Member Info for slowlyslowly

Thanks , Ella, you've just explained it clearly, with the POW component.

And, BCB, yes, I know the share price drop was nothing to do with Molopo, but with people misunderstanding the drill results at KSZ where 10k Siemens turned out to be an average of 16k and 2.5k.

It's water under the bridge now, but did anyone get their heads around the percentages?

The bit that was easy to notice was the fact that we were looking to acquire 100% of KKME, not the 85.23% originally envisaged.

But the other change was that, originally, we were told that KKME had 100% of the Molopo Farms Project, but then in the revised deal we were told that KKME had a 60% interest.

So we were taking a higher stake (all) of a company that no longer holds the whole MFP but only holds 60% of it.

Why the drop from 100% to 60%?

Been out enjoying the weather, but it's colouded over, so it's time to come in and reply. I don't come to these boards to pick a fight (unlike some), so I feel no compulsion to have to "win" an argument.

Yes, if you see it in terms of averages, and money that was ever paid in to buy Kavango shares, then I get your point.

But if you look at the cash that's ever been put on risk ...:

Say someone has £5,500 to invest.
At the placing, they take 100k shares at 5.5p.
The price hits 12p. They sell their 100k shares for £12k.
From the £12k, they keep £3,500 and use the other £8,500 to exercise 100k warrants.
This gives them 100k shares, which they sell - as near as immediately as settlement times allow - for £12k.
They've then got £15,500 in cash (£3,500 + £12,000), having initially invested £5,500. Net profit: £10k.
At no point have they had more than their initial £5,500 investment riding on the success of KAV. The most they'd lose is £5,500 (if everything collapsed before they sold their initial shares), or £2,000 (if everything collapsed after they'd used all but £3,500 to exercise their warrants).

If, on the other hand, Mr £5,500 bought shares at 5p in the market, they'd get 110k shares. They could sell those at 12p for £13,200. Net profit: £7,700.

Hope it's still sunny where you are. ATB to you too.

Thanks for engaging, fbrj

I was assuming that someone who took the placing simply sat on their warrants, until the share price reached their desired target, at which point they sell their shares, and exercise their warrants instantly selling the resulting shares.

So they haven't been set on an average of 7p waiting for the right sell price, with twice the cash tied up. They've been sat on an average of 5.5p, waiting for the chance to sell and to make an instant profit on the warrants. As long as their cashflow lets them exercise the warrants, losing access to that cash until the resulting shares settle, it works.

Still think I've got my sums wrong? If so, do explain further. :-)

I wonder if some of the negative, critical chat on here (and on Twitter) comes from people who took part in the placing last July. I didn't take any, although I did talk to Ben over that weekend about it. Ben worked really hard ringing and emailing around private investors he'd been in contact with. He didn't want the placing only to go to the usual suspects who take (and flip) lots of placings. He wanted to give loyal PI a chance to be involved. That takes up his time to do that.

You'll recall the placing was at 5.5p, with warrants at 8.5p. At the time, that was a good price. The share price had risen steadily from the 2p/3p level up to just over 6p. So a 10%-ish discount offered a good entry. Not long after, the price dropped back to the 5.5p to 6p range, and has spent quite a while below the 5.5p placing level.

Because the placing was taken by lots of smaller holders, that's (a) more, (b) less-experienced at placings - holders who took a large chunk at 5.5p. I don't know what timescale they expected a return on that investment. Quite possibly people were looking for 8-10p over the following few months. It would be quite understandable for there to be a clamour from people wishing they'd bought in the market at 5p instead.

A few things to say to people in this position.
1. By investing in the primary capital market in this way, you helped KAV to be the well-funded entity it is today. If everyone had held off, hoping to build that kind of size in the secondary market, they wouldn't have the resources to pursue this drilling / survey programme.
2. You still have the warrants. If we hit a big discovery, I expect the share price to be and stay in double-figures. Yes, you could have had a lower entry. But, if this works out, the warrants mean your profits will be better than they would have been if you'd just bought at 5p. [Say it hits 12p. For every share you took in the placing at 5.5p you get 6.5p profit from the share and 3.5p from each warrant. Warrants were 1-1. So that's 10p profit per share. If you bought at 5p in the secondary market, you'd only have got 7p profit per share. Even if the price only hits 10p, you get 4.5p + 1.5p = 6p profit, compared to 5p]
3. It so happens that the placing was at the optimum time. Yes, short-term, that means you're underwater. But, long-term, that means they raised the maximum working capital for the minimum dilution, which keeps down that all important "shares in issue" that has been discussed here today. (I don't believe Ben did the placing expecting the price then to drop; he respects rather than uses private investors, it seems to me.)

At the end of the day, this is an early-stage explorer, and any investment here is a risk. However and at whatever level you invest, if this fails you lose out. But by investing at placing time, you've put your risk to work to help this succeed, and your share of the profits will be the greater for it.

See you on the other side

No doubt all will become clear soon enough, Gazzy.

"where has the cash to buy that stake come from?"

As of the last results, ADVT has cash of just over £129m.

Look at ADVT

You could transfer your holding away to a platform (HL, II, IG) that will let you hold NAPS after delisting, and will hold your unlisted NM shares until such time as they (if they) list on the Nasdaq.

Also, remember the chart in this tweet? https://twitter.com/KavangoRes/status/1415600788106252290

Fresh water is in the 0.1s and 1s of Siemens
Saline water is in the 10s of Siemens

I realise the down-hole EM is a different thing, but the 8,200 Siemens readout is in a different place.

Thank you, Bridgedogg1 - reading those two RNS again, I believe that's right. A refreshing change to come on these boards and learn something simple and factual. Appreciate it

It's not just that we probably need the Tulu Kapi funding to go ahead before the share price will hold at the required 3p level. The first tranche of Harry's bonus is explicitly dependent on (i) financial close for TK, and (ii) the share price closing above 3p for 5 consecutive days. Even if we held 3p without TK finance, the bonus would not be triggered

"A placing would be Harry admitting defeat on the financing and not being able to get the share price to 3p by the end of December to secure his bonus. "

No to the first half of that. The financing was always at project level. Kefi Plc needs funds for working capital and to develop Hawiah. The only defeat would be that a placing would need to be at a lower price because we haven't had the uplift of getting TKGP signed off. But Kefi's funding was always distinct from Tulu Kapi's funding.

Yes to the second half of that, but I think Harry must already be suspecting he's unlikely to get the share price to hold above 3p for a week this calendar year. It could yet happen, if everything came together, but it would be the delays in Ethiopia not any placing as such that triggered missing this milestone.

Ben is CEO now.

I know what you mean, but we are actually shareholders. It's just that those shares aren't tradeable. Whatever happens to the company in the near or medium future, we're on board by virtue of owning those shares.

Here's my guess.

We've just had two very similar meetings for Tiziana. Shareholders needed to vote for a reorganisation, and then in a legally distinct meeting agree to petition the court to approve a scheme to change the domicile to from UK to Bermuda. This had to be done before Tiziana could list on the Nasdaq in its own right, and not just as an OTC listing for a foreign company.

It's poor they've not sent out a circular to accompany the meeting proposals, but we've all been wondering why the Accustem shares we've got are yet to be admitted to trading. Check Companies House: Accustem Sciences Ltd is registered at 9th Floor 107 Cheapside, London, United Kingdom, EC2V 6DN (company number 12647178). If a UK domicile prevented Tiziana from listing its shares on Nasdaq, the same will be true for Accustem. Then, hey presto, we get voting proposals for meetings that are exactly parallel for what we had to approve for Tiziana to solve exactly this problem.

I'm hopeful the company will upload a circular to their website before the voting deadline to explain everything. But, in the absence of that, this seems to me a sufficiently likely explanation that I'd suggest people vote "yes" to all the resolutions. The wait has been painful, but there's no point cutting off your nose to spite yourself.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tlsa/press-releases

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tlsa/real-time

Tomorrow, this opens on the Nasdaq. A new day, and a new era. But I guess this chat section will fade as the place to discuss Tiziana Life Sciences. It's been a blast. GLA.