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Finch

Very true

If this is a pro mining jurisdiction, god help us if we ever try and get a licence in a jurisdiction that drags it's feet!

It would be almost impossible to update the market regarding the delays without openly blaming the inexperienced staff at the cadastre or the Zambian mining authorities, not something you want to do when you are finalising negotiations with a regime you hope to work with for years to come.

Incredibly frustrating I know but better to just get on with it and wait for the Zambian bureaucracy to run its course

Everyone knows who you are and the game you’re playing… except this time we’re all a bit wiser regarding the frauds you perpetuate

The results for the 75th meeting of the Mining Licensing committee are now overdue.

The 74th meeting was held five weeks after the 73rd meeting and on Friday it is seven weeks since the 74th meeting (3rd/4th August)

Not saying ours will be in it but the results should come any day now.

I was previously of the opinion that the approval of the licence would be released at one of the MLC meetings.

However, if they did that the licence would be issued with a wimper when the report of the next meeting is published on the

Ministry website. Having listened to the Minister a couple of times now it is obvious he wants the Zambian people to see

what a great job his party have done in reforming the licensing process and he doesn't waste a chance to tell everyone.

He will want to get the maximum political advantage from this and to do that he will announce the granting of the licence

with a specific news conference or a press release. This will ensure he and the Government get the maximum media coverage of the announcement.

If I am right then the MLC meetings as such are not as critical as I previously thought, the licence could be granted at any time.

We know the Minister has signed the licence transfers, so we must be close.

I expect to see a statement that the Minister is going to release a statement at a certain time in relation to the Anglo/Arc

licence.

The point being I thought if we missed an MLC meeting we were in limbo for another five weeks, I no longer think this is the case

AIMO

What the Minister said yesterday considerably de risks the share in my opinion and that is the main takeaway.

There will only be an RNS when the licence has gone through. Why comment on the Minister's reply and risk upsetting anyone when the process is still ongoing.

72nd Meeting - May 17th to 22nd

73rd Meeting - June 29th to 30th

74th Meeting - August 3rd to 4th

The meetings don't seem to have a rigid timetable but are about every 5 weeks.

That should mean the 75th meeting is either the end of next week or the beginning of w/c September 11th.

Given the number of licences dealt with each meeting I would have thought that the applicants would have advance knowledge that they had already met the criteria. Presumably they have to wait for the actual official confirmation from the Ministry before the news.

The doom mongers seem to have changed their stance recently. It was always, this deal will never happen.

Now there seems to be an acceptance that it will happen but the cash will be hived off by the directors.

They will have to be very careful or they could end up being bullish.

Whilst I am still confident of a positive result here, I think it best to be realistic about the cash position.

Without speaking to anyone you can see from the Annual Report of December 2022.

Arc had £616,000 in cash and equivalents and the annual wage bill is £848,000. With no money coming in currently its easy to see that cash is getting low.

Some people have said the MLC meet once a fortnight but as the meetings are numbered I believe it to be once a month.

The 73rd meeting of the MLC took place 29th to 30th June 2023

The 74th meeting of the MLC took place 3rd to 4th of August 2023

The 75th meeting should be at the beginning of September and if the licences are issued I believe we will be alright. However, if there is another months delay into October I think Arc would probably need to raise funds.

I would hope this to be done by means of a loan as it seems crazy issuing equity at this share price if news is close.

AIMO

The group of individuals who are using social media to try to talk this company down obviously have a motive.

The usual deramping involves posting negative comments in an attempt to make investors panic and sell shares, the price falls allowing these individuals to take a stake at a lower entry point. When the share re rates they make a bigger profit.

In this instance this scenario can be discounted because if this was the objective it has been achieved. Despite the low share price these individuals still don’t intend buying.

If this was their intention they would already have bought and moved onto the next target.

IF they are proved right and this goes horribly wrong and the company fails, do they want to say “I told you so” and then leave feeling vindicated and satisfied, I don’t think so.

The only logical explanation is that is personal. An individual or a group of individuals have a grudge against Arc or NvS from something that happened historically. It probably relates to ownership of the licenses and they believe they have a claim on them.

Having lost a claim to licenses that they know have huge potential they are trying everything in their power to talk the company down, in the hope that they can cause panic amongst shareholders and presumably Arc fail or get taken over. Perhaps only then would they feel satisfied.

As I have said previously, there has been nothing concrete to date to suggest that this deal will not complete. A junior miner making a deal with a major is going to take time. The major will want everything checked before completion. Similarly a junior miner in this position can’t really say a lot at this stage because they do not want to risk upsetting the mining authorities or their new partner, this makes them an easy target to go for.

If you watch that interview with the Minister of Mines you get an idea of why this is taking longer than expected. He gives an update to say there is no update but they are having a progressive meeting. He then says about six times that they are following the letter of the law and finally watch this space.

He appeared to have only given the update because he had previously undertaken to do so.

Despite the negative comments on here from posters who do not seem to hold any shares in the company, I have yet to see anything concrete to suggest that this deal will not complete.

Yes progress has been mind numbingly slow but this is Africa and we have to wait.

Criticism of Arc/Anglo at this moment is a bit unfair because it is out of their hands, they have submitted the relevant documents and they wait for approval.

Anglo have done this enough times before worldwide to know exactly what is required but even they have to allow the wheels of bureaucracy to turn.

I feel for any nervous investors who have sold within the last couple of months, especially if they have held shares for a while. The fundamentals still remain the same and how much do Anglo want these licenses?

Regardless of your view of the share it is clear they value them highly. Given their previous ownership and their unwavering pursuit of getting this deal over the line, they have shown how much they believe big copper is here.

There has been talk of the valuation of the company, worth £33m now.

If Arc walked away and put their 20% share up for sale on the open market, what would it be worth? Given Anglo’s faith in the licenses would another major want to take a stake in this highly prospective licence, I think so.

Would Anglo have taken the lot initially if they could, of course they would.

This very generous ground breaking deal was agreed because Anglo want it and were prepared to pay.

At the moment you can’t give Arc shares away because everything is still up in the air and they are a junior miner with the associated risks.

However, once the deal is completed they are a junior miner in partnership with a major in one of the most prospective areas for copper on the planet, who also have a free carry for 7 years, can sit back and watch what develops, safe in the knowledge that cash keeps rolling in.

Will that proposition seem attractive to any Fund Managers on a risk/reward basis?

I think it will and that is why this could yet go from Zero to Hero.

AIMO

A dividend went into my account for £216 and I thought I'd buy more Arc with it. Purchased 6270 shares this morning. This is the only trade showing and the share price is 2.94% up.

Https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/MTC/02663482.pdf

https://www.tradingview.com/news/marketindex:33f00601e094b:0-gold-strike-upgrade-at-aussie-explorer-s-eastern-european-drill-site/

I think most of us are of the opinion that Anglo would have taken 100% from the start if they could. The deal was struck at 70% but I’m certain it is Anglo’s intention to eventually own all of it if they can.

For any potential suitor looking to buy Arc’s 20.1% the sooner they make their move the cheaper it will be. The more drilling Anglo undertakes, the more copper they find, the more Arc’s share increases. It is obviously better for any buyer to get in before the true value is realised.

If Anglo hit good copper results this year, I believe the vultures will start circling.
Yes Anglo may find no copper but historically Arc have found copper virtually everywhere they have drilled and Anglo have allegedly an excellent Geo Team to pinpoint targets.

When the deal is rubber stamped and the licenses approved Arc’s share will look very attractive to other miners/investors/car manufacturers wanting to secure future copper at relatively low risk.
It only takes one suitor to make an approach with a cash offer and it kicks the rest of them into life. The dream ticket is then obviously a bidding war, with the winning offer put to a shareholder vote.

Some investors believe it will take a few years before we get an approach, they may be right but with every hole drilled potential suitors are taking the risk that they might hit the motherlode.
For that reason I think we will see interest in our share of the JV once positive drill results start landing

AIMO

Didn't NvS say in the Webinar that Tingo had been doing well recently?
I took that to mean the shares had recovered

TMNA merged with MCT the resulting company is
https://www.tingogroup.com/company-information/executive-team
Directors from both Tingo and MCT
The ticker is TIO
How many shares we own after the merger I am not sure

TIO is the ticker currently $2.18

When Anglo signed the deal they took a risk. They signed a binding deal with Arc/Kopara when the licenses have not yet been approved by the ministry.
This surprised me because after all this time I fully expected Anglo to take the cautious approach and extend again until everything was tied up with a bow.

Why did Anglo do this? We will all have our own opinions
My view is that it was a calculated risk they were prepared to take to ensure they get a good six month drilling program this year.

Anglo have had ample time to do extensive DD on Arc, they know the licenses well having previously owned them and they must be confident the licenses will be approved.
By taking this risk, that they didn’t have to do, it shows just how much they wanted to ensure the deal went through and that they didn't want to delay their drilling plans