We know that there’s a fair bit on the go operationally and that news is well overdue, pardon the pun. They committed to update investors when news is available so one can only assume that as of now it hasn’t been or they’ve returned to their old ways. Personally, I believe that we get some positive news to lift sp and investor spirits. Let’s hope it’s a Christmas. Cracker not a Einter Stinker.
Next week Clive please :)
Somm,
If he did that would be inside info and the ship isn’t leaky. I questioned Shin’s competence and also the weakness in the executive leadership as not enough Director representation and when the NED was being assigned. I asked about DR if something happened to KO etc, it is something they need to address.
No news on flow tests but stated that there was a fair bit on and hopeful of an upturn in fortunes pre year end. You can’t take anythi g from that as we’ve been hoping for an upturn for ages !
As stated, I sense we’re going to get a mixed bag and corporate activity ? we’ll know soon enough.
It’s Indeoendence holiday in Kaz on 18/19th Dec so I’m hoping we get news next week and not the following as that would probably be a Winter delay special.
Hi Mike,
I still know of 7 holders that hold in excess of 40m shares and that doesn’t include you or any other larger holders. If larger PIs wanted to dump then I’m sure there is a conversation to be had with HQ. They managed the Al Marri overhang but would have to sit outside WCP. I’d be interested in picking up cheap stock but the Mrs now gets to see all banking transactions. Flippin technology, alerts flash up on the smartphone. Told her to delete the notifications as it’ll spoil her Xmas present surprises ;)….lol
Each to their own but anyone dumping here ? I have more than enough but I believe that we will get sone positivity in next update that will start the journey northwards .
I’ve had comms with CC but not much to contribute. He made the statement that there was a fair bit going on but we know that but would not be drawn on news timing or outcomes obviously. As stated I sense that there’s some corporate activity going on in background. At least there’s a fair bit of activity going on but we’re in the dark until RNS but hopefully with sp much on the go, there’s a hope that we may get some positivity.
850 v 250k in favour of sells and still the bid is 125k. Next stop is down as peeps are getting concerned as a result of news delay. This is oversold but peeps aren’t buying it regardless of fundamental value. MJF/SY is being priced at £57.5m (m/cap) and there’s 15-20 years more recoverable oil and currently generating c£22m pa. There’s nothing priced in for any of the other assets inc the CE.
Investors are frustrated with the lack of drilling success but all invested know it’ll take very little success to turn this around. I stay invested whilst MJF and CR cash is continuing to fund the operational process without dilution and surely something has to give soon.
This is a huge trading opp for those who are that way inclined as we know it will bounce as the drilling process continues and the CE cash is on its way next year with more to come. 24 is going to be a very active year on the deeps/shallows and CE cash and no divi cash drain means they should have a busy year. Whether that’s successful or not, that’s another question.
Nice to see sone volume this am with a couple of larger trades. A 500k sell and 250k from peeps with contrasting views. The company committed to update the market when news due so I can only assume that’s there is no news to impart at this juncture. If that’s the case then they must be still testing the existing wells or dealing with challenges within that process but haven’t got to a conclusive newsworthy status as of yet.
As stated I think there’s something going on in background, some sort of corporate activity but that’s pure speculation. I believe next news will be another mixed bag but more positive than negative. One thing we don’t want is the ‘excuse/delay’ winter special.
the ce has probably turned out to be our best asset from a profitability perspective,if capable of delivering $15m+ pa on drilling contacts, almost as much as the mjf/sy current production combined.
we should’ve had news by now. 142 if successful, will be contributing to production as communicated in the last rns but maybe they want to test it for longer and not get egg on their faces following the last brief success before water ingress problems or it could be another **** up !
a5 sidetrack should’ve started too but they need the b8 rig so should’ve had news there too.
also 155 spud but the key news is about production growth so hopefully 142/b8 wells are adding to that and we’re not going to get the depressing winter special ie mothballing ops due to weather and supply chain issues.
long overdue some good news pre xmas, i suspect all invrstors would agree !! :)
They agreed to update market when news is ready to release. I suspect we’ll see news next week, a month on from the last update. Hopefully not the Winter special ie supply chain issues, weather problems etc. They’ve committed to providing detailed updates so hopefully we get that but as to success/failure, nobody has a scooby until released.
Selling has been in the ascendency over last week or so as investors getting wobbly as imminent news not landed yet. Does that mean bad news is coming ? nope, it just means we’re waiting longer and it could be good. Bad or indifferent, hopefully the former.
Somebody adding 500k today which is good to see and the bid has strengthened to 700k as a result and sp will tick up with a small amount of buying but the volume is generally tiny and the MMS plying their trade in a thin market.
Not long to wait for a very material update.
Hopefully we see news this week but more importantly, that it’s positive. The last year has been a shocker with the drill bit and sentiment suffered as a result but as stated many times it’ll take very little positivity to reinvigorate investor interest here.
This is an AIM stock and one that has managed to navigate choppy seas whereby many others have faltered or gone pop. They’ve also managed to do it without extreme dilution, largely as a result of the BNG shallows and hopefully that will continue to be the case and they can build sustainable production going forward. There are many more millions to be recovered from MJF/SY and maybe more if any new structures add to. reserves.
The barge cash next year will add to the funding pot and who knows, they may get repeat business if the Istamay project is successful.
Sunk costs of $100m+ the exploration/appraisal phase will now be complete when 803 & A7 completed. The focus is now on the remedial work on the other deeps that have been drilled at considerable cost. The good news, outgoing costs will decline as no more large CAPEX requirement, that will come if they manage to get the deeps to flow and pipelines etc Will be the major cost.
The other opp is Block 8 but we’ll know more soon. If unsuccessful, I don’t believe they’ll continue to focus on many more wells on that acreage and it will return to the BNG acreage.
As stated many times, this is a multi-bagger in waiting and one day they will hit the jackpot on the deeps. If they can’t do it, then they’ll partner as they’re already doing on 802 & 803.
News this week probably and we are long overdue some cheering up !
Somm,
I posted this on ADVFN a while ago. I asked Casper the question as to structures being drilled. I also asked whether we would benefit from oil revenue pre regulatory approval but not the case. Maybe we await regulatory approval before releasing any positive news as otherwise they’re wasting the revenue opportunity. Probably unlikely.
1. P-1 on the Sholkara structure, drilled in 2016 to a depth of 4,203 meters.
2. P-2 on the Sholkara structure, drilled in 2019 to a depth of 3,450 meters
New wells
1. AKD-4 on the Akkuduk structure, drilled to a depth of 3,925 meters - now awaiting test results
2. T-2D on the Toresai structure, completed and awaiting test results
JS,
Re accountants, yep, that’s the standard line when changing and yep no need for concern on the financial front but I sense something afoot.
Important that they get another independent Director asap, maybe a question from shareholders to our Clive. They are responsive to questions, especially after the request for more detailed and timely updates.
All about production success and the same question remains, are they skilled enough to conquer the deeps or is the geology too fificult ?
Https://wp-caspiansunrise-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/10/CS-INVESTOR-PRESENTION-2023-Interim-results-2-10-23-final.pdf
Hopefully all invested have read the new IP. Much that we know much of the detail, there have added the latest information to make it current.
They’ve detailed he bet oil prices yo show receipts v Brent export. Numbers show that at $93, export is netting $34 v MR/Domestic @$30. Not engaging in the export space as it impacts cash flow with income @60+ days. Current Crude @ $80 so net receipts would be c $27 so current sales route is a far better option for profitability and cash flow.
Caspian also engaging in trading its own oil is important and the IP shows $3.1m profit in 6 months, that is very important especially if they start to build production.
They’ve instructed PKF Littlejohn who are a smaller firm and more suited to a player like Caspian and have a focus on the O&G sector.
https://www.pkf-l.com/sectors/natural-resources/oil-gas/
The timing of new IP and instruction of new accountants ? I mentioned earlier that smacks of corporate activity so hopefully no fundraiser, I think that’s unlikely with current production and income generation so what else could be on the horizon ? Lining the business up for sale ? The only way that could happen is if they started to get success on the deep structures so that’s not imminent. Another listing ? Unlikely as they would need to show some deep success to help kick that off successfully. Help with current or future acquisitions ? Seems strange that they made the appointment and launched new IP but maybe that’s just coincidence and they just wanted a firm that was more suited to their requirements whilst saving a few quid. Hopefully they don’t delay the FY account submissions !
The work program for next 6 months looks far too bullish, especially when they’re stating that supply chain affected and costs increasing. They need to focus on the quick ROI projects ie 142/141/155 as stated plus A5 sidetrack which is our biggest opportunity on A block. Block 8 is imminent and as Somm stated, why test if they hadn’t had oil shows during the drilling process.
As stated many times, the sp is on its arze and it’ll take very little to see our futures change for the better and it certainly is long overdue. Hopefully news next week will start the sp journey back to double figures.
Yep, they do like leaving metalwork behind.
News is overdue so does that mean that we’re set for more drilling disappointment or is Shin about to end his poor run. 142 was a huge boost to production pre the water ingress issues and we had to wait some time before results announced. To be fair, he’s boosted prod from historic levels with his horizontal approach so we know it works, hopefully no more stuck pipes and blockages.
Continued -;
They’ve binned the Divis in the near term, I’m happy to see that too. Never wanted them until they were financially strong enough to pay on an ongoing basis.
Also looking at new onshore and offshore projects which is interesting. I believe these come from Shin’s relationship with KNOC and their disposals but we’ll soon see. Also looking at mineral projects and I suspect that’s why Benny is onboard but I hope they dismiss those ops until they achieve deep success.
The CE is being prepared for the Istamay project and that’s important cash for 24.
3AB has been written off in the books but KMG have now taken on Dunga so who knows, maybe Casper will be able to sell to KMG.
I also see that there could be corp activity in the pipe following new accountants onboard but will be interesting to see what that is.
As stated, we’re in the doldrums, trading activity is on its arze BUT it will take very little to light that touch paper. Still a multi-bagging opportunity but the key priority is achieving that elusive drilling success, hopefully that’s about to change :)
Back from a nice break in Cyprus.
As I see it, our Casper is in the doldrums currently but won't take much to get the wind back in those sails.
Reading the last news update was interesting. Our Clive has committed to provide detailed communications and in a more timely manner and I believe that was one of the better operational updates for detail.
He started the update with the negatives ie supply chain issues and the inability to reap the benefits from gross crude prices but the update was generally positive.
If you take oil production and prices as a starter. At 2000 bopd Caspian are producing much more oil now than they were producing prior to 2019, c 50% more and you only have to go back a year where they were producing 3400bopd until the demise of 141/142. Historically they were producing c1300 bopd and still managing to facilitate the drilling required to meet licence requirements and the oil prices were lower. If you look back at the oil price over the last 16 years, you'll see an average price of $72. Currently we are achieving c$33 from MR/Domestic sales which is far more profitable than they've achieved historically, even when they were exporting. They've stated that they need crude prices of $100+ to make it worthwhile so you can see how well they're doing from current net prices on the domestic market. This is further improved by trading their own oil and they've stated that this is important revenue going forward. In summary, they're in a far better financial position today than they've been since incorporation in 2007, I take that as a huge positive.
The key priority now is to build production and as we know, we're waiting for news on 3 wells imminently that could build production considerably. 142 news is now due as are B8 wells. A 142 success could add 50%+ to current volumes which obviously makes a huge difference financially and B8 wells are significant as they will be Caspian’s first deep well successes with unknown reserves to be assessed. We won’t get payment for the oil until usual regulatory approvals attained but success on these 2 wells will be transformational for all shareholder.
They’ve made the statement on BNG ie finalise licence commitments by drilling 803 and A7 whilst focussing on the remedial work on all the deeps drilled to date ie A5,A6, 801,802. I’m glad to se that there’s no more new deeps to be drilled, firstly as it’s costly and secondly, they now can focus on 6 wells that could transform all our fortunes. I’m also happy to see that they’re planning to work with a partner on 802 on a profit share basis, if this works, I hope they do the same with all the deeps. Drilling competence is the issue and this has to change. The oil has been discovered but pointless continuing to throw good money after bad with continued remedial work if nothing changes so hopefully we see partnership projects continuing if 802 is successful.