Member Info for Smellyben

Fine here is one from a week ago from the foremost foreign and defence policy think tank in the UK (and arguably the world)

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/unrest-threatens-ethiopia-s-transition-under-abiy-ahmed#

There will be another state of emergency in my opinion - Covid will probably be used as a cover and the unrest will spill over. the key issues are in the province where the mine is and you’d be mad if you didn’t think the proposed “biggest exporter in the country” wouldn’t be seen as a focal point for power in the country. Add to that Egypt threatening war ( potentially) why would anyone risk 200 million when senior people on the ground wouldn’t commit 9 million - all the while Covid continues - Australia second city shut down ( not sure where the Aussie miners Harry is using hail from but not a good sign for the key suppliers either ) -

I am well aware of the history having suffered through it. The leaders of banks, insurance companies and armed forces couldn’t raise 9mill to fund the initial equity tranche - that was before Covid, the Egyptian dam and g the civil unrest. Now you are trying to convince newbies they will raise 200m plus in 8 weeks you are trying to suck new investors in so you can sell out Before the upcoming dilution - looks like you have delayed too long Boys https://uk.news.yahoo.com/mass-arrest-dissidents-threatens-derail-154404076.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9yLnNlYXJjaC55YWhvby5jb20vX3lsdD1Bd3JQNGxGTHh5WmZiRVFBMkJkMGc4MVE7X3lsdT1YM29ETVRCeVptVnhNM04wQkdOdmJHOERhWEl5QkhCdmN3TXhCSFowYVdRREJITmxZd056WXctLS9SVj0yL1JFPTE1OTY0MDU3MDcvUk89MTAvUlU9aHR0cHMlM2ElMmYlMmZ1ay5uZXdzLnlhaG9vLmNvbSUyZm1hc3MtYXJyZXN0LWRpc3NpZGVudHMtdGhyZWF0ZW5zLWRlcmFpbC0xNTQ0MDQwNzYuaHRtbC9SSz0yL1JTPVA5ZVNjTWtEelA0QUJwS2I0ak1UQjRwUU5kSS0&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFkm5gBqiaX5GSNBlDF5as6ArBY9ZGMxnJIHW_2HRGoZNb41anljkpTBF5oTV2xdh3Gf7eY7a3zVCbP09RM5GOkZ7uAS3KDWzeW-ULYVUHYLpoAK3XvVuI2HiL2B1H9GiQeAm7TR8uHgZBXgSIoFfX9IelqHfvPxap9fy3b9QWh4

Sounds like you’ve had one too many beers in the sun mate. If I wanted to buy and thought this would rise I would You know buy it - if it was 1.7 or 1.4 wouldn’t make much difference if it was to ten bag as some of you people believe. Fact is the market knows financing Of 200m in this environment (Covid, potential war, civil unrest, liquidity crisis) is not gonna happen in 2 months - they couldn’t get 9 mill FFS. - if this is the highest it goes with gold prices at record levels just imagine what happens when dilution and gold falls - you have been warned and I have no sympathy for you guys. LTHs I feel sorry for but they won’t sell as they have already lost 90% so not much difference.

sure why not , payday today! have a good weekend all

maybe but I doubt they could afford it if there are 10 billion share then?

Agreed !!

exactly positive - thats why the share price is down- despite your persistent ramping 2.5p, 3p, 6p or whatever your latest failed prediction is ! The thing is apart from a few new small PIs we have seen all this before many many times - please refer to the flurry of RNS at this time last year when Oct 19 this was definitely gonna happen, then by year end , then JAn etc etc - Harry is signally with the dropping of SIGNIFICANTLY and the highlighting the complexity of the moving pieces this will take time to sort and at a far lower price than most here are discussing - HE SAID IT in the interview!!!! In my opinion there will be another dilution before any of this is sorted as they must be running on fumes now cashwise - assuming you can get all the competing interests to agree which is by no means a given hence his highlighting the risk ad the fact as an exploration company they rely on regular funding from shareholders to exist - I mean some people literally talking crazy talk with the ramping they are doing here

he said that he is looking to raise finance with the specialists at $1400 just to introduce a dose of realism into the conversation and I believe was the only new info available in the call

he also said that if you want safety buy a bond, that this is risky and if you cant accept that you shouldnt be invested.

he also said he would like to be in a position to name a preferred financier at the end of next month but it is complicated with various moving parts and wouldnt guarantee it (basically all the stakeholders - the banks, the EG, the financiers etc have to all agree with the proposed set up so it is a recipe for delay etc - and that is before any hard ball negotiations begin and due diligence occurs.

After the deal if it happens he was expecting Kefi share to be over 50% but probably not more than 60% - all still being discussed.

HE never addressed any immediate funding questions cos he wasnt asked - weird that eh

Hi guys

I’m new here - Obviously the market on a bit of a downer on micro !! I just keep coming back to the Secure cash flow from ongoing subscriptions the fact that not many corps will be upgrading Core IT systems and will make do and mend in this upcoming recession. I think the divi will be reinstated at the next opportunity As things settle down and the future clearer (even if at a lower level than before) and that will be the catalyst for a rerate unless something happens in the interim Such as a bid ( well I’m ever an optimist ??

good and relevant questions I think - harry usually only answers the ones that begin with - Harry can you explain to us all why you are so awesome etc etc but good luck !!

Perhaps you could also ask -

1. If TK project funds are raised on plan do you envisage doing a corporate fund raise (hopefully at higher share price) in the next few months to support ongoing corporate costs as well as funding SA development

2. If project funds are delayed in any way how long does Kefi have before it needs to do a fund raise to support ongoing corporate costs and funding of the SA development

well as I have said a few times before because Kefi gave me years and years of pain through their deceptive RNSs - when news was always just around the corner - next quarter, next month, in one case I remember HArry saying the cash would arrive within days - to a Conference of African miners no less - so yes I do have a grudge against the management and their lies and would like to warn other investors - a few here I could name whose justification for buying shares is because the RNSs said so - I've not come across a company like Kefi that so blatantly lies and rips off newbies but I dont claim to be across the whole market! As for the amount of time - I post once or twice a day but usually only to rebutt an untruth/ point out a flaw in logic - note I never have an issue with someone like Investor who UNDERSTANDS the risks, is more SOPHISTICATED in his approach by discounting much of the hyperbole and takes a position aware that it could all go T*ts up - most of the rest of the posters seem naive beyond belief (as I was back in the day). Anyways thats my 2nd post so bye for today !

Guys, you have been making predictions for weeks now on daily share price movements and you have been wrong every day- will you be right today - who knows but if you are in for the long term rather than make a quick 10-20% why bother - you know the price will only move substantially on any news good or bad on fundraise. It has only risen over lately because of the movement in gold which has so logically will fall back if the gold price takes a pause but none of us can predict that. While you are all making speculative predictions on $ gold price in the months and years to come please remember that it is irrelevant to Kefi shareholders. What matters is
a. that Kefi actually produces gold (you all think it will - I'm not so sure Kefi PIs will be involved when the TK site starts producing which I think WILL happen in the next decade at some point) but ignoring that for a moment

b the gold price IN STERLING - sterling has risen 6% against the dollar lately (offsetting much if not all the gold price move for Kefi shareholders) - if the UK does comparatively well with its public finances versus the US then that strengthening will continue (to Kefi PIs detriment) if not and the £ weakens then that will benefit Kefi shareholders - my point being its not just the $ gold price that matters cable is equally important.

On another point someone said earlier that there wouldnt be much DD just a quick look at a spreadsheet and here you can have our $200m cash you AIM minnow. I mean what planet does that guy live on - has you ever bought house never mind being involved in a serious bank loan - the hoops they will make Kefi to go through to get the financing will be enormous - meetings with the EG, guarantees potentially, site visits, mining experts pulling apart the financial models and underlying assumptions, stress testing etc .

If you miss a few house payments the bank swoops in and takes the house at whatever price and sells it for whatever it can to get its money back and tough luck on the former owner. Do you think it is any different when the borrowing is $200m+? . IF Kefi get the cash (which is still a big If ) but if it does you should ask them to publish the terms if covenants are missed - I imagine there will be liens on TK and SA assets so if things go pear shaped (project delayed, gold price drop, civil unrest you name it) the bank will be able to step in and sell off what they can to get their money back and the £30m PI equity will be wiped out. You optimists will think that wont happen like all investors over the years never thought they would be wiped out and maybe it wont but with the likely biggest economic shock in the last hundred years about to play out you have been warned !

BUT doesnt it speak to a lack of basic competence at least from the FD and partly explains why no one in the financial markets trust these finance guys and why they have been fooled time and again by more sophisticated players - luckily they dont have any new finance deals to do soon - hold on..............................

Direct from the RNS

45% NPV for Project @$1700

USD $ 180M, GBP £ 152M - a rate of 1.18 .

The current rate is 1.295 - a full 9%-10% difference - dunno what the FD is playing at - incompetent - I mean if they cant get that right doesnt give you much faith !

if that were true tintin why did they say SIGNIFICANTLY ahead just a few weeks ago - what has changed - to my mind can only be that offer terms (if any) are worse than they expected and are looking for other options - they may agree something in the end but it is likely to be very bad for PIs (though management and RAB and the financiers will do OK!!!)

Well to those of us who have taken off our rose tinted spectacles the ONE new thing in that report was very subtle but will be picked up by the market. In the previous RNS just a few weeks ago Harry said project equity funding would be finalised “SIGNIFICANTLY ahead “of October finance close now it is just “ahead” of October close - that is Kefi speak for the financiers are playing hardball and they can’t agree on anything sensible for PIs as they know they have them by the short and curlies!!!

Well perhaps if someone would answer any of his questions (Investor an honourable exception) then perhaps he wouldnt have to keep posting.

I'm interested to understand why you others believe that in the next say 8 weeks Kefi will definitely

a. Raise circa $40million from equity investors who are as yet unnamed and unknown and then within 30 days

b. Raise $200m from two African banks

c. do all the various due diligence, administrative tasks that will be required from above

in the middle of a pandemic with political unrest and a liquidity crisis

Is it because Kefi management have said they would ? If so I would ask you to use common sense and refer you to basically every RNS from the last 3 years when they promised the same thing (different flavours - bond instead of bank loans, ANS instead of these new financiers but same principle). to stunning failure.

If they are able to do this I will say well done to Investor but I don't think it is unreasonable for anyone to take their assurances with a very large pinch of salt and ask if they are not able to deliver what the impact will be. We know there will be future fund raises to keep the lights on in any case (Harry has stated this) but if finances are delivered then the raise can get done at higher levels and dilution will not be so large but if not the raise will be at a deep discount because of the uncertainty.

and i genuinely hope it works out for genuine LTHs s they have been through hell and lost 90%+ of their investment but i just dont think it will. I got out by the skin of my teeth and am more than happy with my outcome and am simply warning newbies that there is a very real prospect of complete meltdown - if you are prepared to risk it for an ever decreasing upside because of the share register then you are big boys/girls go for it - I just hate new posters with no background and knowledge ramping incessantly the same posts time and again as if it is information because I think they may work for Kefi to try to get the share price up for financing - some of them have posted 400 posts in the last month on Kefi alone but nothing before and no other companies with insipid observations as if gold price times estimated oz in situ as market cap without you know those pesky things like costs of production and distribution, wholesaling financing verheads nevermind the political, operational, and financial risks to even get there and although gold is currently at multi year highs there is no guarantee it wont go back to where it was a few months ago if the next three years

so no actual disputing of the facts merely some assumed bias / motivation on my part - brilliant riposte

is what I'm doing scaremongering ? I have been a long term shareholder (many have been longer but most of the rampers here appeared around 6 weeks ago) who did believe Harry when he said the same things around 2.5 -3 years ago when he stated in RNS after RNS that funding was sorted, confirmed, unconditional and any delay was merely admin issues, security hiccups, final crossing the t's etc - here we are 3 years later, 1.5 billion shares issued with plenty more to issue, finance deal after finance deal ended with those "partners" taking lots of PI cash. HArry and his consultanncy firm taking around half a million pounds a year in fees, overhead costs of £5million (before you even think about the project investment that will be necessary to advance in SA and TK), not a single director buying at these apparently bargain prices. - I'm simply pointing out facts for those new to Kefi versus fanciful predictions from many others. This is all before you think about the project - huge by Ethiopian standards and who among us has known a project like this to proceed on time - they say 2 years - I say in you dreams - relocation of scores of families, the timing of which is critical re crop cultivation and rainy season, the unrest in the region which could spill over, the two state of emergencies that have happened recently, the attempted coup, the Covid pandemic which obviously affects Ethiopia but also the people who are meant to build the mine - will they be allowed to travel/ stay either by EG or their own governments, upcoming elections which could put new politicians in power who could easily take a differing view on how the proposed mine proceeds should be shared/ organised, on site operational set backs re power, infrastructure or whatever. Frankly if they cant get the leading lights of Ethiopia to give them $9m what the F*** hope is there for all this to happen to schedule without huge dilution if at all. Still a dead cert no doubt now it has tripled in the last two month so hardly any downside or so I'd buy lots more go for it