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All that's required here is an update on the potential reserves being targeted (long held to be more substantial and accessible than the figures mentioned in any Zephyr RNS) and news that the drill bit is spinning on the appraisal.
10p+ will come and go as an when these two things happen. Both seem fairly inevitable, particularly given the historical figures quoted by Idiens.
I don't think it's unreasonable to anticipate 100% uplift during the drill, just depends where it is beforehand really...
Even in his understated way, he suggests production on two fronts within months, reserves upgrades across numerous plays, further exploration and development and the company being, fully funded all the way.
Doesn't get much better than this boys.
Secured near term cash flow and funding for multiple wells in the near/medium term.
I would expect that the BOD are already sure what's down there and already have a drilling schedule half worked out which can take this from a company with potential production assets, to a producer, with North of a billion dollars worth of proven reserves.
I'd imagine this will really start ti fly once schedules and plans are announced.
People sell for a variety of reasons, traders take their 10%, stop losses can be taken out by a 10-15% drop, people who are sat on large paper profits might want to settle up with the accountant at this time of year, or indeed can simply be panicked into selling by a sharp little drop.
MM's will always follow the volume and will use whatever means they can to secure it. If there's £30k worth of buy orders on the book but someone comes in with a £1 million order under the book, they'll fill the big one, one way or another. The market isn't a conspiracy, it just works like one.
It might drop a little further before it gets going, it might start moving up this afternoon. The simple truth here is that this share has absolutely enormous potential, just a case of when.
Ignore the short term trading in the meantime I'd say.
If this has been dumped by the herd.
I would suggest that in the face of underwhelming immediate demand following this morning's RNS, the mm's were most probably confronted with a very substantial buy order, which is being worked over the next few days.
I think, reading between the lines, that this company will not only have a clear path to production but we'll also see updates over the coming weeks which start to give credence to some very big numbers indeed.
If that does begin to happen, as seems pretty likely, then we're in for some big numbers here - could be huge.
For those of you who can't be bothered to sit through it (to be fair, Malcy does give out some decent tips along the way, so it's worth hearing) is that you'd be a fool to sell even a single share as there is still "absolute masses to go for here".
I'll stick with it then...
On my little account.
Bid is flying up towards a close - MIght finish in an auction.
That's where it is - The SP tanked for various reasons and it fell down to the 2.5p range because that's the value the market gave it.
Obviously a substantial and sustained uplift in the poo has an effect on the SP here, which should be magnified, given the effect on cash and profits by the uplift. 20% on the poo can give 100% on the profit, so the uplift here should be significantly above the 20%, more like 50-60% from the base market price.
After that, a lot of variables...
up to high 3's, low 4's here and may well get there in quick time - This would appear a very natural thing to me.
After that, potential of 5p - 10p and beyond are very much dependent on news I think. Good news could well see multi-bag returns from the 2p low but bad news may well see it back down there.
On to 4p for now I reckon...
But I wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend...
Apologies
The chart was beginning to suggest that this dirty old unloved turd of a share was nowhere near as bad as the SP suggested...
Looks like decent upside from here...
1.2m shares in here.
Wise choice?
This share has tended to have a bit of a burst in the afternoon on recent blue days -
Might see it past 3p today - I'd say fair value for where the company is currently is around 30-35m or 4-5p per share.
Might get there in quick time, might meander around for a while first; we'll see.
Might well be time to set aside the fundamentals, which are sound and point towards development and commercialisation of the asset, with increased prospectivity over the rest of the area as a result.
If you see this from the MM perspective, there may well be some volume to be had from a straightforward rise but if they have a large buy order sat at the bottom of the book, they can generate far greater volume by dropping the SP to fill this, taking out lots of stop losses on the way, then banging it back up, like yesterday afternoon, to catch all those jumping in for the bigger gains. That looked to be yesterday's pattern of trading.
MM's want volume and that's the way they'll go. They aren't bothered about the SP, just about what it can do for them.
This should go back up and beyond 3p in fairly short time I would think. I don't see much in the way of headwind before it pops over 4p...
Just my thoughts
Seems to be a lot of angst on this BB for some reason - Reminds me why I haven't posted in such a long time.
I don't really get what all the concern is about - either it will go well and we'll re-rate sharply upwards again, or it won't and we won't.
Looks like a firm probable from where I'm sitting though - Quite clear the firm is being run properly since Idiens cleared out.
Very good at making promises was Idiens. The market even liked it for a while...
I think most people know it when they see it.
You clearly aren't a paid deramper. Nobody would pay you to put forward such a stupid argument.
Silly desperate nonsense.