Member Info for snige

House prices shouldn't effect the volume of houses bought and sold except for first timer's and those leaving the market.
If you already own, the price becomes irrelevant whether you gain or lose on one house or the other.
First time buyers are 29% down on 2019 so the average house price will be higher.Will be interesting to see if their numbers catch up and whether the big house builders only returned to work to tidy up after the 23rd March and complete the phase.

TFE, i agree with " why prolong the inevitable" but to do that you should have a planned alternative and that isn't happening.
With no alternative Lloyds will be picking up the pieces - more impairments.

Asp "Projections by the NHS Confederation show that the NHS waiting list is expected to rise from about 4.2 million currently to about 10 million by Christmas."
That must be about everyone in the UK who needs medical treatment is on a waiting list and you say the "Banks have been protecting the economy same way the NHS did for infections" - God help us.

RBS if worth a lot more in a run down state than the current value of the government £8.6bn share holding.
If they play their cards right instead of selling it in 2024 for supposedly £45bn they should be able to double that by bleeding it dry.

Did mention a while ago Britain is the heaviest invested country abroad with 5.5 times our GDP, of which a third invested in Europe which had some protection with political veto.
Another third invested in America is at the whim of their politicians and it will be interesting to see whether they will try to buck the market and stop this working from home.
Whatever happens for a global Britain it's outside our control.

Wids, if this virus has triggered a long term change from commuting to a city centre office then yes, we will have a fundamental revaluation of this property type.
Not that it will disappear just redundant till they can find a use for it.
Our small town has 3 empty banks which have been that way for at least 3 years.

Well if they can guarantee a computer system which will never breakdown for the millions of people who deal with a single bank then you'll always need an alternative.

I'm happy with the piece of paper.
If we didn't have it and the banking system decided to blacklist,you'd be stuffed.

Not sure the people would like the ultimate privatisation but it would save all that nonsense of promising to pay the bearer and all that.

Rosewall,the half a person example is the additional risk nothing more.
If you can keep them alive for 28 days they don't die of Covid, according to the government.

I think they set the 20 cases per 100k too low.
Grant Shapps said "He told BBC Breakfast there were about 160,000 British holidaymakers currently in France, and said "the last thing we want do is to have people returning and bringing the infection with them".
Doing a bit of maths UK case rate 17.3 per 100,000, France rate 34 so additional cases of 16.7 per 100,000 which on the above number of UK visitors equals 27 of which with current mortality rates of approx 20 deaths per 1000 cases or 0.02 = .54 of a person.
It does make you think when no other country reacted why they did it for half a person.

"According to the government's official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility,
It has predicted falls of anything between 2% this year, to 22% by the later half of next year.
Its central forecast is an 11% fall by the end of 2021 and flatlining thereafter."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53755590

Good or bad news for first-time buyers?

The government should have come clean about all the jobs created in the last decade.
They were a quick fix from the previous recession, most low paid,unproductive and fragile.
One ray of hope which someone mentioned yesterday is the amount of home improvement work being carried on,understandable when you think people have been locked in a house for 3 months.Perhaps if the economic model was switched more towards,heat pumps,solar panels,battery storage we might end up with more useful,better paid jobs and more comfortable houses which must be more desirable than a short term fix, filling yer face.

In the last recession of minus 2.7%GDP we dropped interest rates by 5%, this time it's been 0.65% on an estimated 10% fall.
Would love to know what the equivalent of a 1% drop is worth in fiscal stimulus.
Having said that if people aren't confident about the future you can't force them to borrow.

This is no ordinary recession.
The government ordered the people to stay at home and for certain business to close and with a few exceptions (Cummings etc) the people followed orders.
No way can you punish the unemployed,economically inactive,zero hour,freelance,self employed for following orders - the government has to take full responsibility,borrow enough or transfer some of the wealth.

Fleccy, the unemployment figures have been corrupted,no one really knows how many but 4% does seem overly optimistic.
The same can be said for the dine out to help out scheme.The Government has set aside £500m however in the first week £50m has been claimed on 10.5m meals and the scheme only has 3 more weeks to run.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53731002

The UK have around £4 trillion of household and non financial company debt,£1 trillion is tied up in mortgages and i see this as lower risk but this still leaves £3 trillion and the BOE model is predicting around £60 billion or 2% will go bad.
I hope they've got their figures correct.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financial-policy-summary-and-record/2020/august-2020

2227,the more they hide the true figures on unemployment the higher the risk banks face accidentally breaching the BOE stress tests.
"The Committee estimates that, to generate such losses, the cumulative loss of economic output resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic would need to be around twice as big as in the MPC’s central projection and the unemployment rate would need to rise very sharply, to around 15%."
Ignoring reality at your peril.

Darth, According to the Office of national fairy tales we shouldn't refer to these 730,000 people as unemployed.They should instead be addressed as economically inactive, a bit like half of the private investors in Lloyds.
Does sound better.
Conservatives also off loaded 238,000 self employed and put another 156,000 on zero hours - to level up the economy.

Darth, the art to a good post is to get it deleted by the peelers for telling the painful truth.
I would have thought by now after 6 months of taking back control, most would have realised it's not the EU dishing out the punishment,it's Boris.
That should bring it on.