Member Info for snige

Extends motor finance support till the end of October 2020 -then we fall off a cliff.
In the meantime the Government wants you to spend the money you've saved on that Lloyds motor finance deal on expensive pub booze but warns it's best to make some payment on the loan.
Will the loan ever get paid?

"Ending weeks of speculation, Chancellor Rishi Sunak will hold an emergency Budget in all but name on Wednesday 8 July 2020 to usher in new support measures to help the economy move out of the coronavirus lockdown and to get the country working again."
Might have a positive effect on Lloyds but in the shorter term if he's not prepared to throw money at consumption then Lloyds will fall away with the job losses and company failures.
We could still carry on with talking the economy up.

China is offering all 66 million UK passport holders a new life in CHINA if you've had enough of Boris - would help the aviation industry.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/china-corresponding-measures-uk-hong-kong-citizenship_uk_5efd7d48c5b6acab284b4983

Barring the Spanish armada attacking the Isle of Wight this country needs an economic package along the lines of Germany's.
VAT reduced to 16%,€300 for every child and a " stimulus package also including a comprehensive set of measures to invest in Germany’s future. These measures – totalling €50 billion – aim to accelerate the country’s modernisation and to ensure that Germany emerges from the crisis with renewed strength."
Total package of €130bn (mainly grants)which is in addition to EU package of €750bn (€500bn grants)
Furlough in the long term is less generous than German unemployment benefit 60/67% of net wage up to €6500 a month.
https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Content/EN/Standardartikel/Topics/Public-Finances/Articles/2020-06-04-fiscal-package.html

No one wants the Brits any longer not even Bournemouth or the Cornish even though they still want your money.That's why i'm sure 3 million Chinese won't turn up.
What If we had made that offer in 1997 we would have been swamped out, how things change within just 25yrs.

"The Department of Health said 226,398 had been carried out in the past day. As of this morning, 9,662,051 tests have been carried out but the reporting on the number of people has been paused to “ensure consistent reporting”.
Always strange when you ask people "do you know of anyone who has had the test" and they answer no.

"Listen to the BOE they're not worried"
TFE,if you had a solid job at the BOE would you be worried, far too many high paid people telling the less well off to spend their money.
They have stimulated the markets but not the economy, the wealthy will spend the extra in created markets like another piece of art.If you're lower down the food chain why not restore an old vehicle that's a good investment but neither really do anything for the future of this country although the car is more fun.

Fix, fix, fix.
I have low expectation, but If they can fix the potholes at the end of my lane within the next decade with the £2bn promised last year, i'll be chuffed.

"Our PM seemed good for about a week"
Which week was that Trifle?

Falkland, "My biggest investment is in the *North Basin* in the Falklands."
Is you real name "Nice but dim Tim"

I'll tell you why this country is stuffed and it's not even political- useless management.
Our local recycling centre now employ's a three person shift, manning a holding system 13hrs a day,7 days a week so you can pick up a free ticket to proceed the last mile to the tip.
And on the other hand we can't open up a public toilet requiring an one hour daily clean.

Lloyds has been far too optimistic.
One thing for sure during bad times you find out who your friends are and too many people have been let down during this pandemic whether it be the small investor not getting a divi, not being covered by your insurance policy or not getting your money back from the travel industry.
On top of this we have large chunks of the population who are deemed or feel vulnerable or just want to consume less.
Consumers require trust to spend and this going to take a lot longer than Lloyds predictions to heal.

"The Fed had announced the results of its annual stress tests late on Thursday and had ordered banks not to buy back stock in the third quarter and capped their dividend payouts, aiming to ensure that they strong enough to absorb up to $700 billion in loan losses as a result of the pandemic."
U.S economy 8 times the size of UK so they are working on $87.5bn of impairment .

What is Lloyds exposure to Intu as it could be a big one.
Supposedly the assets are valued at £6.6bn but this was after a property revaluation of minus £2.5bn in 2019.
If consumption habits turn away from buying and sending to landfill then these excess shopping centre's could be worth a lot less than the current outstanding debt of £4.5bn.
Nothing wrong with consumption if it's not wasted.

"Brits holding 11% more cash in accounts despite income hit"
11% increase in cash balances is not going to save the economy when you think this is after people spent 32% less on non essentials and 18% of mortgage holders are on the 2nd month of a mortgage holiday.

When Sunak suggested the consumer should spend our way out of this problem he should have added - only if you have the means without going into additional debt.
Household borrowing got us into this mess, if consumers had saved more furlough and self employed grants would have been considerably less of an issue.
A very dangerous policy to get the many into further debt.

This site is bouncing all over the place but what I tried to say is,
The Bank of England use various methods to measure economic activity,I wonder if they study electricity demand.
With all retail now open and hospitality partially (take aways etc) electricity demand for last week was running at 26.3GW
while the same week last year 28.7GW.
OK not a massive fall on the face of it however when you factor in base use (the background constant - 3AM) this time of
year is approx. 20GW then the daytime fall is close to 25%.

The B of E monitor the

If the net result was improved exports, tourism, balance of payments the Pound would soar, who said the FX markets are forward looking.
Just another thought.

Ignore that bit about a EU trade agreement with the US - that was the cats idea, lol.