Member Info for Smellyben

definitely see your point I admit it is a bit crazy to think that gold will go back to a price we admittedly havent seen since (hold on I'll just check ) err a whole 2 weeks ago when everything was different (must have been by your logic) versus a price it has never seen - maybe not crazy after all

Absolutely- when you and oily are in agreement ( two posters here on opposite positions but who talk sense and I respect) I give it serious thought And looked good to me. Over 700 I’ll trim myself

Investor pay is looking good - thanks for the tip !!’

Those ??????????were meant to be smiley faces

Great????

individual companies can sometimes have extended disconnect but overall asset classes always revert - I'll happily bet anyone here £100 that we see 1850 before we see 2250 if there is a way to make that happen ?

Because all financial asset classes - equities, commodities etc always revert to the 200 day moving average - look at any chart ever and this happens. Bubbles happen when every one jumps on board and burst when the opposite happens and try to get out. In terms of what could spark it off could be equity friendly comments from presidential candidates , a reconciliation with China, progress on a vaccine or any number of other positive developments for bonds or equities.

The longer term price was not my point - completely depends on macro events like whether a vaccine will be found, fed response, presidential election etc etc - my point is nothing goes up in a straight line and I would expect a fallback to at least 1850 maybe lower In the next couple of months

i investor just on the return mean thing I meant in comparison to other asset classes - obviously everything increases in price due to inflation but its the relative price of gold to the various indices and other assets like houses etc.

I agree the debate is repetitive and havent posted for days until today but if I'm attacked and called a liar I have to respond. There can be nothing new here until there is actual news - some think the SA results will impact though I'm not entirely sure what surprises are hoped for to move the share price, for me its whether funding can be achieved which of course would be positive or whether it will be delayed and dilution announced which will be the opposite ! I'm leaving now unless someone attacks me personally or tells blatant lies (opinions are fine!)

Investor - I agree the long term gold price is at a higher level than a year ago from the monetary action the US and others have done for Covid. I’m just disputing the proposition spouted here by some that the rise will continue on and on and that 2000+ is the new normal - I’m a believer that huge asset classes revert to the mean over time whether that be P/E ratios etc - yes there are bubbles and dips below but ultimately they go back to averages.

Hi ss

Apologies if I have misunderstood this - but I thought the way it worked was essentially like a forward contract that the financiers would commit to buy x amount of gold from Kefi at the 1400 strike price up to the value of their financing ( with some interest/ discounting ) So to make the maths easy if they gave $140m they would get 100k of gold? I know this is crude maths so good if someone expanded but the essential point is Kefi sell at 1400 not 2000 or whatever the price is now

What Harry said clearly in the recent Q&A ( where he Wasn’t asked any dilution questions that I sent in) was that he was in discussions with financiers and the gold price they were discussing was around $1400 level( or £1060.) - The rise over the last couple of weeks is irrelevant in that regard as professionals don’t consider that to be the long term price of gold - I will provide the time and snippet if people disbelieve / want as the rampers don’t want you to hear it as they are spouting nonsense about a rise in recent weeks impacting that valuation. He was confident he could get it done but then again he said ANS was certain and unconditional and we all know how that panned out so I take that with a huge pinch of salt but other genuine holders might take a different view which is fine but I think handing over real hundreds of millions of cash to a minnow with their management in such a volatile time is very uncertain. What is clear in my mind is even if he does manage to get the cash in the bank ( rather than agreements/ proposals / commitments etc) it will be done at a high cost to PIs ( Harry et al Will continue with their noses firmly in the trough).

Well firstly Kefi doesn’t actually have a product at the moment - it potentially has if a whole series of events happen over the next 2 to three years In order without delay but until they get funding and the whole Covid/ internal situation calms down there is a significant risk they never will have. To put valuations on this as if it is actually producing gold now is frankly absurd.

Secondly, even someone like you probably should understand that if asset prices double but the number of people who get a share increases fivefold you are actually far worse off - perhaps you should try studying for your maths GCSE instead of annoying the adults.

Do not call me a liar - you can disagree with my analysis or take a different view on how the COVID/Egypt/civil unrest/financing /dilutions etc will play out but I never tell a lie - You are a blatant ramper as a review of your (thousands ) of posts on Kefi illustrate. you say Kefi has millions of tonnes of copper - it doesnt - it has 34% of JV that they cannot afford to develop (their share was 40% and they had to give the 6% for some initial drilling/testing - where are they going to get the money to develop or do you expect them to dilute again to raise PI funds . You display a complete lack of knowledge only ever spouting what the company PR machine says never reflecting that they have consistently told untruths for 3 years and more - I could fill a library with the amount of RNSs that said financing was agreed , about to happen, next week next month etc - you take them at face value - but please update your copy and pastes as the info is out of date folling teh tripling of the price in the last couple of months.

Hi Investor I only make the point because it looks like there are a few new faces so I wanted to give them a rounded picture rather than the rampings of others - I'll leave now until next week

no brainer? How about a few facts instead of your ramping

1. KEfi was in a far better position a couple of years ago when they had (apparently ) secured financing from major local institutional investors

2. At the time there were circa 400m shares - today this stands at 1.9 billion as they diluted and diluted again as financing was delayed a few months time and again and PIs had to fund the price of Harrys failure - he continued getting his £300K + a year .

3 Overhead costs of £5m per year - last funding raising of £3.7m gross (net was about £3.4m) from 6 months ago is running out - end of this month/early next which will prompt another round of financing - they will hope the share price stays around here so they dont have to diilute too much but dilution is on its way - it is inevitable if you use simple maths.

4 the financing people are talking about (if you are new) is for the project of TK NOT for corporate expenses so dilution is a dead cert

5 Ethiopia has had two major states of emergency in the last 5 or 6 years - the last one ended about 18 months ago but recent civil unrest, spate with Egypt and protests especially in the TK region has risen over the last couple of months - there has been an attempted coup and I would not bet against another state of emergency - not an ideal environment to lend a minnow over £200m

errrrrr like the last time when they couldnt get $9million ?

unless of course financing never comes - they have been waiting 3 years to no avail - when it doesn't arrive there will be yet another dilution to raise funds for 6 months of Harrys salary - rinse and repeat and this will be under a penny again . Ignore the same old rampers if you want to keep your shirt !!

Ha hope not going forward I’ve just put a good chunk of my sipp into Lloyd’s and Barclays ??????

I hope it won’t come to a shooting war but the Ethiopian foreign minister gloating on Twitter hasn’t helped matters and the US under Trump could do things that were unthinkable a couple of years ago so who knows !!! I don’t see the downside for financiers to delay until this all plays out in any case even if they were interested it’s not like Kefi can go back to ANS. better for them to wait until next year after elections. I’m off for a few days at least now - only started because I was attacked earlier by the ramper mob

I make no comments on the whether they are hypocrites or not but they are deadly serious about their water supply and they are led by a military dictatorship I seriously hope nothing comes of it or Covid or unrest - those people have suffered enough and deserve a new future but to ignore the dangers is foolhardy and banks are rarely foolhardy.