Member Info for slowlyslowly

Up until 3rd March, your posts on KEFI were positive, arguing for a long-term hold, and criticising those who only post negatively (some of whom still do).
From 10th March, all your posts have been negative, concluding that it's going back below 1p, and no rise will last.

What happened between 03/03 and 10/03 to change your mind?

Precisely. Ethiopia is big, and isn't anywhere near priced in on its own. Saudi has the potential to be bigger, and the company is currently being priced solely on sentiment around the Ethiopian end of things.

Jibal is key. It's production ready, and if that can get into production then KEFI has a steady cashflow to help develop the others.

And, as you say, Saudi wants to open up its economy to more than oil, and ours is exactly the kind of thing they want to encourage others with.

@UTB - I'm glad to see someone recognise the value of the Saudi assets. They are formidable, and in my opinion have not been priced in at all by the market. Each time we've had drill results / PEA from Saudi, the share price hasn't moved. The reason, IMO, is that the market is waiting for the financial close for the Tulu Kapi investment. Until that happens, it's as if people are suspending judgement on the company as a whole, even on good news coming from much further north.

To answer your question, though, Tulu Kapi is huge. Look at the company presentation on their website to see the value of the gold in the ground. Look at the tables in recent RNS on how different gold prices affects the value of the asset to Kefi. The company now holds a far larger percentage of Tulu Kapi; when they moved from using ANS to fund the mine to using the current consortium, they took the opportunity to come on board themselves for more. It's also a political project for the Ethiopian government. They are wanting to send the signal abroad that Ethiopia is now open to foreign investment, and they've explicitly said that Tulu Kapi is the showcase for this. So, from a government point of view, it must not be allowed to fail. When TKGP gets into production, it will be the single largest export from Ethiopia. Lastly, all the calculations on TK have been based on what's accessible near surface, (the gold at depth hasn't been included at all) - there's more than the figures show. They also now hold exploration licences for the area around TKGP, expecting to find yet more gold by looking near to what they've already got.

So just looking at Tulu Kapi, it's huge, and the current market cap doesn't begin to reflect that. Add in Saudi, which the market hasn't done, and it's even bigger

I first bought this in November 2019. I'll sell some on the way up to take some risk off, but fully intend to still be holding this when the gold starts to pour and the dividends begin. I think it's got a long way to run.

One of the things I liked about that was that they have $7.6m cash, and no debt, after concluding this deal. So they didn't need an extra £500k from retail investors - they'd more than funded their purchase from Orion, with cash left over for future opportunities. So giving retail the chance to take part like that shows that (unlike lots of AIM companies) they're aware we exist and want to make sure we get the chance to join in things.

They closed it two hours early, which I think meant 9am rather than the planned 11am.

Looks like someone breaking up a large buy order into chunks - we've had several buys at 250k shares go through, 450k, 500k - as well as possibly one-off buys of fairly large size but an odd number.

Just had a delayed print of a little under 3m shares too from an hour ago, which would have been a buy at that price and time.

Indeed, and today is just the start

"The Company is in advanced legals on a significant pipeline of assets to allow for an efficient deployment of its IPO capital, with further acquisition announcements expected to be made in short order."

The RNS isn't showing on LSE yet, but you'll find it on other RNS sites. They released just after the open.

Agreed - surely they wouldn't equip themselves a manufacturing facility of the drug is at the stage where that's what they're going to need to do in the near future. Note also their comments about the importance of designing for manufacture at scale from day 1. They're not aiming to do a small trial run here.

Agreed - surely they wouldn't equip themselves a manufacturing facility of the drug is at the stage where that's what they're going to need to do in the near future. Note also their comments about the importance of designing for manufacture at scale from day 1. They're not aiming to do a small trial run here.

Wow, James, that's a good report from Fox-Davies that was RNSd this morning. Thanks for bringing it here.

I still need to go and read it, but looks impressive. They are the newly appointed broker with O+G merger experience in Africa, so this is the investment case they'd make to large corporates looking to invest into the ADME story. (They still have their old broker for retail mugs like us). Good to see why they took on the company, and what they see here.

17p. Phew!

Isn't it EER taking the 25m extra shares (I've not checked your calculation for the 25m, but assume it's correct). The RNS doesn't say that the 25% will be paid for by $3m in cash, $2m of which is to be raised by placing new shares. It says that the payment for the 25% will be $2m worth of shares (priced at 7p), and $1m in cash. So EER get shares in ADME in return for relinquishing 25% of their share of Aje, and are happy that they're getting a good deal if those shares are priced at 7p.

And as for the other 75%, does the RNS actually say that EER are selling the other 75%? If not, we may assume that they're reducing their share by 25%, and keeping the other 75%.

RSI had spiked up to 75 when the sp was touching 4p. But it's now back to exactly 50. Like you said.
And someone is buying the dips. 500k shares have just been bought at full ask of 3.5p, which is more than the total number of shares sold throughout the rest of the day so far.

>> Will we list immediately on news or will there need to be a wait for an EGM

AIM Rules are clear - we are suspended until the reason for the suspension no longer applies. The reason is that an RTO has not been completed within 6 months of becoming a shell. So we unsuspend only when an RTO has been completed.

We can do nothing but wait, folks, frustrating as that is. Speculating won't make things happen faster, but could at worst put a spanner in the works.

>> does anyone on this board have an idea of the value of that level of production?

Yes

We've been told that production costs are largely fixed - that's to say it doesn't cost much more as the amount produced goes up.
The 2018-19 FY results show a net sales price of $1812 per tonne of concentrate.
We know that they break even if they produce 110 tonnes per month = 1320 tonnes per year.
So 10,000 tonnes = 8,680 tonnes more than it costs to break even.
Assume for a moment that it costs the same to produce 10,000 tonnes as it does to produce 1,320 tonnes. We know that's not going to be quite the case, but we also know that the cost of those extra tonnes is a lot less than the cost of those first 1,320 tonnes.
That makes the 8,680 tonnes worth 8,680 x $1,812 = $15.7m = £12.1m in profit
380m shares in issue, so that's earnings of 3.2p per share.
At a PE of 5 that would value RBW at 16p, 4x the current sp.
That's based on Kiyenzi alone.

Or this one:

"For PGEs, almost all the reported production and identified resources are associated with deposits in three geologic features—the Bushveld Complex, which is a layered mafic-to-ultramafic intrusion in South Africa; the Great Dyke, which is a layered mafic-to-ultramafic intrusion in Zimbabwe; and sill-like intrusions associated with flood basalts in the Noril’sk-Talnakh area of Russia." (Source: https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/pp1802N)

So we know about Russia from companies like Eurasia Mining. But only two other known countries with large reserves of platinum group deposits, one of which is where RBW has just picked up new permits.

As I say, just imagine if it "so happens" that they find more than rare earths in the ground there.

Read this:

https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20105090Q

Yes, very low cost.

Here is George Bennett in his own words (Proactive interview, dated 25 Nov last year)

"We've managed to peg 10 mining areas, or 10 lease areas, in Zimbabwe. We own 100% of these exploration permits. We've picked them up just for the cost of the permits. So very little money, we didn't have to pay anything for them apart from the permitting fees. Importantly the one area we pegged Gungwa, in 2002 the United States Geological Society (USGS) announced in one of their reports that they believed that area has potential to hold several thousand ppm of cerium and lanthanum, so we think it's a good start."

Now just imagine if we get an RNS saying they've found evidence of platinum group metals in one of the Zimbabwe license areas.

True, patch6, but remember that the 1m were sells. If enough of those came from a single seller, it would be hard for them to have dumped that many without crossing a percentage point threshold.