Member Info for SmartyP1

Volume is negligible and todays volume showing a red picture and next move down. Personally I don’t get it as this is a buy down here BUT as always, each to their own. Maybe a few chunky credit car bills following an exuberant online Xmas shopping spree, who knows

Doing the maths, Casper will generate more than $40m in 24 if we assume CE cash is landing and prod remains static. Other revenues ? maybe a few more million if project runs over as intimated or additional charter/sale dependant on success/failure. Maybe if they succeed, maybe we could utilise ENI’s drilling team !! Profitability this year likely to exceed $20m and current m/cap c $70m ??

Tick, tock.

Just been looking at the Interim and FY accounts over he last few years and it definitely tells a story and shows how the company has transitioned from debt laden and loss making to a profitable position but the sp has tanked regardless of that transition.

Historic production was c1300bopd for many years, you can see the records from Toggle’s stats. The oil prices were also far lower affecting revenue and profitability yet Caspian continued with their operational plans, running on fumes. 22FY was their best year as they had success with 142 which took prod to c 3500bopd (short lived) and the Ukraine war pushed Brent to $100+ pre sanctions. Revenue and profitability up but had to write down the 3AB investment affecting profitability.

23 interims were positive from a profitability perspective due to continued MR sales and higher domestic pricing but revenue reduced as a result of sanctions. Trading their oil is a welcome benefit that will add Rev/profitability going forward. Cash is down as a result of divi payments and the B8 investment but they’re going to be far more profitable in 24 as a result of CE charter(s) and the non payment of Divis.

2024 could see revenues of $40-$50m based on the current prod of c2000bopd so hopefully they can build on that and maybe export sales are achievable too. One thing is for sure, profitability will be up with CE cash and we should be seeing NP of over $20m this year, that’s higher than FY revenues in most years since 2007. None of this is being translated into shareholder value creation ie the share price BUT the realisation that they’re profitable and funded to continue operations will sink in at sone point, added prod volume will probably be the catalyst.

This is a buy at these levels but I’ve had too many ‘rude not to ‘ moments and any of my spare pennies has been going into the HBs ie VTY/BDEV snd TW. Looking for steady divi payers and some cap appreciation but the likes of Casper are the life changing investments/punts that could add that little bit of excitement IF they converted a deep. Peeps have forgotten initial A5 excitement, many invested today probably weren’t around but if they convert 1 deep, the hype in this stock will be off the scale. Investors are tired of failure but this is now a punt where the odds are in our favour. Never guaranteed but we’ve all bought tickets for the Kazakh lottery, will it be our year this year ? I flippin hope so.

Oil going to pop as a result of continued Red Sea probs, $90 coming and will pullback if Gaza ceasefire agreed.

Surprised that we didn’t see buying on Friday foliwng CE charter confirmation. I believe the deal was at serious risk of being cancelled, nothing new for Caspian but it’s important cash with more likely to follow.

News this week ? if so, a positive set of drilling results please Clive ;)

Oil approaching $84 as Red Sea saga continues. ICJ decision today may lead to ceasefire in Gaza and maybe an end to hostilities. Oil will obviously reverser but currently the oil surge is ongoing. There will be other crises and I don’t see oil reversing anytime soon.

That is really good news and reiterates CC’s last update at $10-15m profit. That’ll be a big chunk of cash and ensures that they can deliver the the active operational schedule planned for 24. Maybe they’ll need the barge for longer if successful and will probably buy it eventually :)

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/eni-readies-exploration-well-near-kazakhstan-s-largest-offshore-field/2-1-1588195

Good find by NN on ADVFN. Hopefully the project is happening as planned, I was starting to worry that it would be another c*ck up !

Oil back above $80 as a result of Houthi tit for tat continues

Can’t believe that we’re back at these levels. 75% down from last years high following divi withdrawal. Had my fair share of ‘rude not to moments’ but I have more than enough and now it’s about time we see a return before it becomes an inheritance planning stock ;)

Adrianz,

Rev declining since they went MR/Domestic sales route but net profitability up.

As you say, we tolerate their poor comms as the opportunity is still in play but we shouldn’t have to. The big miss is drilling success and if they change that, they have more to talk about and more regularly. Memories will be short and it’s the LTHs that carry the scars, the newbies won’t give a stuff. Time for them to reverse that bad run of form !

Very difficult to feel the love when there’s no love to feel. They made a commitment at the AGM to update when news available but looks like they’re back to doing their own thing. They have committed to answer shareholder questions and I took that opportunity pre AGM but it shouldn’t need investors to push for updates. The really material news due is from B8 and 142, everything else is ‘in progress’ ie spudding or drilling ahead. They have communicated the activity plan and it’s comprehensive for 24 but shareholders aren’t buying it as comms are inconsistent and results are poor.

We all know it’ll take very little success for this to spark back to life but very difficult to be optimistic when in the dark. We can go into excuse mode eg weather, supply chain etc but it is frustrating. We should be upbeat re the drilling program, CE cash and possible corp activity but we’re not as a result of the divi faux pas and the lack of drilling success. All about success with the drill bit so until that happens, we bumble along in the dark.

DD,

Let’s hope any buys are priced to be shrewd. Back to prices not seen for 18 months pre the run to 8.6p when everything was starting to look positive but ole Casper does what it’s best at, snatching defeat from those victorious jaws !! 73% drop from the latest high ??

News must be imminent on 142 and B8 wells, the latter being well overdue. Oil prices are trading between the $70-80 range, currently $79 as a result of the geopolitical situation and who knows where it goes next, suspect the Houthi challenge is key to next move. As long s Casper are producing 2k bopd then there should be enough cash to continue Ops and CE cash will help, if it lands as communicated !

Hopefully our Shin is going to get something right and sone of the drilling news is positive .

Https://www.accuweather.com/en/kz/aktau/224630/january-weather/224630

Looks positively barmy to me. Only thing that’s cold is the news or lack of it. Allegedly a lot on so plenty to report on. Hopefully they’ll remember Block 8 next update.

Hi JG,

Let’s hope it really is our year in 24. Sooooo many false dawns, we’re long overdue a change of fortune :)

Another unsuccessful year for our investment. Started with so much promise at 4.5p moving to 8.7 with anticipation of continued drilling success and dividend payments. Snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and now we finish the year down 45%, a very poor performance.

Alas, it’s not in the penny graveyard thanks to many factors but the key 2 are the continued production at MJF and the oil price recovery.

One thing they have to fix is the drilling performance as without success our Casper will just bumble along. They have more assets to exploit than at any other time since incorporation in 2007. 5 deeps already drilled, found oil at all bar the A8 well on Airshagyl but no cigar yet. 2 additional wells in progress at A7 and 803 or soon to be in progress at A7 when G70 rig tested, the most powerful rig that can drill the 5000m depths. Add in Block 8 wells that have been drilled, being tested and we await results. That’s 7 wells drilled, 5 in remedial mode, 1 being spud shortly, 1 in progress and 2 B8 wells awaiting results !

Add in the shallows at MJF/S Yelemes plus the new horizons they’re targeting on Yelemes block ! If Yelemes is successful it will add well needed production and reserves.

Then there’s the CE that hopefully will add continued large chunks of income with first landing this year .

SP is 2.5p, m/cap £56m but this is 50% discounted from current NAV based on MJF/SY only. This is one of the biggest multi bagging opportunities on AIM. The key as always is drilling success but there aren’t many stocks out there if any that will drill multiple deep and shallow wells in 24. They’re funded to drill all of them this year, do the remedial work and any success on the deeps sends this stock flying. Been saying it for years but they’ve never had so much to go at, funded to do so without dilution with CE cash to help fund that continued journey .

All down to Shin and his team as always but surely his bad run can’t continue, if it does then they have to change strategy, get rid of him or bring in people who know what they’re doing.

Is 24 going to be Casper’s year, I sincerely hope so.

Happy and PROSPEROUS New Year to all Casper shareholders, especially the LTHs :)

Obviously had their reasons, each to their own. Year end, could be forced spread net position ? or just had enough of serial disappointment. Stock was very well bid after a strong day yesterday so easy to offload .

Well, I was hoping for another update this week but if we were to get one then I’d have thought today. They’ve stated that they’re testing B8 so regardless of regulatory position, they know the status so let’s see the update . I expected that together with sone corp activity but looks like it’s 24, yawnnnn. Let’s hope it’s positive with 142 .

Posted this on ADVFN, sums it up for me.

1.4m traded and buys to sells at 850 v 550 yet sp down 20% ? Market was very well bid yesterday and you could’ve sold 900k at close of play. We either have a seller (s) in the pipe today as the sp doesn’t make any sense at all. Yes the news detail is not what we wanted to see but the NAV v SP is a joke. We’re price to go under and yep, sentiment/trust is poor but the facts are that this is oversold. Much that comms are poor, there are positives and this is a trading opp for those with appetite for risk. We’re almost back down at Covid levels when running on fumes and prospect of liquidation was a reality. Today it’s a completely different picture -;

2000 bopd (approx)

Higher achieved net oil prices being achieved

Possible higher prices as international export opportunity a possibility

6 wells in operational phase now

Barge contract cash to land in 24

It will take very little to kick this on and any drilling success does that. Block 8 wells are drilled and being tested, what is going on ? Now drilling 803 deep, A7, new horizon at 142, first SY shallow horizon spudded, there’s 6 wells in progress !!

The optimist in me is hoping that there’s corporate activity on the go and they’re waiting for a positive result on B8 wells before updating market. God knows but something has to give at some juncture !!

GWM,

You won’t find a listed share where any CEO has as much skin in the game as this one ! Almost 50% held by the Orazimans and I’m sure they’re more p*ssed off with lack of progress.

What is going to kick this forward ? only one thing, success with the drill bit. The sp is undervalued v NAV but nobody’s listening as they don’t trust the leadership and that’ll only change when they deliver good news and communicating accurately and effectively !!

Et al,

This is a huge trading opp at this juncture if you believe that they will deliver any positive news. They have immured to include news in B8 ? They were testing so not to update us is withholding news. I have written to CC to state that fact together with other omissions. I want to know the facts not to be kept on the potting shed, continually being fed shoite !

We’re now being priced to go under, almost back to Covid levels where they were running on fumes. Today they’re in a far stronger position. More oil being produced than the 1300bopd average where the net oil prices achieved were less. They have the CE cash coming although I’m starting to question that and they have so many assets that ‘could’ generate oil.

Sentiment on its arze, only thing changing that is positive drilling news and we have 6 wells + on the go ie 142 new interval, 141 ? Block 8 2 wells, now South Yelemes horizontal, 803 and A7. That is a VERY busy operational schedule and normally we’d all be hyping the potential but we’ve been here before too many times and the trust is not there, they have to change that !

Loads of opportunity but can these clowns deliver the goods ??

i don’t really know what to say after that . it’s like the orator is schizophrenic or been on the **** the last week and has got out of bed late to pen this note !! this does not follow on from the last operational update and they are doing what they want to do.

from what we know from that update ;

bad news

142 is duff after producing 1400 bopd and the company praising shin and his team.

ok news

prod continues at 2000 bopd approx. why not give us the exact number, you’d have to do that for the accounts !

803 spud

sy horizontal started

barge contract, ce being prepared for q3 start and now $10-15m ? and why not earlier when n caspian is i’ve free

oil maybe able to be sold internationally as prices improved, i don’t get that ?

no news

block 8 ??

155 spud

airshagyl side-tracks

it’s as if cc is being fed info by shin and he’s not sticking to the program, shin that is who i believe is not fit for purpose.

corporate activity ? lack of detail makes me think so but difficult to analyse probably when comms are this poor.cc communicated they have a fair bit on but is that him personally, if so it’ll be corporate activity but impossible to say as we’re always guessing.

there are some positives as stated above and they’re still producing 2000 bopd and maybe able to sell oil internationally, the ce cash is coming in and they can continue to operate without dilution but we won’t get rich unless shin delivers with the drill bit.

It’s good to see a few buys, peeps probably trading the imminent news, good luck with it. Bid is very strong at 700k @2.63, better prices for small amounts but maybe a little run pre news. Hopefully it’s the Kazak oilers spending their Xmas bonus on good ole Casper !