Member Info for Smoothbrain

@Minecheck

Maybe, but you are forgetting the difference between Russia as a country and Putin as a person. Putin as a person does not believe in the rule of law, and believes himself entitled to a cut of everything. It's the reason why corruption is rife in his associated nations and why Russia despite being very wealthy has a population who don't make a lot and have a lowish life expectancy despite being well educated.

Russia as interests differs from the rest of the world as they are so large and with so much natural resource that they do not need anything from food, fuel and materials to rare metals. Their real need is income, man power and technology which they do not possess domestically. It's the reason why Russia has an extensive web of shell companies to procure tech and microchips from all over the world, as their internal manufacturing on this front remains unsatisfactory. There was a white paper a few years ago about how they debuted their own microprocessor that failed to meet all necessary expectations for banking.

However these interests are very different from Putins own interests of power. See how he treated Georgia when they developed a functioning government. Similar with Armenia, and failed to back them despite their strategic military agreement because he opposed their democratic government. Again similar to Ukraine. Unilaterally breaking all previous agreements because he didn't like the current situation.

Functioning alliances with these countries that brokers more open trade with the West would be a good strategic direction for Russia, but given differences of ideology those bridges are broken, and he seeks Russian business elsewhere whilst carrying out a protracted war.

Anything that looks to improve their countries differs from Putins objectives to completely control them, and if they differ he will crush them to teach them. He is a brilliant strategist but also a power hungry mafia type personality. He can only have himself at the top of the table, so no one is allied with the current Russia - Putin only has people under him.

If Putin goes, there can be a change of ethos too.

To say that Russia is Russia is inaccurate too. Leaders define their nations and can bring about change and influence. A change in leadership with ending the war would greatly improve relations with everyone.

I agree with your statement that this is a proxy war destroying the country, but they don't want Russia to conquer them and Putin's only terms is that Ukraine surrenders, so the impasse remains

And real shareholder value would be unlocked by Ukraine joining the EU, and supplying all of Europes iron needs without trade barriers. We would literally be laughing.

@Pokerchips

And no one believes that in the face of the last 8 years of a concerted Russian campaign and documented extensive interference on part of Trump. He is realising his interview is too obvious to anyone with critical faculties

I worry that somone would hijack a truck of high quality ore and screw us all over!

It's hopeful and I like their feature set. However pricing is not far off adobe cloud subscription which is the gold standard. How are BIRD going to distinguish themselves in this arena if not by pricing?

Anyone see this morning's news? Likely sanctions and fines for Lloyds if this comes to be confirmed. Standard Chartered was fined 1 billion so not small money either.

I haven't sold. Holding long term.

Not sure I share the outlook of disappointing. All of it seems good. Stable, consistent and to the upper end of their own guidance. For forecasts to improve beyond the price of gold they need to expand the operation.

This is also a odd point. Why is Russia opposed to NATO? The real opposition to NATO was an ideological one from the cold war - communism vs capitalism, which died with the Soviet Union. Since the fall of the USSR until 10 years ago, Russia was a large trading partner to the whole world where military and political barriers no longer mattered. In fact, early on Putin had an interest in joining NATO:

"The account chimes with what Putin told the late David Frost in a BBC interview shortly before he was first inaugurated as Russian president more than 21 years ago. Putin told Frost he would not rule out joining Nato “if and when Russia’s views are taken into account as those of an equal partner”.

He told Frost it was hard for him to visualise Nato as an enemy. “Russia is part of the European culture. And I cannot imagine my own country in isolation from Europe and what we often call the civilised world.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule

Putin mentioned NATO to discourage other countries from interfering in the Ukraine situation he has created, but that NATO is opposed to Russia is a stance created by Putin himself to propogate a cold war narrative and excuse his extensive interference in Ukraine, rather than what was a true reflection of the state of the world prior to his invasion.

The failure of the Russian government to treat its allies as allies, and drive them all away from the Russian sphere of influence is on Putin alone, not anyone else. Any country with a functioning democracy has long since become wise to the lies of the Putin regime, and the only remaining allies are those with similarly autocratic regimes.

The real long term value is whether they can use the current windfall to pivot into another successful mining operation going forwards. Either stage 4 and 5 successful exploratory drilling and expanding into it, or beginning mining operations at their new chunk of land with material being mined and refined within the next 2 years is key to MTL being a significant success.

Both of these would also require a significant work force increase as well as upskilling etc, so aggressive reinvestment in these areas if either of the above are viable directions of travel is what we want to see if MTL is to really balloon in size and value.

I have faith, but I can see why the market is tentative. Broadly speaking, metals are all over the place at the moment and whilst gold is at an all time high, consumer strength is low and a lot of this is driven by China (and partly government buying gold) and India gold demand, which threatens how long term this gold price rally will last. Seriously, have you looked at the price of Gold jewellery recently? Hard to see how any of that is making its way into ordinary hands.

When the copper potential was announced, that really gave me hope that MTL is going further in a sustainable way.

I'm guessing this is the same unloved city citing this?

I think you need to elaborate more on that statement

@silverspoons

Maybe, but if anything, Russia is behaving as the UK did in your example rather than the other way around.

@JohnNth

You mean Crimea being passed into Ukranian control whilst part of the Soviet Union in 1954 as A GIFT after being 300 years unified. After the Soviet Union collapsed, geographical boundaries were agreed by all of them - so therefore 'what is done is done' with regards to borders.

Your argument essentially is Russia owns everything always, whether it says it does or doesn't so can do what it wants - which is the logic of a 2 year old.

I think the person that needs to learn something about the world is you.

@JohnNth

Why would any self respecting leader grant autonomy or devolution to an area of their country that has been invaded and annexed? It makes sense to entirely reject the culture of an invading nation that does not respect your sovereignty.

After Russia invaded and annexed parts of the country, makes sense they would seek strong allies such as NATO to deter Russian forces from going further. When they had no such backing is when Russia could invade easily such as in 2014 and again in 2022.

Let's not forget Russia invaded after Ukranians rose up to oust pro-Russian president Yanukovych, who spent a lot of his term saddling Ukraine with poor value deals that put more of the country's infrastructure and debt in control of Russian entities with no gain to the Ukranian population, as well as eroding democratic principles and freedoms of the nation. Cronyism and corruption basically.

You say Poroschenko was smarter, but he started the process of Ukraine entering the EU, so clearly of a similar mindset to Zelensky and both elected with majority.

The saddest thing here is that Ukraine and Russia have such a shared history that Ukraine moving more towards the west didn't have to be a negative for Russia. Ukraine could have been the bridge between them, but Putin would not allow it.

@silverspoons

Agreed, that seems most likely. However previous comments blaming Zelensky for an invasion that started before he was even elected and problems significantly pre-dating him is absurd, and painting Ukraine as the enemy when it is defending its sovereign borders as well as Russia breaching the Budapest memorandum. Russia invaded Ukraine and made a straight shot for Kiev at the start; their only aim was to overthrow the government and capture the nation. There isn't peace to is brokered here as you said.

As I see it, if Putin had simply been less greedy and corrupt, this situation would never have occurred and Russia would have remained on the good trading terms it had 10+ years ago and been rolling in gas and resource money. Putin leading the Russian government has undermined its relationship with its allies (see how Russia treated Armenia & Georgia for example), it's unsurprising that Ukraine along with other governments no longer wish for Russia's corrupting influence to undermine their nations. Furthermore, as the invading force, any statement of seeking peace eminating from them is a joke to begin with. Why would Ukraine seek peace on any terms presented by the aggressor if it has a choice?

Meanwhile Europe needs Ukraine, and more so when Russia is no longer a friendly trading partner so unlikely they will let it run out of war funds.

@Minecheck

Your statement is backwards to me. Zelensky is representing his nation who has been invaded, and is defending. For conflict to stop, it takes for the aggressor, Russia to cease. Ukraine is not going to cease fighting invadors, no sane person would. Therefore there is more chance of cessation if Putin is replaced rather than Zelensky.

If Ukraine achieves entry into the EU, then Russia will have little choice but to retreat or escalate, neither of which it wishes to do.

Realistically, I see neither giving ground. The likeliest outcome is that they agree new boundaries based on current occupation boundaries where Russia has been pushed back. If so, better for Ferrexpo as new boundaries with more of Ukraine's territory in its control again means easier export of material and entry into the EU as one of the world's largest iron ore pellet producer is an essential resource for Europe as globalisation falters and geopolitical lines significantly interfering with operations again.

The potential expansion into copper is a huge bonus. Copper is highly sought, and ever increasingly as the one of the core base materials for most green infrastructure transition. More income streams, better sustainability of mines and company as it continues to expand. I had strong expectations based on the original project alone, so this is the expansion potential I was hoping for. If metal prices maintain, we should be in for a good run.

Flew out of bed this morning to buy more shares on the news. This is excellent going forwards. Expansion and lasting company value is what will turn this company into something soon Centamin sized.

Fingers crossed. I hope MTL has some news as well as financial results. Getting any real update about this company is difficult, even trawling websites in the philippines

Website notes 30% of free cash flow to be dividend. Last was 2022. Agreed doing it in war time is perhaps bad taste, interim board paper reports they opted against interim dividend in 2023.

Out of curiousity, how much are people holding? Seems like a great company now old boss has disappeared if it wasn't for the war...

Thanks!