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To be fair to NvS I asked the question, others might not and just reproduce his reply.
My take on that is in his comments to many shareholders some might be taken out of context.
I gave the gist of his reply just not verbatim.
My error in mentioning it, I won't do it again.
I wrote to NvS on Friday, it was a lengthy email giving my thoughts on the share price, news flow, drilling, Botswana, deals, takeover, court cases etc.
I didn’t hold back and expressed my frustration and I was critical on quite a few areas.
I didn’t expect a reply and I said as much in the email.
Again, I was pleasantly surprised to receive a reply. I have asked if I could reproduce his reply on this board but he requested that I didn’t. However, I don’t think he would object to me saying that he is equally frustrated at not being able to share more with us and he is pretty confident of turning the tide.
Now it all boils down to whether you trust him, I do.
I also think this is one of those occasions that, when a deal is announced and with the benefit of hindsight, a lot of investors will be kicking themselves for not buying at these ridiculous levels.
At these prices I couldn't resist another 174,000 for £5k
To any investors who have not experienced these tactics before.
I have when I held shares in Atalaya Mining based in Spain (ATYM) a few years ago.
A disgruntled former employee/shareholder tried everything from mud slinging, dubious court cases as well as having a team of de rampers on the boards.
Ultimately he was dismissed through the courts and the company has moved on.
I am sure this will happen here, I know this is Africa and not Spain but the similarities are there to be seen.
When you have a valuable asset people will try any way they can to make a claim but ultimately the courts will show who is the fraudster.
I remember NvS said previously that he likes Zambia because their legal system is based on the UK system, these people will be found out.
I couldn’t resist another 169,000 shares yesterday at 3p.
With a market cap currently around £33m would any of the majors currently eyeing Arc pay £100m for the company?
In my opinion they all would and probably bite their hand off.
By any stretch of the imagination the current valuation is cheap given the assets they own.
AIMO
I again emailed NvS yesterday to ask for an update regarding this. To be honest I did not expect a reply as my email was strongly worded and very critical of the delay. To his credit he did reply
"All dependent on met testwork - which has been delayed due to Covid issues in both Zambia and SA. As soon as we have an update we shall inform the market."
Quite understandably some investors are fed up of waiting.
It is after all over 15 months since NvS publicly congratulated LTH's for hanging on in there during an investor call, the inference was the waiting is almost over and the good times are round the corner.
What we need is an update on the scoping study. It should have been completed by mid June and here we are at the end of October.
I wrote to NvS in early September and received this reply 3rd September 2021
"Testwork still underway. This has taken longer than expected but recoveries looking good so far."
Now almost two months later, nothing.
We at least deserve an update as to what is going on with this. A feasibility study has to be undertaken once the scoping study has been completed but we have already had a four month delay on the stated timetable.
This was the missing part of the jigsaw and presumably what Anglo wanted to see, this de risks the share even further.
My concern was that we finished this drilling season without finding copper sulphides and that would delay any deal. I know we have to wait for the assay results but clearly from the look of the cores and the initial tests Arc believe they have found what they were looking for.
We now need the scoping study for the Cheyeza plant to be released to show that the company can become financially self sufficient relatively quickly, that will take away the financial pressure and enable them to play hardball with the majors.
Fantastic news exactly what we wanted. Anglo will be kicking themselves they didn't buy it when they had the chance, it will cost a lot more now.
Market Cap £37m - Really?
F29 couldn't agree more. Botswana is a sideshow that will not come into play until most of us have sold up and moved on. If the terms remain the same they can delay it for a year or two for me and as you say hopefully it will cost Arc fewer shares by then.
I am of the belief that if it wasn't for Remy's keen interest in this area, NvS would never have bought this asset at a time he was looking to get rid of non core assets.
Things should get interesting in the next couple of weeks. They have been drilling for two months today and initial results can’t be far off.
The scoping study is overdue but I have had an email assurance from the company that it is still coming.
Rothschild have been onboard for over six months now and, as they are not on a retainer, they are relying on a decent commission once a deal is agreed to give them a good payment.
The Bears will say the drilling results will be poor, whilst the Bulls remain optimistic.
The constant squabbling serves little purpose now, the share price has remained around this level for sometime and it is clear that it is news that will propel the next movement.
I’m not expecting another Investor Call until we either get drill results or the scoping study for the Cheyeza plant is released. NvS has already primed investors that because they are drilling deeper this year, results will be released less frequently. For that reason if the initial drill results are poor (IMO) I wouldn’t expect them to be released, they will just press on with the drilling campaign.
GLA
There is a big difference between being frustrated with your investment and being worried about it.
I am not worried about my investment and I am still confident of a good outcome here. We have a commodity that is going to be in increasing demand, a large licence with multiple targets, majors already interested and a ridiculously low valuation. The current market cap is around £36m and I would be very disappointed if they sold the lot for £200m.
The political situation was a concern but that has now been resolved.
That said, holding this share is extremely frustrating.
The main frustration for me is the lack of communication to shareholders. During the long year of the EA I expected and understood the silence from the company. However once the EA expired we are no longer are under any obligation to anyone. So whilst I expect silence on any deal negotiations, I now expect to be regularly updated on the day to day running of the company. By this I mean in relation to the drilling campaign, the scoping study, revenues received etc.
Bearing in mind the Cheyeza East plant is supposed to be in production in a year’s time and that we were told in Q2 that they “had their foot to the pedal on this”, we are still awaiting any update.
I am also frustrated that the management have now given up on trying to support the share price. They appear to have taken the stance that value will out eventually but bear in mind, thirteen months ago NvS actually said well done to frustrated share holders for hanging on in there (29th July IC) The implication was you have done the hard part, the good times are almost here, at that time the share price was 3.8p
Fast forward thirteen months and we have had nothing in the way of a deal and the share price has fallen 13% in that time to 3.3p. If the management thought shareholders were frustrated then, I wonder how they think we are feeling now.
As I have said before I am not selling until we see a deal here but I do feel for investors who are fed up of waiting and would like to sell but would take heavy losses if they did.
Trickytree if you have held these shares for a few years and you only
"have occasional days of feeling doom and gloom"
I would suggest you are doing very well!
In the meantime keep singing the Arc anthem - Del Amitri - Nothing ever happens
Would NvS and Remy accept £200m for the whole of Arc?
With multiple targets on such a large area, I don't think so.
Even if they did, with 1,335,828,808 shares in issue (fully diluted) that is just shy of 15p a share.
I still think it is more likely to be a partial sale or a JV but it just shows how disconnected the current share price is.
Unfortunately the silence from the company as they continue to talk to potential suitors, makes them a very easy target for investors trying talk the price down by scaring people into selling.
Just my view but I don't think Institutional Investors will invest until they have something concrete in terms of a deal. Yes they will have to pay more for a stake but the risk will have gone.
Currently we are seeing relatively low volumes and it is just nervous Retail Investors selling, the fundamentals still remain the same and I think some will regret selling at these low prices.
I was thinking exactly the same thing, the assay results will take time but the drill cores will give a good indication of what they have found, if anything
I have said before that my holding in Arc is the largest I have ever had in an AIM share. Whilst I said that I had no intention of selling even one share, I also thought that I was holding enough and I wouldn’t buy more.
With the market cap now around £38m I changed my mind this morning adding another £5,000 worth of shares and averaging down in the process.
I’m still as frustrated as everyone else but I’m confident this will come good and see patience rewarded.
You have a very poor opinion of NvS's ability as a CEO
@Major-Tom
So you still think NvS divulged information to a retail investor a week ago, then sat on that information before finally releasing it to the market today?