Member Info for Slift

slarti_bartfast,

$75m on FID - FID will take place in December 2020 or January 2021

Tullow is also entitled to payments once production starts. These are:
Contingent annual payments to be paid on upstream revenues from the Uganda Interests (reduced to 28.3334% following exercise by Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) of its back-in rights - see below) calculated as follows:
(i) no payment if the average annual Brent price is less than or equal to US$62 per barrel,
(ii) 1.25% (net of tax) if the average annual Brent price is greater than US$62 per barrel or
(iii) 2.5% (net of tax) if the average annual Brent price is greater than US$70 per barrel.

Also, another benefit of this sale:
The reimbursement of joint venture costs incurred and paid by Tullow Uganda from the Effective Date to completion of the Transaction in respect of the Uganda Interests. (i.e. $15m)

Following TLW's news on funds, there is a likelihood of two wells in Guyana in 2021.

Plans for 2021 will be provided on 25th November, but very high chance of drills in Guyana if they are able to secure further funds and/or refinance debt.

GLA.

FREE of HUR as of this morning :)

Could be good or bad news around the corner (likely good), but I see better stocks to invest in.

Good luck to all genuine holders here.

A lot of impatient traders and punters here :)

Ofcourse the $500m was priced in from RNS dated 21st October.

But there are some key information in todays' RNS that is beneficial for long term holders that really do see value here :)

ALL IMO. DYOR.

Whitebox increased their short by 0.18% on Friday.

8.86% of shares needs to be bought by major shortholders at some point.

Will be interesting to see how much longer they can keep up.

Just thought i'd add to this post on Ghana production for Q3.

Another thing to note on the Kosmos' RNS is Equatorial Guinea production. Tullow and Kosmos also share the same producing assets from Equatorial Guinea.

Kosmos reported Equatorial Guinea production was at 33k bopd gross.
Tullow owns 14.25% of this.

Working interest gross production for Tullow at c. 4.7k bopd, in line with Tullow's guidance (if not better, depending on Q4 performance)

GLA.

Great posts battle :)

Dickbat, I think bartle adds more than you lol

£106m at the end of June...

Since then c. $22m moved to unrestricted cash.

Current free cash is likely to be < $100m.

I'd be surprised if HUR finishes Y20 with more than $110m free cash.

ALL IMO (stupid Transformer1977).

Short Term:
- Likely lockdowns of USA if COVID cases/deaths continue to rise
- No support for shale oil companies during this crisis
- Likely little liasion between USA and OPEC on oil output - Biden will leave things to OPEC to sort out

Medium Term:
- Rejoin the Paris Agreement on Climate Change
- Iran/Venezuela sanctions likely lifted?
- Ban of fracking on federal lands and issuing new drilling permits banned
- Increase restrictions on emissions - bring US standards on emissions closer to EU (car, power, flaring etc.)
- Incentives for renewables and clean energy
- Rise in gasoline prices from the current sub $2/gallon. This should give refineries a better margin

Long Term:
- Net zero emissions by 2050
- net zero emissions for POWER industry by 2035

Overall, I think Biden will be good for Tullow.
- On the short term impacts, oil production from shale will decline to 6m barrels (from current 11m barrels) by mid-late 2021 due to lack of CAPEX investment. So any impact with lockdowns and other restrictions will be offset by lower production.

- On the medium term impacts, oil production from the USA will likely stay around 6m barrels due to high cost of drilling/developing production sites. Offset by Iran/Venezuela sanctions lifted? Oil prices will likely tend to maybe $80-90/barrel with improving refinery margins and demand (assuming demand recovers...)

- On the long term impact, let's not talk about that.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
Slift

November 4th:
Total volume: 4.569m
Pictet added 0.15% to short = Approx 2.1m shares sold

November 5th:
Total volume: 5.845m
Whitebox added 0.11% to short = Approx 1.5m shares sold

The big shorters (>0.5%) are certainly taking advantage of low volume days...

lol you're hilarious.

YOU "will be surprised if this doesn't get towards 8p next week"
The same way you think that AMGO "should be trading 15-20p"?
The same way you thought NSF will "hit double figures in a few days"?

Okay punter, I BELIEVE YOU!

"The Company expects to agree a Lock-Up Agreement with the AHG and the South African lender group in the early part of November 2020. Following execution of a Lock-Up Agreement, the Group will commence implementation of the Restructuring, which is expected to become effective in Q1 of calendar year 2021. In order to become effective, the Restructuring as currently constituted will need to be approved by PDL shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting ("EGM"). For the purposes of convening the EGM, the Company will publish a circular and prospectus to shareholders. The Company currently anticipates publishing the combined circular and prospectus before the end of the calendar year.

A further update in relation to the Company's corporate calendar will be made in due course."

Annual report scheduled to be released 17th Nov.
AGM in December.

The SP will likely not move until Q1 2021.

Just IMO.
Slift

Dickbat,
I'm entitled to my opinion thanks.

"there are more than enough drillers"
There are 3 that suits HURs timeframe.

Of which I'm sure there are orders in the pipeline for some north sea producers, inclusive of HUR (probably).

CA : "Following discussions with other significant shareholders in Hurricane, the Fund expects that the board of Hurricane will shortly update market participants as to its decisions on the use of its available capital
and its future works programme."

They sure are leaving this late considering that they might have to contract a rig for any future drilling works VERY SOON.

With oil prices rising and CAPEX being allocated for Y21 by OTHER north sea operators and limited rig availability... the last thing HUR can do for stakeholders is mess up contracting a rig for Y21.

Oh and Transformer1977, this is just IMO.

Yup scrodingerscat!
Really good draw in crude in API, will have to see what EIA reports.
Approximately 250k production still shut in @ the gulf of mexico due from Hurricane Zeta.

I think stockpiles are at a level where Brent can maybe make a move towards $48-50/barrel before year end.
There are still uncertainties that might dent sentiment and bring back fears of stock build.

But any improvements in demand with relaxation of lockdowns and further supply cuts (or extension) from OPEC+ should help.

Afterburn450,

$300m CB due 2021
$650m senior notes due 2022
$800m senior notes due 2025

Oil price outlook and doubts regarding 2022 senior repayment is what is holding this back.

But Tullow are exploring several options to ensure that repayment is made:
- Refinance debt due 2022
- Asset sales
- Raise cash via other means (rights issue/investors/new bond?)

But ultimately, rise in oil price should solve a lot of worries here. Typically need $55+ oil price for Tullow to be comfortable.

ALL IMO. GLA.
Slift

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1355643/coronavirus-news-vaccine-uk-nhs-rollout-gps-workers-december-uk-lockdown-latest

Oh dear bucklerfern..

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/grammar

Take your guesses peoples.

I'm gonna guess Transocean Barents for any drilling activity for HUR.

(Oh, and for Transformer1977 - ALL IMO.)