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I agree - There's a recovery to be had here.
Even if it's based on pure bullocks and speculation - many a bagger built on hot air.
If the markets were better and the spread was a little tighter, we'd only be 93% down.
Yes, that's much better...
I have been on these BB's for some time and I've seen shares suddenly being battered by numerous new posters who seem to be working in tandem, slating every aspect of the company and generally spreading doubt.
Most people seem to say these people are shorters but I don't see many people being short at this price. Maybe they were at 4p.
I would say that in my experience, this is always about the acquisition of cheap shares.
I can't remember a time when the share being battered hasn't risen drastically after the period of bashing.
Something is afoot here. You can be sure of that.
Just shown up after hours.
I can't imagine someone has been working a sale at the bottom price.
It's an oil discovery Jim, but not as we know it.
Bit of an odd one here really - the SP is seeing the company as a bombed out shell, with little beyond cash.
Yet, there is an oil discovery, which may well be commercial for someone, even if it's on the basis of a sale or asset swap.
Clearly this is nothing like the find LP promised, yet it would seem likely that it is something of some value beyond that which the current SP suggests.
Difficult to now if/how/when this might be realised - I'd guess we'll know more in a couple of days.
Please stop re posting that.
Its of no use to anyone.
I'd say that's the optimistic case!!!
Fair chance of a decent bounce but I don't think we'll see anything like 10p unless we get one of those once in a lifetime happenings.
That with every drilling disappointment I've ever seen, the market has overshot the drop significantly.
Not much point operating a market if it doesn't, when you think about it.
It's an odd one for sure.
10m BOE net to ADV would see them at 3-4p - Makes you wonder what COS LP would attribute to that scenario at this stage...
I would offer my thoughts at this time. Make of them what you will.
Clearly there is/was an issue with siezmic interpretation which as yet has not been fully resolved or understood. This uncertainty now seems to make LP's overwhelming optimistic pre-drill prognosis look foolish at best. At worst, it was dishonest.
This said, it may be a case of defining success and indeed understanding what the 95% COS actually referred to - If it was an expectation of encountering movable oil in commercial quantities, then, in all likelihood, it would seem that the drill sits with the 95% success range, rather than the apparent 5% failure case. I don't think there's any doubt that LP stated with some clarity that the 95% COS referred to the larger quantities, although it now appears he was ill-advised to do so.
This said, the drill hasn't been plugged and abandoned. It isn't a duster and there's clearly something to quantify down there, even if it is at a significantly reduced level to that promised pre-drill.
Commercially recoverable oil, in quantities which may well prove to be of significant value to the company, may well prove to be the outcome, after the initial analysis - I am of a mind that analysis is most likely all we have left to do and there is a very realistic chance that it isn't as bad as the market suggests this morning, which in turn means there seems to be a very realistic chance of a recovery in the SP, to some level at least.
I understand that they haven't said they have ceased drilling, albeit, there would seem to be little merit in going significantly beyond the intended target depth, unless the seizmic issue can be reinterpreted to give further guidance which supports such an action.
My best guess is some recovery from here but to what level and in what timescale, I do not know.
Commercial due diligence on two other projects.
All sounding pretty sweet here I think.
And so speaks the voice of (a very disgruntled) nation...
Than a ripple in a pond.
MM's stirring the pot.
Let's get on with it...
I'm just expecting a bag...
That anyone who's in this up until this stage is most likely to stick with it.
People buy shares like this for the drill and I'd say anyone with experience of O&G development would be quite comfortable with a delay of a few days, given some of the huge disappointments that have been delivered by some companies over the years.
We might see some selling over the next few days - It's in the MM's interest to stir the tank after all but I'd say any drop must simply be a buying opportunity at this stage.
Let's get them fingers crossed and await a happy Xmas...
This morning fellas.
Keep up the good work.
There will be much in the way of revelations from tonight's gig.
Most likely will be the implication that the rig is to arrive and spud "imminently"
Which we can take to mean an O&G exploration "how long's a piece of string" kind of imminently.
When a 2m buy shows up.
It's only me and I know absolutely nothing.