Member Info for slowlyslowly

Hole A2-2 took exactly 4 weeks to get to 800m, so that's 200m a week.

27th September is 3 weeks ago exactly. So I estimate they're about 600m.

550-600 is where the other holes for interesting. This won't be exactly the same, but it seems we should hopefully strike something of interest within the next week.

It's not showing on this website yet, but if you check other RNS websites you'll see it. They've made 3 very exciting hires in Botswana, have nearly finished drilling hole A2-2 (which went down at nearly a perfect angle), and then have already got roadway and support pads in place to transport and set up in area B, which is now part of some more longstanding magnetic anomalies in the area. All very encouraging stuff.

KSZ and KCB are not the same place

Here's a detail that wasn't in the RNS or the interview following it.

https://twitter.com/KavangoRes/status/1437760199658459143

"We plan to share data from these core with parties interested in hunting for major #copper/#nickel sulphide deposits in the #KSZ"

So, question: Which parties might those be?

Sorry, *can't easily be transferred*, not *can*.

That's a private company?

Do the shares have value? The value of any share holding is what someone else is prepared to buy them for. With a listed share, you can just look to the current bid price in the market. With an unlisted share, you can still sell them (so they still have value), but there's no easy market where you can look up the price. You'd have to find yourself a buyer, and then you'd discover what their worth. Or hold them in the hope they list via an IPO or RTO.

Can you do anything with them? Assuming they're not in CREST, they can be easily transferred from one broker to another. Some brokers might transfer them in manually, but it sounds like your new one won't. So you either leave that one holding with the old broker, or you ask the old broker about transferring them out of their nominee system and getting the shares materialised so that they send you a paper share certificate.

Good luck.

It bounced with nobody selling below 4.7p. So, just possibly, someone sitting on some 4.5p warrants chose to use the volume from good news to sell some of the related stock.

Agree with all of that, apart from the wishes of a nomad (this is main market). Well put

Google shows the most recent trade price. If a trade is printed late, the price will show a jump wrongly to the price from an hour or two ago, until a trade prints in real time to bring it back

@Swanny27 - I'm not inside on anything. I don't know AS at all. I don't have accounts at any brokerage houses. But I do have email alerts set up to let me know if there's an RNS in any stocks I hold or am researching. So I got an email at 5pm yesterday to tell me of the retail offer, already knew the issue was below the level where I'd buy more, so I logged into Primary Bid and applied for some. Sure, people can still miss out as sometimes these things need a rapid response. But using Primary Bid and RNS is a lot more "in the open" than a company asking their broker to ring people they have contact with. But glad you were able to pick some up in the market at basically the same price. All's well that ends well. I still think it's good the company wanted to give the little guy and gal a proper chance to take part.

The feedback from the first attempt to get authorisation to issue new shares was that they needed to give existing holders the chance to be included in future placings. Al referred to this in the RNS last night.

It's good to see that done properly, not just a token nod. You often get it where a company raises £10m from the big boys using their broker, and then throws a £1m bone to their retail investors via PrimaryBid. This time, we had £4m in total, split exactly £2m / £2m insti and retail. And the retail offer was over-subscribed, raising the £2m target in just 2 hours.

That shows both retail's significant appetite for TERN at this price, which means the placing price should be an absolute floor going forwards, and that the company properly included retail holders as partners in a way we haven't seen before.

Kavango starts 23 minutes in

Go to the Kavango website, hover over "Investor Relations" in the menu bar, choose "Notices and News Releases". It's there dated 28th May 2021.

Thanks, fbrj.

Admitted to the main market 31st July 2018, so nearly 3 years ago. Shares in issue at the time was 134,169,996. (Interestingly, I've only just noticed that the first TR1 to be issued was a notifiable holding by Paul Johnson. Striking, given where this went later - he saw the opportunity from the outset).

Currently there are 364m, so yes about treble. Before taking my starter position I read every RNS issued since admission, and I think they've always sought to be careful how they do it. All micro cap explorers need to raise funds - it's why they come to market. But I don't think they've ever taken the mick out of existing holders in the way they've done it. It's easy to criticise warrants being attached to a placing, but that's the sweetener that encourages new investment in the primary market rather than people building a position on the open market. Crucially, though, that bank of warrants has given them a steady cashflow as people have exercised into the rising share price. So arguably including warrants in one placing gets more value out of that, stemming the need for further placings so soon.

I first bought into Kavango when it was 1.2p. (So I missed the sub-1p really low entry point. Too busy reading and getting to know the company before starting a position).
Bought move at 3.5p, taking my average to 2p.
Bought more in the open market today at 5.9p, taking my average to 3p.

IMO the price keeps moving to reflect what's known. In the early days, when I first bought, I could see it was an excellent management team, and there were some encouraging results from the first set of drilling they did, but they only had a few licences and the risks it might come to nothing were real. So the super low price reflected the high binary risk.

By the time it hit 3.5p the JV with Power was in place, as was LVR JV, AEM surveys were done and the first TDEM results were coming back, and we had Holwell and Prendergast's comparative reports were written. The real potential was becoming clear. Still a lot of risks in an early-stage explorer, but things were looking a lot more like they could hit something of real value. 3.5p is higher than 1.2p, but appropriately prices in the risk coming down. Time to average up.

The 8,200 Siemens reading is just extraordinary, and the strong support for the placing at 5.5p shows that the current share price has wide market support. So another average-up seemed a good idea. I personally don't think it will drop from here back to the placing price. Apart from those who took the placing, this is the cheapest entry we get.

It's still an early stage explorer, with no drill cores to show to the majors. But you have to remember three things.

1. The TDEM data is extremely strong. They've used their funds wisely by surveying where to drill rather than going in blind. That's working smart rather than (or, as well as, hard).
2. The team is very strong. Ben has brought a fresh level of energy and brilliant comms to this company. They've shown respect for shareholders in the way they went about the raise over this weekend. Directors and management have skin in the game. Mike Moles is also a very competent and enthusiastic geologist, who hasn't been fronted in interviews as much recently, but is pat of the strong team. Gumbo too. Get the right people together, things can happen.
3. They have several areas of exploration. There's the KSZ gabbros, the Ditau carbonatite rare-earth search, and several different licence areas in the KCB (outright, JV and farmed in). Even if one of these turns out to yield nothing, they have more than one string to their bow. They only need one economic discovery, and this is multiples higher IMO.

So I think the investment case is very strong, and continues to get stronger with each update.

Cheers, Albert.

I agree about Equitory.

But back to N+G: That was my point exactly. Once we've dismissed the idea that they're in this for the shortest term profit (hold for 5 minutes or half a London session), it becomes pointless asking whether they're in it for the medium or long term. At that point, they're like any other long-term holder who's invested based on the long-term investment case here.

Of course, they're all in it for profit.

But it's not a zero-sum game. Find a business model that properly rewards artists, you find a business model that is sustainable and will also properly profit the companies who make the music available to consumers.

As you say, the question is whether they're after a long-term or short-term profit. The shortest-term profit is a quick 7% flip. Without warrants, and with what we know of N+G, that seems unlikely as I argued in my OP. If they're in it for a profit, they still achieve that by investing at these lows and riding the share price up. Whether they sell mid-term (few months) or longer term - well, that's just like any other large institutional holder. There's an overhang created by the fact they have to sell some day.

Rikki - I believe they knew exactly what they were doing. As I say, for short-term finance, this is an excellent setup. So tailored for what we need, they may well have planned all this during that suspension period.

As for N+G waiting until the end of June to convert: We don't know their plans. They have the full 12 months of the facility to convert, and can do it whenever they wish. I do know that they don't get to ring the London Stock Exchange and ask for the share price to be 2p on a certain date so that they can come in at 1.86p. Share prices are driven by supply and demand, and by lots of other factors. They will judge their entry points. Like the rest of us, they can wait hoping for a lower entry, knowing they may miss the entry as the price roars higher or the company repays the loan. Or they can convert now, knowing they may miss a lower entry later. At only 7% discount, with no indication their conversion leads to selling, I'm not too worried when they do it.

2. The effect of the CLN terms on Napster

Napster needed short-term finance to get a new app released, to integrate the two former businesses, and to integrate the Melody and Napster branded services into one offering. What were their options for such finance?

(i) Place new shares. Typically, the brokerage house would charge about 5% arrangement fee, so they'd get £7.6m by placing £8m worth of shares. AIM placings can come at a deep discount. 10% is not uncommon. The result: Existing holders get heavily diluted.
(ii) Loan. They already have loan facilities in place, but taking out additional loans would probably be at a substantial rate of interest. It also formally increases the debt / asset ratio of the company.
(iii) The CLN plan we have.

The plan we have is not unlike (i) - new shares are issued at a discount to the current price to finance the company. However the discount is only 7%, which is much better than it could have been. The new shares go not to private investors who flip their shares for a quick profit, only to keep their warrants that create a further overhang to be sold into. Rather, they go to an institutional investor who's indicated they're a long-term supporter of the business. So it's like the very best of placings - sticky hands, low discount. What's more, if the company's cashflow increases to the point where they can repay the loan sooner, they have the option to do that, so the number of shares issued at 7% dilution is only as large as they actually need it to be, rather than placing new shares now for the full amount they may need.

The plan we have is also not unlike (ii) - tranches of a loan are made, under the initial terms at no more than 3 weekly intervals. Only there's the option for the holder to convert that loan to stock at favourable terms, so the size of the company's loan facility need not stay large.

All in all - they needed short-term finance to get them from the loss-making MVR days to the sunnier days ahead offering an integrated MVR-NAPS offering to a growing range of telcos etc - the largest online music library, coupled with immersive VR bringing live music into people's homes. Given they needed that, it seems to me they've found the ideal partner and the ideal way to fund it.

The fact that, technically, this is via a financial instrument known as a "convertible loan note" should not mean we conclude we're now in a death spiral. Not all CLNs are created equal. This package, is in fact, ideally suited for Napster at this point in its deep turn-around.

OK, provocative title.

CLNs are often nicknamed "death spiral" finance. That's because the mantra "they can only sell once" no longer applies when there are CLNs issued. If "the seller" is someone converting a loan into stock to sell, as long as they have more loan, they can get more stock to sell, so any rise gets sold into.

But not all CLNs are equal. Let's look at this package. It's a one-year loan facility, to be issued in tranches (now) between now and the end of June. Nice and Green can, at any time, convert that loan into shares at 7% discount. Or they can hold and it gets repaid at maturity. Unless the company repays first at 3% premium (thus searing potential for future conversions, saving 4%). There's no interest on the loan. Arrangement fee: 5%.

1. Nice and Green's intentions.

Why did they enter this deal? 3 options.

(i) To convert the loan to stock, to sell, to make a quick 7%.
(ii) To hold the loan as cash, to maturity, to profit from the arrangement fee.
(iii) To convert the loan to stock, to hold, as a way to invest in the business.

I believe it's (iii) because of two things.

(a) Look at their website and the way they operate. They research and hand-pick which businesses to invest in carefully. They've mostly invested in pharmas, with a few tech and other sectors. There are other CLN lending firms in the City that are a lender of last resort. No need to name names, but when they rock up you know it's bad news. Lending to businesses who can't get credit is just an easy way to make a few quid. That's not the flavour of N+G, from their publicly available material. You don't need to choose businesses with care if you're going to lend for a quick flip. All you need is a liquid market. So it seems they're not here for (i).
(b) The RNS on 14th April said this: "We are a long-term supporter of the business whose interests are fully aligned to the shareholder community and are genuinely excited about the growth opportunity which Napster affords us". That's not a legal undertaking that they'll convert and hold, but we'd not expect that. It's the closest they can come in a quotation at the bottom of an RNS. It clearly states their intentions.