RE: USA16 Feb 2024 16:37
@Minecheck
You make good points and I agree, the influence and history of Russia is absolutely not to be underestimated, and its geography along with its wealth of resource eternally cements its vast influence more than almost any other nation can appreciate. However Russia's changing influence has been also Putin's doing.
Wagner group has been disbanded and were responsible for many foreign skirmish powers particularly in Africa. The death of Navalny is a warning to what happens when you try to even stand against Putin. To pretend that Putin is loved by all is also to be blind to the fact that no other legitimate choices exist, because only injury and death await a differing voice.
This alone is the no.1 reason why NATO is so attractive - because NATO will support its allies. The old Russia would have, the current Russia would not. This alone erodes Russia's influence because they cannot be trusted, and Putin cannot trust, because his approach leaves enemies everywhere. It is a race to the bottom with current leadership.
Furthermore Russia is not defeated, but it has eroded from the inside. That is not easy to heal.
Rerouting trade is an excellent tactic, but India and China are not buying their resources at market rates and will gradually be felt as the bottom line reduces. Medical and broader technologies will put Russia entirely dependent on China, which can easily supply its needs, but this ultimately reduces Russia's influence to being secondary to China's.
The West is more isolated for reasons beyond Russia I agree, not to mention other highly divisive regional conflicts. However Russia is more isolated too. The two are not mutually exclusive. With 1/3 of its boundary shut and to one of the largest markets is undoubtedly damaging
As for subservience to the US, the EU is a strong counter to the USA's influence in this domain. Only UK post Brexit is going to feel this influence more acutely due to such a self destructive political decision.
@Pokerchips
The USA gains significantly from NATO outside of military spending, including political and trade relations, as well as strategic information across the globe that it uses. It has military bases in foreign nations. Which nation has a base in the USA? The USA has to pay for this use of another country's territory. Trump's argument to look at strategy on simple numeric terms is short-sighted but easy to present, which is his entire electoral approach - "build a wall", "drain a swamp", "make them pay". It feeds his electorate, but doesn't make sound politics.
Trump threatening to disband NATO is Putin's voice through and through, because anyone that understands world politics would appreciate just how much power, trade and influence would be sacrificed. I would be surprised Republican donors support this, those same donors are the ones who's financial interests exist in these areas i.e. oil, weapons etc.
And if such rhetoric makes the EU develop more home grown solutio