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If nothing else it shows that an investor with a not inconsiderable amount of cash thinks Arc is a good investment at current levels.

Just a few points about the Equity swap

1. It is unusual for one to be done on a small cap stock

2. The quantities involved must be large. UBS would not bother unless the charges were going to be significant.

3. The buyer expects Arc to multi bag during the life of the contract.

4. It would be impossible for the buyer to purchase the equivalent amount of shares in the open market, as the share price would quickly spike to new levels.

Anglo spent very little in year one, so it isn't a massive assumption that in year two they will use multiple rigs at more than one site. If the buyer believes there is copper within the licence and Anglo will throw money at this year, then the gamble is they hit a substancial deposit of copper within the ES timescale.

Obviously a Tier 1 discovery may affect the Anglo share price but nothing like it would affect the Arc share price, hence why the contract is seen as attractive by the buyer.

Do not underestimate the significance of the LML being granted.

The general concensus is that they have large scale copper within the JV area.

The risky part was it was all on an Exploration Licence. The worry with an LEL is they are a “use it or lose it” licence and even if copper is discovered you cannot extract it without a Mining Licence.

As has been said this de risks the JV greatly as the roadmap is now laid out for the next 25 years.

With this announcement the value of the JV has increased and obviously so has Arc’s 20% share when they eventually sell it.

I think once this news has been digested and the Cheyeza assay results land we will see more interest in the shares.

I have said before that, in my opinion, at these levels Arc is a potential takeover target, with an LML in place that becomes even more likely. For not much money someone could get 20% of anything Anglo finds in that licence area for the next 25 years, not a bad gamble on such a large prospective licence area.

I’m not saying that a takeover would succeed at anything like these levels but if an approach is made, it would bring other potential suitors out into the open.

AIMO

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe this licence covers Cheyeza, Muswema and Lumbeta

Well spotted SeisNav that is a major move forward. The granting of an LML will de risk the project significantly and may be the catalyst for institutional investors to buy. An LML gives stability and long term continuity, things II's look for.

In case anyone is wondering we are still drilling in Zambia, I have just had confirmation from the company.

That is good as we are into the second half of December.

Provided Anglo are still sending cores off for testing, that means once we start seeing assay results they will continue for months to come.

Don't forget, they did drill last year a very deep hole that was very informative apparently.

Did we find out if they found any copper in that hole? No we didn't.

Were any cores sent for testing? We simply don't know because we weren't told anything

Over a year into the JV we are still waiting for the first Anglo produced assay results from Zambia

Just a couple of points

1. The RNS said " drilling is set to continue into the wet season."

During the IC they said it is raining already so technically they are drilling in the wet season now. How long that continues remains to be seen.

2. 4p is a figure I have plucked out of fresh air, as it is a substancial premium to the current share price. Any proposed takeover could be considerably higher than that, who knows.

3. As the share price continues to fall a takeover approach is more likely.

4. It is a democratic vote and even if an approach was made, if enough shareholders vote against it, it wouldn't happen.

My argument is, after the fundraise, we have a lot more shareholders who would settle for a lower settlement figure.

The next question is, would Arc shareholders vote in favour if that offer was 4p? Two years ago I would say no.

Times change, in March of this year the fund raise sold 200m shares at 1.8p. Each came with a free warrant exercisable at 3p.

At a price over 3p warrant holders could exercise their warrants and take a profit. The fund raise potentially gave 200m shareholders + 200m warrant holders,

presumably they would vote in favour of the offer as they would see an immediate profit.

It is clear that some LTH's are getting very fed up and want to see a return on their investment, would they sell? I don't know.

Are the Arc board worried about a hostile bid? With a share price this low and a market cap of only £21m they should be.

Some will see this as a negative post it isn't. Lets assume the next few holes in Zambia produce nothing. The rainy season kicks in and we then sit on our hands till August 2025 before Anglo start drilling again. It is now mid November and we have had no Zambian assay results back.

This would be replicated next year so we would be waiting until the end of 2025 before finding out if Anglo have found a major copper deposit.

A takeover offer would give this share a boost and anyone watching in the wings would have to make a counter offer if they were interested.

A hostile bid can come in for a company at any time, just as BHP did for Anglo six months ago.

It isn't about whether they own any shares, they just put in a cash offer for the company to the shareholders.

The price they offer is shown as a price per share and shareholders vote on it, yes or no.

An offer could come in for Arc at any time and as the share price gets to very low levels, as it is now, that is ever more likely.

Anglo are sure of these licences and they are convinced there is big copper here, the latest hole has them very excited.

If Anglo are confident of finding copper on our acreage, then surely other majors think this is an interesting area too.

Anyone acquiring Arc on the cheap gets 20% of all the copper Anglo subsequently find on this acreage and they get approximately a 6 year free carry.

Rewind to when the JV was signed and anyone making a bid for Arc would more than likely face opposition from Anglo.

If the 20% stake was going cheap Anglo would want to buy it.

That has now changed since BHP tried a hostile takeover of Anglo six months ago. Since then Anglo have been trying to cut costs and sell off interests to reduce debt.

They are still worried that BHP may come back after the 6 month period expires.

If a hostile takeover of Arc was attempted now, would Anglo bid? It would add nothing material to their balance sheet at the moment, so they might not bid.

From a timing point of view, anyone interested in acquiring Arc possibly without Anglo joining a bidding war, then this is probably the best time.

It is easy to say of course they would bid because they believe in this JV area but if their very survival as an independent major is in doubt, they wouldn't.

If we look at how committed Anglo are here, this year. The big question is, why only 1 rig?

Under Phase 1, which lasts 3 years 180 days, Anglo are committed to spending $24m over the 3.5 years.

We were told on the 7th August 2024 that drilling had commenced in Zambia, at that time they had about 4 months to drill.

With one of the most prospective areas in Africa, millions to spend, multiple targets and about 4 months to drill, how many rigs did Anglo deploy? ONE

Under the terms of an exploration licence you are obliged to keep working on the licence, otherwise the Ministry could cancel your licence.

If the JV had not been signed, Arc on its own would have drilled in Zambia this year. With limited funds it would have been only 1 rig.

The terms of the JV do not stipulate how much Anglo have to spend each year but they have to spend $24m over the three and a half years.

If Anglo were spreading the spend equally over the 3.5 years it would mean in the first year they would spend circa $7m.

How much have they actually spent this year I don't know but for reasons best known to Anglo it is nowhere near that figure.

Good post Kullybahia, that does makes sense

If I'm being honest during the IC I didn't think NvS was too bullish on these assays, he seemed to playing them down.

Perhaps just my perception, hope I'm wrong though.

I know this meeting is pure rumour at this stage but I believe it is happening.

During the IC NvS was asked about the rumour, he replied that he couldn't comment on the movements of the Anglo CEO.

He then immediately said, "but if he is going, that is extremely good news because it again underscores Anglo's interest in Zambia"

As soon as he said that I was convinced it is happening but obviously NvS can't say anything.

DW and HH will want something to come out of the meeting to get the press involved, it will probably be the signing of an MOU between the two parties.

8ead,

The simple reason why the share price isn't rising is institutional investors are not currently buying.

In my opinion there are a number of reasons for that

1. II's are very risk averse and would rather wait until the good news lands before buying, even if that then means paying a premium for the shares.

2. It could take Anglo a long time to find a big deposit, so they would rather invest elsewhere until any news lands.

3. Currently we only have an exploration licence over the JV area, that could be seen as a risk. Once a Large Scale Mining Licence running for 25 years is granted it would remove that risk and give continuity and stability to the JV licence areas.

In the meantime we only have small trades by retail investors and as this is taking a long time, some get nervous and sell. On top of that as NvS mentioned in the IC we have day traders who are trying to make a few bob by trading the share as it rises and falls.

So until we get a catalyst that kicks in institutional buying we will continue to see the share price around these levels.

However, that situation could change very quickly if the Botswana assays were very good, we officially see interest in the Botswana licence, Anglo hit big copper, the LML's are granted etc etc.

Any of the above would significantly increase the value of Arc and reduce the investment risk, at which time we should see institutional investor interest in the share.

The fundamentals are very strong here but because we are on the AIM market II's want it practically nailed on before they will commit their funds.

AIMO

Cloudbay

It has nothing to do with development.

A licence has a value based on its potential and what deposits have been found on it.

The more copper that is found on the JV acreage, the greater its value, regardless of whether it is developed anytime soon.

If the results come back with a good percentage of copper in the assays, the value of the JV increases.

The analysts would then give Arc a higher valuation on any broker notes produced.

If the analysts say the value of the companies assets are far greater than its current share valuation, it could attract buyers.

Just a point about yesterday's IC

Anglo are only interested in finding the big copper deposit, so they more or less brush aside the first hole at Cheyeza. For Arc investors any copper is important as it increases the value of the JV and Arc's share of it.

From the Arc January 2021 Investor Presentation

"Achieved some of the best intersections in the Zambian Copperbelt including: 18m grading 2.35% Cu and 39m grading 1.47% Cu"

The first hole in this campaign found "Anomalous copper mineralisation over a downhole thickness of around 45m was observed in the saprolite zone. Pending results from the laboratory, this hole demonstrates the potential to significantly expand the known oxide mineralisation at Cheyeza."

As this was the first hole drilled it should be in the first batch sent for assay testing and the results may not be that far away. Whilst the results may be of no significance to Anglo, depending obviously on the grades, it could be of significance to us.

Is anyone getting replies to their emails to the company?

I nearly always get a reply but my last four emails, no response.

Doh

Thanks, now I get it

Seisnav, I am struggling a bit with this. I can see you are saying all four are similar.

Is it possible to show some of our licence area in the same right hand format?

And if MMG in these negotiations are prepared to pay £25m for our licence (our current market cap), then perhaps we are currently a little undervalued.