RE: TREO17 Jul 2024 20:14
The devil lives in the detail.
First of all, where should the billions of dollars for enabling mining of these deposits come from? Any clever suggestions?
Then:
Angola’s Longonjo is a rare-earth-enriched thorium resource with a difficult mineralisation. There is no trace of the promised “bunkers” for the radioactive waste in the planning, only an open tailings storage. With governments of Angola, the UK and EU as well the IAEA turning a blind eye, Longonjo in Angola could become a potential repeat of the Bukit Merah catastrophe in Malaysia. But we expect an exit of the operator anyway.
South Africa’s Glenover has been around for ages and nothing ever happened, the Steenkampskraal mine is so hot (for Benchmark: this is lingo for high levels of radiation) that crews - if there were any - could only spend very limited time working there, Zandkopsdrift is and remains dormant, the only one with a reasonable prospect of going live is small-but-beautiful Phalaborwa;
Malawi (Mulanje, Machinga, Kangankunde, Milenje Hills, Nkalonje Hill, Songwe Hill, Nanthache Hill) on paper there is only Lindian’s Kangankunde whose feasibility assumptions look reasonable (chapeau to Project Blue). Infrastructure is a substantial challenge. Songwe Hill’s PEA is a disaster and a prime example why rare earth projects fail;
Uganda’s Nankoma is dormant and Makuutu is ion adsorption clay (IAC) on Uganda’s comparatively rather shallow groundwater table. In-situ leaching of the deposit with ammonium sulphate solution will not only poison the groundwater. Similar to China’s Bayan Obo problem with polluted radioactive groundwater assumed to be seeping slowly towards the Yellow River, northern China’s prime water resource, Lake Victoria, one of Africa’s main water resources, could be at risk from in-situ leaching of IAC in Makuutu. Alternative tank-leaching will kill the project commercially.
Wigu Hill in Tanzania has been under international arbitration for quite a while. Vital Metals will only be able to own it should Montero win in arbitration against Tanzania and if Montero stick to the original deal. And if Vital Metals should be successful in taking the shortcut in Tanzania, it will be its Chinese shareholder who will finance and control everything going forward. Overall zero potential of supplies to EU.