RE: Hurricane14 Oct 2020 11:14
Most of the serious discussions on this BB have been of a very technical nature and I'm sure a lot of us including myself have found it very interesting and appreciate the knowledge passed on.
We are now in a position where some of those people and others have re-assessed the risks and moved on to pastures new.
If we put the Water Cut, Bubble Point, and DHP, to one side and take a look at the situation from a corporate angle to reassess the present situation.
Recently C.A. almost doubled its stake in Hur and Kerogen resigned their director from the BOD. which rightly or wrongly give me the impression that a buyout, farm-in, or takeover, was in the offering and still might happen.
However, the BOD has since stated that talks with stakeholders are going well, what we don't know is what those talks are about.
MY guess would be that in the first instance they would be talking to Spirit to see if they are willing to go ahead with the Lincoln tie back bearing in mind that the Lincoln tie back is already partly financed and whether they would consider a stake in Lancaster bearing in mind that Lincoln is leaking into Lancaster.
They would then have to talk to the CBH about kicking the conversion date a couple of years down the road.
They would then have to talk to the Institutions about raising sufficient cash possibly through a placement to carry out the remedial work planned.
If a placement is the chosen method to raise the cash it would have to be at an attractive SP, which doesn't make sense as to why CA would double their stake at a higher price knowing that placement was coming.
Have CA made an error of judgement and are now responsible for the recent heavy selling, hoping to buy in at a cheaper rate if there is a placement.
Interesting times and I suppose it all depends on which way the mop flops, it will all come out in the wash in the not too distant future.
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