Member Info for Slift

Haha, really hope it's not like that again..

In terms of general updates as a business, the company is in good shape.
- Production is in line (or better) for Q3
- Uganda sale completed
- Cashflow positive for Q3 (and likely for FY)
- etc.

Only risk for CMD is method of funding the future activities that will allow Tullow to realise the potential of assets. Any asset they're looking to monetise will require CAPEX.

Refinancing the 2022 bond is likely the best option for Tullow now that they have $1b+ liquidity.
But hopefully nothing major that will impact shareholder confidence or share price negatively.

ALL IMO. GLA.

bransonbull,

I had contacted IR about this --> The trading update for Q3 will be issued as part of CMD on 25th.

Dickbat, lol.

Average of 2.75p?
That's some averaging down from your initial investment at around 7p!

And wow! You've been doing this for *almost* longer than I've been in this world!
Keep it up! Hope it works out well for you Mr Experienced.

Dickbat,
You're starting to look silly now by "investing" in this traders share.

But hey, you do you, not in my place to make comments on others' investment choices. I'm just finishing off our convo from yesterday.

https://www.worldpipelines.com/business-news/12112020/african-development-bank-issues-grants-for-development-of-business-links-on-east-african-crude-oil-pipeline/

http://oilandgasrepublic.com/total-seeks-contractor-for-tilenga-project-in-uganda/

Both show that Total and Gov of Uganda are progressing towards FID.

Once all the proposals and the funding is secured for the project, Total will commit to obtaining FID.

ALL IMO. GLA.

Dickbat,

Lol, several years in HUR..
Sounds like you've got an emotionally attached to HUR.

Good luck, and hope you enjoyed your +6.58% today on HUR.

P.S. I'm not a trader as I actually look at fundamentals before investing, rather than charts.

ALL IMO.
Slift

I think the rise is due to creditor approval of the merge terms.

So as a result, all those that hedged against their debt
are looking to buy back. I.e. short squeeze.

Nope, not peed off. I'm still following this company to see where things go.

And I'll take a pass thanks CryptoCris, but good luck to you!

Dickbat,

I did actually, in fact, I've more than broke even with my HUR shares from 6p thanks. So no regrets, I don't have FOMO.
But don't worry, I'll too laugh at you when you "exit" if ever.

Also, Tanager prospect in Kaieteur block in Guyana is meant to spud before the end of the year.

And Bulletwood-1 prospect in Canje block will likely start drilling towards end of year, with spud in Q1 2021.

Good luck to all that are invested here.

Added more here today.

Useful chart from Africa Oil:
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/africa-oil-announces-the-entry-of-shell-oil-into-two-existing-blocks-and-the-signing-of-a-new-block-in-south-africa-837502241.html

Namibia wells likely to spud in mid 2021.

Scrodingerscat,

Yup, agree regarding Moodys.
Whilst some of what they say aren't wrong, they have stated more irrelevant aspects for their rating action such as 2022 hedging..

Also, both Moodys and S&P have been very very conservative. For example, Both S&P Moodys hasn't included the potential for $75m from FID to come soon.

Also, here's a statement from S&Ps rating note:
"Following the divestment, we expect Tullow's reported net debt to be about $2.4 billion at the end of 2020"
Well.. it's not even end of 2020 and yet Tullow has already achieved this goal of 2.4b net debt.

ALL IMO.

Most likely a short squeeze.

Also RR just had a 3 for 10 rights issue, not all the shares are in circulation at the moment (I don't think..?).

Tony,

"All it takes in some error in the construction and all kinds of delays could happen. I sense the company has de-risked on a huge scale."
Yup, delays also add to costs!

I think the breakeven is now closer to $50/barrel since the project runs the heated pipeline through Tanzania (hence increasing the distance and required land).
Obviously $50/barrel seems a lot currently, but in a few years time when first oil is achieved at Uganda the project will likely be very profitable (or at least for Total with over 55+% stake).

But there's a reason why CNOOC never opted to pre-empt rights. And by recent newsflows, CNOOC hasn't been involved at all in the discussion between Total, Uganda and Tanzania.. Probably same would have happened to Tullow with the 10% stake.

Oh wells, plenty of other good assets left!

Crude: -5.1m
Cushing: -1.2m
Gasoline: -3.3m
Distillates: -5.6m

Both of you too!
A couple of the FEW genuine people here :)

@DireEmblem,
HUR has a good chance to get to your breakeven if you're willing to hold over oil price recovery!
Also a few more positives:
- Potential 2C Resources from Lincoln mezosoic zone
- Potential Increase in reserves/resources when enhanced recovery option is implemented in Lancaster
- Any revisions done by CPR
- Warwick and Halifax resources
- etc.

Ofcourse there are risks too, but let's not discuss that again before Tuxedo8 and PlantedBHA attacks me :)

ALL IMO. (Transformer1977)

Canarywharfy,

Actually, it's $20b for the whole project, majority over 3 years.
https://uiogs.com/article/uganda-to-welcome-20-billion-fid-as-total-and-tullow-finalizes-farm-out-deal

The pipeline alone is $3.5b+. And the project has a breakeven of $50/barrel.

But yes, let's move on with a positive :)

bransonbull,

YES!

- Very confident in terms of production over Q3.
- Today's RNS provides confidence to Tullow's financial position, and Tullow is very much on track (P.S read into it for more info as a long term holder)
- There is still a risk in terms of financing activities for 2021:
Personally, I'd welcome refinancing 2022 senior notes or raising cash from instituitional investors via issue of shares. In Tullow's current situation and with oil price recovering with vaccine confirmed, i'm now against restructuring of RBL if there are significant consequences for this. If rights issue is still on cards for Tullow, I'd be very unhappy with more than $100m raise to fund activities.
But overall, there are a lot of options available to Tullow, majority of which I wouldn't mind and would actually impact the share price positively.

Also, with the progress Tullow has made and assuming FID completes by Jan 2021, Tullow should be able to pass January RBL without any of the above actions, but that would mean minimal CAPEX for 2021. So any cash raise from CMD will be to finance CAPEX rather than debt reduction.

ALL IMO.

Canarywharfy..

"While I am doing 900*33/21.57-575=801."

Okay, fair enough, now let's also add to your calculation the following:
c.$1.5b costs to Tullow to develop the 10% stake and see where it stands.

The contingent payment is an annual bonus of c. $0-25m/year without ANY COST to Tullow.

So overall, it's not that bad in comparison to the 2017-2019 deal.

The "mixed emotions" is because Tullow never planned to exit Uganda, but had to I guess.

Here's a review of the two deals:
2020:
- $575m for sale of entire 33.3% stake.
- Contingent payments (c. $0-25m+/year based on oil price and revenue, I suppose this is equivalent to having 1-2% stake if oil price is above $62/barrel)
- No capital gains tax ($14.61m tax paid for by Total)
= Total of $575m with 1-2% "ownership" via contingent payments

2017-2019:
- $900m in total for sale of 21.57%, leaving Tullow with c. 10% stake
- Uganda wanted capital gains tax of c. $167m payable by Tullow
= $733m with 10% ownership

Obviously the 2017-2019 deal is better, but under the circumstances Tullow faces along with the oil price slide earlier this year, the 2020 deal is respectable.

JUST IMO.