Russia’s African Strategy Isn’t Working5 Dec 2025 04:51
Recent instability in Mali is proof that Russia’s paramilitary presence has never had much to offer West and Central African security and development.
Days after the US State Department, along with a slew of Western governments, told its civilians to leave Mali immediately, the Al Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin (JNIM) rebel group closed in on Mali’s capital of Bamako. On November 5, militants entered Bamako’s suburbs, and government forces are on the brink of collapse.
This outcome resulted from Mali’s junta pursuing a flawed foreign and internal policy, culminating in a doomed counterinsurgency strategy. Alienated from its neighbors with no useful allies after a very public fight with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and facing a populace increasingly hostile to the government, the junta is reaping what it sowed. JNIM is advancing more because the junta is unable to inspire loyalty, rather than because JNIM is winning decisive battles.
The common element in these self-destructive policies was a hasty pivot away from the advice and partnerships offered by Western actors and moving towards an uncritical embrace of Russia. These partnerships were often imperfect and rightfully critiqued by local actors, but the junta’s choice of Moscow as a patron ultimately set it up for failure. The fall of Mali isn’t just a tragic story of state failure in the Sahel; rather, it is emblematic of Russia’s shortcomings, priorities, and soft-power deficits. Russia’s model of assistance was tested and found wanting.
While much of the world is treating this as a jarring bolt from the blue, the truth is that regional specialists have long seen the writing on the wall and identified the Russian element as a catalyst for problems. I was by no means alone when I wrote pieces in 2023 and 2024 on this for The National Interest.
Mali’s junta took power in 2020 after a long-expected coup d’état. Longstanding political grievances, COVID-19-related controversies, frustration over how the government was handling an insurgency led by Tuareg nomads in the north, and instability brought by Jihadist groups ultimately resulted in the resignation of the sitting president and the military seizing power.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russias-african-strategy-isnt-working