RE: FT article on Rainbow22 Apr 2024 20:00
A site close to Kruger National Park in South Africa is becoming a testing ground for US attempts to fight China’s global dominance in critical minerals.
Washington has committed to finance a little-known London-listed miner hoping to extract rare earths — a set of 17 minerals key to clean energy technologies — from the chalky stacks outside the safari park, as the US seeks to challenge China’s runaway lead in accessing the metals globally.
But a 63 per cent drop in rare earth prices since the start of 2022 has called into question the project’s ability to raise funding. The fate of the $300mn mine at Phalaborwa may echo that of others aiming to extract critical minerals for the west, and raises the question of whether US support is sufficient to build up a counterweight to Beijing.
The project, whose site is visited by kudus, springboks and buffaloes, is close to completing a feasibility study on the economics of extracting minerals from gypsum waste generated by old phosphate mines — but it still needs to raise another $250mn.
“The question is ‘given the basket price for rare earths, does it make sense to move ahead?’,” said Andrew Breichmanas, analyst at Stifel.
For the White House, tackling Chinese dominance is a strategic priority: China is home to 70 per cent of rare earths mining and 90 per cent of processing capacity, according to the International Energy Agency.
That gives Beijing a near-monopoly on permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines and fighter jets. China also controls the supply of other clean energy resources such as graphite, cobalt and nickel.
Washington has been seeking to invest in its own future supply. The US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) has invested $105mn into TechMet, a $1bn critical minerals fund, which has pledged $50mn of equity for Rainbow Rare Earths, the company behind the mine, when it is ready to start raising finance to build the plant later this year.
Nisha Biswal, DFC deputy chief executive, said the state entity expected to increase investments in African critical minerals, with this year’s total likely to exceed last year’s $700mn. “This is just the start,” she added.
A key element of that is financing projects such as the Lobito Corridor railway to connect a port in Angola with copper mines in the region. And beyond the DFC, Washington is providing incentives for the construction of US processing plants through the Inflation Reduction Act.
Yet recent price slumps in lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite — all ingredients in electric vehicle batteries — have prompted western producers to shut mines, cut production and reduce expansion plans. Among major miners, BHP is considering closing Nickel West in Western Australia; Albemarle, the world’s largest lithium producer, has cut back spending plans; and Glencore is reducing cobalt output.
Analysts say these projects are at risk from price
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