Member Info for snige

Very true Mot,we are short of people but does that mean the economy is healthy or the people unhealthy.

If you believe the employment figures they are good,but how many times have we seen companies or countries"cook the books" in times of trouble.
Physical trade figures are the most difficult to twist,unless the rest of the world is also at it.
Sterling up 1.345.

"Three months to February 2020 Trade in goods Decreased £0.8 billion (0.8%) to £97.0 billion"
"Total trade in goods: three months to August 2021 Value (£bn) 80.3"
These are total UK exports for the World not just EU.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/august2021#total-trade-three-monthly-and-annual-movements
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/february2020

LTI, i chose Germany as its industries are similar to ours,motor vehicles,mechanical generators,pharma and was hoping you could explain why their exports have recovered and ours haven't.
Considering we have been through the same pandemic and these industries are not people facing i thought you may have an answer.If you could find a reason it would go some way in explaining why the ftse has risen 15% since the referendum and the CAC/DAX above 60%

German trade figures out today confirm their exports are only .3% down on pre-pandemic Feb 2020 levels while our exports still down 17%.
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2021/11/PE21_510_51.html
Another good result from brexit, the elimination of the idea Europe is holding us back.

TFE "He has learnt a lesson this week"
I am sick to death of this excuse being used by the well paid elite.
You learn your profession on the journey up,not at the top.
If you hire a professional builder to build a house i don't expect him to tell me the roof doesn't fit,either go or get the job(brexit) DONE.

LTI, rubbish.
Current high inflation,low interest rate is what the government wanted,if they want to help the consumer they would have dropped VAT on energy.
Low interest rates will keep their debt costs down and the VAT rolling in.
The Bank of England is not independent.

"Who knows as models / projections can be way off!"
Bank of England assumed we would all be spending that £200 billion yet consumers are still net saving £9.4 bn in September.
A full rise of rates to .5% would prove B of E fully independent (supposedly) and would nicely look in conflict with Sunak who said in the Autumn budget "Just a one percentage point increase in inflation and interest rates would cost us around £23bn."
Telegraph report suggested each 1% rise equates to £40bn or 4 times the 1.25% NI levy.

Inflated figures devalued by inflation and very few people better off next year with inflation averaging at 4% and that's without any interest rate hikes.

"Director banned for 9 years and three further directors receive extended bankruptcy restrictions for misusing COVID-19 financial relief schemes"
Calling it misuse isn't cracking down when in reality it's stealing.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/insolvency-service-cracks-down-on-bounce-back-loan-abusers

Sunak say's "his plan is working",what a dick.
A positive test will results in 10 days isolation.On average it's been running at 35,000 a day for the last 120 days and assume half are of working age then so far 21 million days lost-In a normal year we lose 32 million days.
On top of this we have an addition 5.7 million on NHS waiting list and say only 40% of working age,you do the maths.
No wonder vacancies are running hot and we have supply chain issues,we have flattened the sombrero but the net result of excess deaths/economic cost will be spread over a longer timespan with similar numbers to the last peak.
https://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/dayslost.htm

How they arrive at this figure of .8% below pre pandemic when Aug GDP rose by .4% seems a mystery to me,after they reported on the 10th Sept that "Gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in July 2021, and remains 2.1% below its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic level (February 2020)" and the BOE reported on the 23rd Sept that "Bank staff have revised down their expectations for the level of UK GDP in 2021 Q3 by around 1% since the August Report, leaving the expected level of Q3 GDP around 2½% below its pre-Covid".
Is it Falky fantasy economics.

"Financial markets face a sharp downturn if investors rethink the prospects of economic recovery from COVID-19 amid supply problems, rising prices and a spending squeeze, the Bank of England has warned"
Delayed August GDP figure out this Wednesday after above release on Friday 8th of October.
https://news.sky.com/story/economic-jitters-threaten-sharp-market-downturn-warns-bank-of-england-12429224

SUFC,
Try thinking about the loans which are not guaranteed.It's very likely if a guaranteed loan is written off then the business as a whole isn't a going concern.
"The Bank of England estimates the total SME debt to be £167 billion, with the big banks accounting for 65% of this lending" that's just SME's alone.
I don't think its as bad as it looks but the government just put a figure to it today.
Just trying to suss out the 2 day fall,has LBG any exposure to Evergrande via corporate bonds?

They also added in
"Public sector net borrowing (PSNB ex) was estimated to have been £325.1 billion in the financial year ending March 2021, an increase of £27.1 billion compared with our previous estimate; largely as a result of recording, for the first time, expected expenditure of £20.9 billion on calls under the government loan guarantee schemes".
Government hasn't any confidence it will get our money back so why should Lloyds.

Livestock,
i can't see why you can say "Some of the latest economical data suggested an economy running increasingly hot" when the GDP figure for August is still running at minus 2.1% below the Feb 2020 level,some 18 months previous.
Gove and Johnson promised us cheap gas if we voted for brexit over 5 years ago and the reverse has happened,i'm still waiting for cheap oranges!
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1218703/boris-promises-cheaper-household-gas-bills-if-brits-back-brexit/

1 in 20 currently pay £5.6 billion inheritance tax.
What if we introduced along the lines of Gordon Browns death tax and all pay 10% up to the £325k threshold then no one would have to accumulate savings for late life care.
The dead would ultimately care for those soon to die and those reaching retirement would have one less thing to worry about.
Tory press trashed the idea back in 2010.

GS reckon it's going to get messy,they feel we'll have a lot of slack on the labour front with 1.6 million joining the unemployment pool but i think furlough has been hiding a lot of long term sickness from the 7.4 million not referred.
The young have returned to work however the older age groups have stubbornly stayed on furlough.As with any group some skivers amongst,but believe labour shortage will not fix itself.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/goldman-sees-a-messier-u-k-furlough-end-delaying-boe-rate-hike-1.1650040
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hmrc-coronavirus-covid-19-statistics

Unexplained peak of deaths during a summer.
Actually it's been 8 weeks now with no EXPLAINATION.

TFE,you're an idiot if you trust this government.
We've had excess deaths now for the last 6 weeks,400 to 600 unexplained after taking into account covid and that's after a lot of dead wood has been removed and no significant heat wave.
A lot of people dying at home.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/27august2021