be renting and many will probably return to their nation of origin-empty property does become a Lloyds problem. Reference OAP's, can you see them spending and can you see public sector workers spending more to make up the shortfall?
Bank of England stress test failed to account for having the longest bank holiday in history and will report in early May. I bet it crosses most peoples mind every day - can we get away with it? In a normal year we have 8 bank holidays at employers expense but possibly by end of May 69 days (full on) in a row at government expense. With little chance of further fiscal stimulus and a population more likely to save for a second spike in this pandemic,banks will be writing off more than PPI in a much shorter period.
The latest fake news from government is A & E admissions have halved because people are scared to attend hospital. Although there is some truth in this statement the main reason people are not attending hospital is there is no requirement to obtain a sick note from a doctor for SSP or an absence from school. 130m working days are lost each year to sickness in the UK and a large proportion are referred to hospital by GP's. Governments like to get their own way - standby for more pressure on banks to release loans.
when talk here was about following a Singapore style economy, well Corona has exposed the truth. "The crisis has laid bare the dizzyingly unequal conditions endured by Singapore’s army of 1 million imported, low-wage laborers who make up a largely invisible underclass in this wealthy nation of 5.6 million". UK would need approx. 11-12m to make it work for us.
So far £2.8bn is a complete failure for the government and a gain for the banks. The £330bn was probably plucked out the sky to look politically good and were probably looking for half that figure. If they can't get the mugs of viable business to borrow more from the banks then they'll have to actually have to borrow more themselves and pump it in. A 100% guarantee would help but why not also pay them via negative interest for the first year.