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JG68

Yesterday’s aftermarket buys were the shorts increasing then by definition the million or so shares sold after the close today must be them decreasing, hence the metered rise today.

The shorts appear to be day trading for now?

Could see a substantial exit tomorrow, just my thoughts.

Https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/business/exclusive-petrofac-on-strategising-energy-diversification

I remember that article however a bid from where we are now would be unlikely to truly value the business going forward. Wood group is a prime example.

They rejected a price almost 100p north of where they are currently because the BOD believed it was too cheap.

Very similar business to PFC in many ways.

Also considering Asfari holds approximately 89 million shares, it’ll have to be a sweet offer.

I wonder what Asfari’s average is?

Clearview

I can laugh about my losses now, mostly crazy covid stocks.

One particularly springs to mind. RMS was a roller coaster, which I enjoyed enormously, I was up £120k and advised to sell but believed I was in a rocket ship?

The next day I lost 80k. Big numbers for me.

Novacyt was another but I got spanked on that one selling one morning through impatience only for the bugger to bounce severely at midday.

I only trade part time but have learnt a lot about myself over the past 10 years or so. The skin is thicker now.

Regarding PFC, it’s borderline a no brainer for me. Frustrating but a no brainer nonetheless.

If the BOD are being straight with us,

The debt will shrink, dividends will return etc.

The order book is filling up and looking at the energy sector, this is still in its infancy.

Ive been in and sometimes out of PFC for a couple of years now and remain optimistic about the medium term outcome.

The world needs energy without a doubt

Clearview is spot on hear in my opinion.

I’ve lost count of the times I’ve sold a loss only to watch it recover, usually within a day or two and on one occasion within an hour.

I’m done kicking myself for impatience, as Mr Buffet once said, “ the stock market is a device for moving money from the impatient to the patient.

I’ve never been so patient but am sticking to the view that it’s only a loss when you sell it. Equally it’s also only a profit when you sell, as our in-house shorters found out in March.

Given the turnaround by the business this year by PFC I am in shock that they’ve managed to get us back to March levels again.

They now have their chance to recover their losses.

Yesterdays buys after hours looked suspiciously like a short clearing after an uncharacteristic day of stagnation. Today is panning out it a very similar way so far!

I’ll be closely watching the short positions tonight and the after hrs trades.

Stay strong out there.

Janbo

I certainly do, this is agonizing, I’d even hint at manipulation.

So, they’ve conveniently held the all time bottom price all day, 5 minutes after the close 1 million shares are bought!

Must be nice to have that much influence on the SP

I couldn’t agree more, a business increasing its headcount from 8000 to 11000 is clearly growing at a serious rate.

If Astaris and Co are in this to make money, you would think that after the ADNOC contracts and the fitch rerate to stable B+ that this SP would have got a good head of steam. If they truly believed PFC was in trouble then they would have waited for the SP to climb before increasing their position. Instead they waited until it hit the 50’s. The naysayers will claim that II’s are selling but there is no evidence of any major holders decreasing.

The only reason I can fathom is that they are being subsidized to keep it down to make a low bid palatable.

I guess the real question is what is a reasonable bid.

After the conclusion of the SFO debacle the fund raise at 115p was successful so one would expect any bid would have to be north of that.

GLALTH

Could also be an olive branch from an otherwise silent BOD who are unable to speak!

Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/540666/petrofac-headcount/

You can sell if you want to.

If there is an offer looming, the management are legally bound to silence until a formal announcement is made, they also aren’t allowed to buy. Make your own mind up on that one???

I don’t think the shorts are burning.

I’ve been puzzling over the latest drop after the credit rating increase and ADNOC contracts.

I think the shorts have pounced on an opportunity and piled in to drive the SP down in order to get out and limit their losses from the TENET announcement day.

Their hand will show next week of course.

Trolls have been hard at work casting doom which has aided the shorts and unfortunately probably rinsed some PI’s.

Meanwhile PFC have been busy starting these new contracts that were only recently announced. As long as the business keeps doing the right thing, it’ll all come out in the wash.

Bright days ahead.

The buggers have increased again only this time the SP went up?

What am I missing?

Https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-thai-oil-outlook-to-stable-from-negative-affirms-at-a-tha-15-09-2023

I’m bored of the trolls talking nonsense and probably getting into the heads of some investors causing them to loose money.

Nobody is up on PFC after today’s all time low. It may go lower but suspect that’s the shorts sacrificing via auto bots.

I’m down heavily and fed up but not selling a carrot.

Can’t believe they’ve manipulated the SP back down here again. Roll on December update

In basic terms

Petrofac’s share of these contracts is over $8 billion.

Even at 5% margin the business stands to profit circa $400m and they have stated the margins they’re targeting are higher!

Also, this year is not over yet so there may be more awards yet to come.

All this and an Mcap of £280m

I’d suggest undervalued by some considerable margin.

I’d say you’ve missed something?

€13B joint venture with hitachi

$1.5B contract in Algeria

2 x over $600m contracts in the UAE

Recently increased credit rating

I could go on but suggest you’ve definitely missed something!

Beware the trolls.

It also states a minimum of 6 £1B contracts from 2023 through 2025

I’ve been reading the 2022 full year report.

The Tennet deal is for 2 contracts per annum. As it’s been approximately 7 months since the deal was signed, are we not due another any day soon?

Dark knight

My theory has potential however, it’s also possible that Astaris got burned in March when the Tennet contract was announced and they’ve pounced on an opportunity to trade out and minimize their losses. Saying that though, it does beg the question(why didn’t they increase at 80p)?