Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
Yep, they do like leaving metalwork behind.
News is overdue so does that mean that we’re set for more drilling disappointment or is Shin about to end his poor run. 142 was a huge boost to production pre the water ingress issues and we had to wait some time before results announced. To be fair, he’s boosted prod from historic levels with his horizontal approach so we know it works, hopefully no more stuck pipes and blockages.
Continued -;
They’ve binned the Divis in the near term, I’m happy to see that too. Never wanted them until they were financially strong enough to pay on an ongoing basis.
Also looking at new onshore and offshore projects which is interesting. I believe these come from Shin’s relationship with KNOC and their disposals but we’ll soon see. Also looking at mineral projects and I suspect that’s why Benny is onboard but I hope they dismiss those ops until they achieve deep success.
The CE is being prepared for the Istamay project and that’s important cash for 24.
3AB has been written off in the books but KMG have now taken on Dunga so who knows, maybe Casper will be able to sell to KMG.
I also see that there could be corp activity in the pipe following new accountants onboard but will be interesting to see what that is.
As stated, we’re in the doldrums, trading activity is on its arze BUT it will take very little to light that touch paper. Still a multi-bagging opportunity but the key priority is achieving that elusive drilling success, hopefully that’s about to change :)
Back from a nice break in Cyprus.
As I see it, our Casper is in the doldrums currently but won't take much to get the wind back in those sails.
Reading the last news update was interesting. Our Clive has committed to provide detailed communications and in a more timely manner and I believe that was one of the better operational updates for detail.
He started the update with the negatives ie supply chain issues and the inability to reap the benefits from gross crude prices but the update was generally positive.
If you take oil production and prices as a starter. At 2000 bopd Caspian are producing much more oil now than they were producing prior to 2019, c 50% more and you only have to go back a year where they were producing 3400bopd until the demise of 141/142. Historically they were producing c1300 bopd and still managing to facilitate the drilling required to meet licence requirements and the oil prices were lower. If you look back at the oil price over the last 16 years, you'll see an average price of $72. Currently we are achieving c$33 from MR/Domestic sales which is far more profitable than they've achieved historically, even when they were exporting. They've stated that they need crude prices of $100+ to make it worthwhile so you can see how well they're doing from current net prices on the domestic market. This is further improved by trading their own oil and they've stated that this is important revenue going forward. In summary, they're in a far better financial position today than they've been since incorporation in 2007, I take that as a huge positive.
The key priority now is to build production and as we know, we're waiting for news on 3 wells imminently that could build production considerably. 142 news is now due as are B8 wells. A 142 success could add 50%+ to current volumes which obviously makes a huge difference financially and B8 wells are significant as they will be Caspian’s first deep well successes with unknown reserves to be assessed. We won’t get payment for the oil until usual regulatory approvals attained but success on these 2 wells will be transformational for all shareholder.
They’ve made the statement on BNG ie finalise licence commitments by drilling 803 and A7 whilst focussing on the remedial work on all the deeps drilled to date ie A5,A6, 801,802. I’m glad to se that there’s no more new deeps to be drilled, firstly as it’s costly and secondly, they now can focus on 6 wells that could transform all our fortunes. I’m also happy to see that they’re planning to work with a partner on 802 on a profit share basis, if this works, I hope they do the same with all the deeps. Drilling competence is the issue and this has to change. The oil has been discovered but pointless continuing to throw good money after bad with continued remedial work if nothing changes so hopefully we see partnership projects continuing if 802 is successful.
Interesting update. Much that there’s no conclusive news on current drilled wells, there are positives in this update.
- maintained 2000bopd
- 142 & B8 wells completed awaiting test results
- oil trading adding profitability
- 3AB written off but I suspect their hoping to sell it
We’re on the cusp of very material news from the 3 wells completed so news should be imminent, good bad or indifferent. No more BNG wells and focus moving up remedial effort as opposed to conyiniting to drill expensive deep appraisals.
The interesting bit is the updated corporate presentation which is now up on the website. I’ve not read it yet but this and change of accountants. are they planning some corporate activity ? Making the opportunity look attractive ? Reading between the lines but I sense something going on.
There’s no
From Bloomberg on ADVFN
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/exporting-from-uk/eecan-export-opportunities/kazakhstan-financial-outlook/
We know the oil is there and even if they fail on existing deeps I suspect they will exploit other opportunities eg minerals or sone other venture but can only continue if they’re producing oil
Un,
Peeps are still invested but obviously disillusioned from a very poor year following the promise of a year ago when the return to double figures was on the cards. It really has been a shocking year with the drilling failures, prod decline and cessation of dividends. Many PIs would have sold but many stay invested as the multibagging upside potential is still intact. As we know, it will take very little to reverse the sp downward trend but unfortunately sentiment will continue to be poor and little to say until Shin delivers success with the drill bit. They’re operating in a country where there are vast oil and mineral reserves, in close proximity to the giant Kaz fields yet they can’t get the deeps to flow. They will continue to state that it took 14 years to master Tengiz but we’re now almost 10 years in since A5 and nothing to show for it and sunk costs of $100m+. Why can’t Shin and team deliver the goods ? Can only be down to geology or skill set. Are the structures too complex from a geological perspective or are the team incapable of drilling the deeps with the heat and pressure challenges. Others have succeeded but unfortunately Casper haven’t. 802 was meant to be our best chance yet it’s the same old story, finding the oil but falling at the last hurdle.
As a minimum, Shin has to sort the shallows as a priority and deliver consistent, predictable production from the shallows at c 4-5k, that will give the sp a kick and ensure that they can continue the deep campaign. Our Shin is allegedly well connected to KNOC and I suspect he’s in the business as he can pick up any KNOC blocks on the cheap that are surplus to requirements, it’s certainly not because of his drilling prowess !!
Loads of assets and potential reserves of millions of barrels but sentiment stays low until we sone production success. I stay invested as the opportunity is still in play and the barge contract and shallow prod cash ensures that the game continues.
News next week probably but wouldn’t be surprised if it drags another week. I’m not expecting fireworks but the ship isn’t leaky so I’m hoping to be proved wrong :)
Probably fed up with waiting for news. Volume is tiny as usual and MMS will move the price around to try and stir up a little trade or 2.
Last update a month ago so I suspect we wait til month end/early Nov for our next update. As usual, I don’t care when, just needs to have some positivity :)
TT
Not uncommon but I suspect that there was some disagreement between parties that forced a delay of 22 FY accounts. I have changed accountants various times in my business career and for different reasons.
Only one thing matters at this juncture and that’s revenue generation, primarily from drilling success. Will our Mr Shin change his run of poor results, let’s hope so !!
Https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/05966431/filing-history
The ship isn’t leaky, just PIs trading as per usual. Volume is tiny and the trend over recent days has been to sell as news release on B8/142 is dragging.
They’ve been drilling the B8 wells for ages and nobody knows results, only the insiders. The wait goes on.
Mike,
…lol, there’s enough there I think plus 801 as per Somm’s note.
Our KO has filled Casper with assets and amassed a load of stock. The plan is the same as it’s always been, to prove up the asset base and sell the bleeding thing.
The story continues but something has to ho our way at some juncture :)
As communicated, they have a very busy W4 planned on the operational front. History is evidence that they’re not the best at sticking to timelines so a very large pinch of salt required with their updates !
So, plans for Q4
- Shallows
142 - nearly completed sidetrack so should see news early this month
141 - planning another horizontal as per 142
155 - new well to be drilled
145 - workover not worked so same approach here
Deeps
802- Stuck pipe removal ongoing
803 - to spud
A6 - to be retested
A5 - new sidetrack
Block 8 deeps
First well at TD and testing
Second well close to TD and testing soon
Barge sale/charter
Discussions ongoing
This activity schedule is fairytale stuff , especially as cash is tight but it shows that they have a lot to go at. 142 is important as a successful horizontal as per initial drill will see prod volumes exceeding 3k bopd and 3 other wells to follow. That should be the easy stuff and generates the cash needed to accelerate operations on other projects.
The 2 block 8 well results are imminent, I see this opportunity as an all to gain and almost nothing to lose venture. 110 bopd of production as of today, 800 bopd at peak so hopefully they can increase volumes to historic volumes with the 2 new wells drilled. Worst case they don’t flow and Casper will benefit from existing production v cost of rigs utilised and labour. They won’t continue to drill loads of wells on B8 and drain Casper of equipment availability and resources if initial few wells are unsuccessful. They need to appraise the acreage if first 2 wells produce oil and what’s to lose if they don’t. If they achieved 1000bood total from these first 2 wells, that would generate over $12m pa v a cost of $1.8m as per the $5 per barrel charge, obviously there’s resource costs to be factored in. What’s not to like ? If successful, they’ll continue to appraise and then CPR and increased reserves.
The barge cash from Isatay project is in the bag and a sale at the right price may happen earlier but either way, they have a chunk of cash coming their way so 24 is guaranteed to be profitable.
Sp on its arze and doesn’t reflect the current position but our Casper leadership have continued to score own goals to damage sentiment. As stated many times, it won’t take much to set this off again and for the investor enthusiasm to return. They have a very busy Q4 and whatever they manage to drill , let’s hope they’re positive outcomes.
Peeps are selling pre news and I see it a different way but let’s hope we have something to shout about this quarter :)
Yep, liabilities are up. Divis, Block 8, licence costs and reducing production have all contributed to that situation, that and the increased activity over the last couple of years.
The current financials are far better than at anytime in the last 16 years Nat one year ie 22 when they benefitted from extreme export prices. Their current production at 1953 bopd is c 50% over the historic average and they are achieving better net oil prices as a result of the MR business and their own trading.
They have had a very poor year on the drilling front and success will change the debt position very quickly, especially as Divis stopped. The balance sheet will improve if Block 8 delivers historic or improved production levels and they need to focus on the easiest shallow targets. The NNG deeps will continue and costs should not be extreme as most have been drilled and only remedial work necessary. Will the G70 rig help proceedings ? who knows but there will be 6 deeps drilled (excluding A8) so costs will reduce but that will be probably be replaced by Block 8 activity which will be far cheaper.
The barge cash is also very important and charter(s) alone will deliver huge chunks of cash but a sale enables them to press on with the operational activity to build reserves.
The sp will move northwards again but as always, it’s all about production success, let’s hope they start getting luck :)
Just confirmed the confusion on production totals and it is as thought 1685 + 268, so 1953 in total. The previous statement from CC confirmed 1700 at MJF and I believe investors took that number to be total production when it was MJF only !!
They have to deal with the water Ingress and we’ll soon know if 142 new horizontal has fixed the problem as that’s a big producer.
The journey continues
Looks like they are well advanced at Block 8 wells and ready to test. Rigs, manpower and cash had been diverted to Block 8 which has obviously affected the operational effort at Caspian. Our KO continues to add assets into Caspian and we’ll soon see results to see if this was the right strategy.
The Block 8 contract area extends over 2,823 km2 with The Block 8 contract area extends over 2,823 km2 with three identified structures and production from two existing wells. It was previously owned by LG International the Korean conglomerate, which in 2006 began the acquisition of 3D seismic data over approximately 456 km2. In recent years two deep wells have been drilled to depths of 4,203 meters and 3,449 meters respectively, from which oil has flowed at rates of up to 800 bopd.
Current production from Block 8 is approximately 110 bopd, with oil transported to the same treatment and pumping station used by BNG.
Drilling at Deep Well AKD-4 has reached its planned total depth of 3,922 meters and preparations are underway to test the well.
Drilling at Deep Well T-2D, which has a planned total depth of 3,500 meters, has reached 3,408 meters. After the remaining 92 meters are completed the well will be prepared for testing.
From interims -;
The acquisition of Block 8 will bring a second flagship asset into the Group. Either BNG or Block 8 will then have the ability to transform the value of the Group in the event of successful deep drilling.three identified structures and production from two existing wells. It was previously owned by LG International the Korean conglomerate, which in 2006 began the acquisition of 3D seismic data over approximately 456 km2. In recent years two deep wells have been drilled to depths of 4,203 meters and 3,449 meters respectively, from which oil has flowed at rates of up to 800 bopd.
Current production from Block 8 is approximately 110 bopd, with oil transported to the same treatment and pumping station used by BNG.
Drilling at Deep Well AKD-4 has reached its planned total depth of 3,922 meters and preparations are underway to test the well.
Drilling at Deep Well T-2D, which has a planned total depth of 3,500 meters, has reached 3,408 meters. After the remaining 92 meters are completed the well will be prepared for testing.
The acquisition of Block 8 will bring a second flagship asset into the Group. Either BNG or Block 8 will then have the ability to transform the value of the Group in the event of successful deep drilling.
Financials are better than I expected in H1 but operationally they’ve gone backwards but we knew that.
Revenue down but I missed the magnitude of additional Rev from oil trading which is a plus
PAT better yoy
Drawn $3.4m of $5m credit line
$o.5m CAB as of end June
Need to understand the numbers at SY/MJF which are 1685 and 268 bopd.
802 is another deep problem and why are they removing the stuck pipe, it’ll be easier to re drill the well or focus on 803
No progress on MJF or SY
Block 8 deal agreed but not signed off
CE charter in play 2024, no sale agreed
They are financially secure to continue especially with the CE deal. The story goes on and priorities remain the same and shallow production work is key while the pursue the deeps and develop Block 8.
Divis drained cash, it was suicide to continue that journey so now they have shelved that and will use the cash for the operational effort.
As always, tick, tock.
Https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/rnl93nw
22 Interims above were the best set of results that Casper had produced. 2264 bopd average, $25.6m , $10m PBT, net $7.3. Domestic oil averaging $25 and Urals at $86 generated the huge jump in turnover yoy.
So what are we expecting in the 23 interims ?
- Production shouldn’t be that dissimilar to 22 so could be c 400k boo+ ?
- Turnover will be greatly reduced as no exports so c $12m ?
- PBT ? should be higher as a %
- PAT? Will be interesting to see this number as they are achieving better net prices after costs
- CAB ? - this will be painful as they have spent considerable cash on Divis/Block 8
We’ll know the story next week but there are positives ie
- production levels are far higher than historic numbers
- net prices from MR/domestic market are higher than historic international prices (except when Ukraine war kicked off and no sanctions)
They should be generating enough cash today to continue the drilling plan, especially as divi drain removed. Crude above $90 should also be helping with the net prices achieved . The negative, they’re not getting the gross inflows of cash from the export market but their profitability should be improved but we’ll know more next week.
If you look at turnover/profit for Roxi/Caspian, you will see that we are in a far stronger position today but the sp doesn’t reflect that. The CE charter for next year will be welcome cash if it’s not sold before and 24 is guaranteed to be a good year financially with this net income. The story will go on and they’ll have the cash to exploit the base, the question as always, will they be successful.