RE: % ownership question19 Apr 2026 08:11
So the "current" implied 100% Ozango valuation from the Cascade deal sits somewhere in a $355m–$424m range depending on how much of the $150m stops
at Sable versus flows down — not $574m. Pensana's 68.4% pre-deal look-through is therefore worth ~$243m–$290m (~£180–£216m) on Cascade-implied terms,
not ~$393m as the $574m × 42.27% calc would suggest if one read that $574m as current.
Internal inconsistency in the post-deal look-through table. The 42.27% / 26.13% / 15.60% / 16.00% split sums to 100% and is consistent only if Sable stays at 68.4% of Ozango.
The moment you move to the "Sable → ~75%" scenario (giving Pensana 46.35%),Cascade also re-rates to 38.2% × 75% = 28.65%, and the
FSDEA / other-Angolan slice compresses from 31.6% to 25%. You can't run the 46.35% Pensana number alongside the 26.13% / 15.60% / 16.00% line-up.
Market-cap comparison. At ~339.5m shares in issue and ~97p, market cap ≈ £329m ($435m).
If one assumes Pensana is nothing but 42.27% of Ozango post-Cascade, the market is implicitly valuing 100% Ozango at ~$1.03bn, which is where the $1bn figure came from.
The correct way to close the gap against Cascade's $355m–$424m implied number is:
Market cap Pensana plc ≈ $435m
Less: pro-rata cash + Saltend
+ 61.8% of Sable cash pile
+ NASDAQ / option value ≈ ???
Residual attributed to
Pensana's 42.27% of Ozango ≈ ???
The poster's directional conclusion — that the market is valuing Pensana's indirect Ozango stake above the Cascade arm's-length price — is correct,
but the gap is not as dramatic as the $243m vs £328m framing implies once you
(i) strip out the $150m primary-equity effect from Cascade's implied value,
(ii) account for Saltend and PLC-level cash, and
(iii) note that post-Cascade share count rises by 13.55m to ~353m so the current market cap already partly prices in the PLC-level raise.
On the unanswered "how does Sable go to ~75%" question — the poster is right to flag it. For Sable's Ozango stake to rise from 68.4% to ~75% purely via cash-for-primary-shares at Ozango level, you need specific assumptions about the pre-money Ozango valuation Cascade/Sable are using, and these numbers don't balance cleanly without also assuming some FSDEA/Angolan-partner dilution or buy-back. Until Pensana publishes the implementation term sheet (it said "subject to final confirmation"), any look-through model here is provisional.
That's the structural weakness in both the poster's and your prior analyses — not the arithmetic itself.
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