Member Info for slowlyslowly

You're out by a 0. The number of shares applied for that exceeded the size of the offer was 5.2bn

Good weekend Rich?

Feather, we've had no hint that the board are planning either, but could you explain the difference between a reverse split and a consolidation? (I always thought they were two names for the same thing, so I'd love to learn something here). Why is the prospect of one neutral, but the other bad news?

Why a shame? I assume you meant you'd have liked more. Sure, but that low allocation means the offer was hugely oversubscribed (see the posts earlier on today). That means the offer has nowhere near exhausted the demand for these.

Ha ha, cc! Deramping. You've caught me.

Well, we pedants of the world have to stick together, so let me point out that 603,984,429 shares were issued in the Offer under the Excess Application Facility.

So that means the shares that people applied for but did not get is 5,209,147,707.

Demand extremely strong indeed.

It means there were roughly 5bn shares applied for in the offer that were not successful, so strong was the demand.

5 billion.

Not all of those people will now proceed to buy on the open market, and some may well wait to see if the price drops nearer to the offer price, but regardless it still shows the demand out there for BOU.

That's exactly it. And they've now used up all those shares they can issue (save 15m!), which means no further placings without shareholder approval, and no further offers without shareholder approval too.

How would a consolidation harm things for us?

If all "local problems" have been resolved, we may well find that we're now in new territory with no further reason for news releases designed to suppress the price.

I got 10.39% of the excess I applied for.

If that's across the board, then I make the number of shares applied for 10.5bn, with an offer looking to raise 5.3bn. So that's almost exactly double oversubscribed

Apart from briefly testing it on Tuesday, 0.25 seems to be holding as support

I apologise. I seem to have got mixed up. I meant to name the second account in my example "Mr Jekel", which was probably obvious but I correct it in case anyone didn't quite follow as a result.

Also, a typo in that closing quotation: "My name is Rodney" (not "if")

As you were.

The rules of this forum only allow people to have one account. But I believe there are some people who have two, depending on when they wish to ramp or deramp.

So, someone might have one account they log into for ramping, when they want to be positive about a share. DrHyde would be a good moniker.

Then they have another when they wish to deramp. MrHyde perhaps.

It's unlikely a casual reader would suspect this is going on. But the best way to throw people off the scent is to make sure that when MrHyde's rants against the company target attack well known rampers, they include DrHyde amongst the desperate ones.

I shall finish with an Only Fools and Horses quotation: "My name if Rodney". A classic sitcom from 1982, that was.

Conclusion: There will be some sells tomorrow, as people look for quick profit. But there will also be some buys as people look for cheap shares.

If you're hoping to buy on the drop, don't wait too long for bottom to come in. There may be a big sell-off, giving you the chance to get in even cheaper. Or, ...: It may bounce sooner than you think, and these buy-pressures may mean the chance to buy cheaply is short-lived.

Similarly, if you're looking to sell to bag that profit, you may see the price falling initially and be tempted to take what profits you can. By all means, go ahead. But it may also be that the profit doesn't keep going down, and you may be far better to hold for gold.

Needless to say: All my own opinion. I may be totally wrong. DYOR. Etc.

GLA

Second prediction: News, and a price rise

There have been some big volumes the past few days and several of us have been expecting TR1s.

It may well be that TR1s have been timed for release tomorrow rather than, say, today for maximum inoculation against a drop on the day the offer shares hit the open market. Neither the Board nor Peterhouse have any reason to want this to do anything other than rise.

Issuing a TR1 tomorrow would also avoid having to issue one today and then another the very next day because the proportional holdings all change (as Antos had to do after the last placing, when his holding dropped from 21% to 14%).

First prediction: Lots of share buying and a price rise.

We all know some people may be waiting for tomorrow to sell their offer shares that exceed what they want to hold long-term.

There may be others who want to top up for the long term. The offer gave the cheapest way to do this, so they're waiting for tomorrow to find out what they get. Then they can work out what to buy on the open market at a higher price.

Only someone predisposed to take a negative view would assume everyone's first action at 8am will be to sell.

Think about it for a moment. There are two types of people who held BOU at the time of the offer announcement.

1. Short-term traders. They will see the offer as a chance to short-term profit. Chances are they'll already have sold roughly equivalent to what they applied for at the 0.03 level. They may rush to sell their new shares, except that the profit over 0.0125 won't be high and they may equally well wait to see if the initial sell is reversed.

2. Long-term holders. Their reason to buy into the offer is: "Oh good - I can't believe I can pick more up this cheaply." They won't sell at 0.018, as it defeats the reason they bought the extra. But if it drops to that kind of level, it's more likely to trigger another reaction of "Wow, even more at this kind of price".

So there will be selling. But there will also be buying. And by the end of the day the buying may well be in the ascendancy.

OK, here are two things I think may well happen tomorrow, that give a different angle from what others have said.

Needless to say, I may be completely wrong!

truly sorry to hear that

We might get a blue finish yet. It worked, Havoc!!

The genie was napping this time though - a snappier response would be good the next time he's summoned.

Welcome to the madhouse, Nick.
And to the suspense of waiting to see whether what lots of us think will happen to this shell actually will!