AJP I welcome your optimistic outlook. There’s enough room and gloom out there already! Stocks and shares have a habit of surprising for better and worse. For every dip there is a rise and vice versa. ITX is a solid business in the right place at the right time, we are just at the beginning of the green revolution.
Agree this should’ve be up to 140 today. Do people think the proposed dual listing is holding back the share price? Usually it’s a positive as will get a lot more attention on the NASDAQ but perhaps it’s the lack of detail at this stage as to how it will affect (or not) the LSE listed shares?
RE: Sellers vs buyers in short term = SP volatility = risk aversity6 Aug 2021 08:57
If you have been monitoring the trades this week you will have seen multiple buys over £10k through the week amongst the numerous little sells from PIs. As usual it’s the little fish who get jumpy whilst the bigger fish gobble up the shares at an incredible discount. Shares are a long term investment that go up and down - something a lot of new Covid-era investors seem to struggle to comprehend!
RE: i know its not related to arb but its good news5 Aug 2021 18:41
Marathon Digital Holdings are definitely the pick of the Bitcoin stocks. The rate at which they are growing is phenomenal- clearly wanting to mine as much Bitcoin before the next halving. I calculated that within 3 years they would own their current market cap in Bitcoin at the current exchange rate. In reality by 2024 Bitcoin will be worth multiples of what it currently trade at IMO so looks a great investment IMHO. Of course impossible to forecast the future value of BTVC but its a finite resource which increasingly everyone wants a piece of!
Very positive update and pleasing that 5 of their directors hold shares personally in ITX. Feels like we have hit the bottom this week. So the slow climb up will follow. Of course some positive RNS updates could speed up that climb!
Unfortunately we are all guessing because there is insufficient information in the trading statement. I believe in ITX 100% but they need to stick to a set format in their trading updates and let us know clearly how much money they are making or loosing. Sorry for moaning but the company is not helping its position with information poor statements
Yes you are right AJP but in the absence of a proper financial statement it’s all we have to go on. We all love ITX but it’s accounts are rather opaque and do not provide a full picture! One noticeable difference between the H1 trading statement and the M1 to M5 trading update prior to the fund raise is that the M5 update did not state the cash position. In fact the trading statement led us to believe all was well... “The Company's balance sheet will also be strengthened following notification that the US Small Business Administration intends to forgive the $0.2m loan that Itaconix received last year under the US Government Paycheck Protection Program, which will eliminate this liability.” Had the cash position been given in the M5 trading update I imagine the share price would have fallen more than it did which in my opinion the company wouldn’t have wanted if they were raising funds with a 12.1p share price. I hope in future the company provides a fuller set of accounting figures!
I should have quoted $ not £ but anyway figures are: Cash at end of 2020 was $1.448m Fundraise of $1.5m Cash at end of 2021 was $1.4m So taking into account the fundraise our net cash position deteriorated by $1.548m I agree they will have used the fundraise towards raw material stock piling which will benefit the H2 position.
In case your wondering what the loss was I calculate it at £1.548m for H1 and that’s what I believe led to the sell off. H2 needs to deliver a healthy profit to restore market confidence and for the reasons given in my earlier post I believe it will. For new investments at today’s share price that represents a cracking opportunity to ‘hopefully’ IMO double your money in 6 months! I hope we will all still be here in 6 months to see this realised.
Thanks guys for providing the details of the large trade (I should’ve looked more closely). In answer to the “what’s changed” question I believe the market reaction is because H1 posted a bigger loss than expected. Though that loss isn’t broadcast in the RNS you can easily calculate it from the changes to cash balance and subtracting the recent fund raise. Many of us had talked about the company moving into profit. However I can fully understand the company making a H1 loss given a) revenue was lower than 2020 H2 (though it was significantly up on 2020 H1). b) higher raw material costs c) sales prices agreed pre-inflation. The company has now taken steps to address this by stock piling raw material and adjusting selling prices moving forward. We also know H2 sales will be very good. So I expect H2 to move us into profit and the market will react extremely positively to that. So 6 months of patience is now required.
Wow 900,000 share buy! Hopefully today marks the Nadir for the share price and the slow recovery begins until ITX chooses to share some news on its positive developments which we know are coming.
ITACONIX PLC - Post AGM Shareholder Engagement, along with responses to questions that were answered by the company are now available for you to review in the meeting archive.
RE: Excellent in depth interview with CEO29 Jul 2021 11:15
With revenue of approximately £15.6m and EBITDA of approximately £1.8m the market cap of £24m seems incredibly low. This company is on the leading edge of 5g/6g next generation technology with an incredibly talented team. I keep topping up on a regular basis now as I believe it’s only a matter of time before the market wakes up to what this company is sitting on!
Excellent in depth interview with CEO28 Jul 2021 10:39
I’ve watched a lot of CEO interviews but Richard Gibbs knocks the ball out the park when it comes to his breadth of technical and market knowledge. Well worth the watch if you have any interest in investing in Filtronic.