Member Info for Slift

This is great results.

In 2019, only 3% of KP Fertil sales were used for sugar cane.
This recent results mean that they are able to ue the potential with scientifically backed evidence to increase their sales.
This is confidence for consumers:
"The tests were conducted under the leadership of Dr. Gaspar Henrique Korndorfer, who is one of the most respected sugarcane consultants in Brazil and is widely referenced in sugarcane and silicon research, having worked in more than 60 sugar mills in the states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Goiás. He is also an active consultant for the Minister of Agriculture (MAPA), a position he has held since 1999."

One thing the article doesn't mention is the growing industry (although has been mentioned before). The main products targetted by KP Fertil - soybean, coffee, sugar and corn are all forecasted nearterm to grow in harvests and demand next year 2020-2021 according to Conab and USDA.

Exciting times to be involved.

ALL IMO. GLA.

Probably part of this:
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/273841/bluewater-north-sea-fpsos-modifications/

HUR will likely have to increase fluid capacity at some point too, should they wish to tie-back Lincoln and to make it work with water injection.

https://www.bluewater.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Aoka-Mizu.pdf

Capacity has been increased from 20k bwpd to 55k bwpd ready for water injection.
As of when? I don't know, but recently.

Isn't it funny how every single poster on this thread regarding Centrica doesn't realise the potential impact of this on HUR?

Don't forget that Spirit owns half of Lincoln.
So the sale of Spirit could have both a positive or a negative impact on Lincoln and the future of HUR depending on who the buyer is.

Just a reminder for all holders..
From the last trading update from Brian McMaster:

"The Board is very proud of the efforts the Harvest team has and continue to make. Our confidence in the future is stronger now than ever. Disappointingly, the share price tells a different story. We are very aware that our shareholders are not being rewarded. Now that the business is safe and prospering, with a maiden profit expected, we look forward to a renewed vigour in the share price performance."

Analysts will definitely view the "profit" on the P/L statement as a positive.
Either way, to make a statement like that in a trading update RNS release is something to look forward to as shareholders.

There isn't even £1000 worth of stock to buy currently.
Hopefully there's an update soon to get things moving faster.

ALL IMO. GLA.
Slift

OhhAhhCantona,

Due to the RBL liquidity test --> refinance of bond the 2022 bond will have to have a maturity beyond 2024.
However, due to Tullow's current debt structure, there is a requirement to do more than just a refinance of the $650m bond. Refinancing the 2022 bond to beyond 2024 will buy Tullow more time, but debt would become unmanageable in 2023 under the RBL terms and with the cashflow estimations provided by TLW in the CMD.

Furthermore, from the CMD, Les mentioned that Tullow are aiming for net debt of 1-1.5b in 2025. Which means that in 2025, total debt will be around $1.5b, which constitutes to more than just the $650m notes.
There are more information in the CMD that is AIMED at the RBL banks, such as:
- Replacement of reserves on a yearly basis (maintaining debt capacity under RBL)
- Les mentions in talks with banks and bondholders
- The "10 year plan" as such (to move debt beyond 2025)

Tullow will also need to restructure RBL, or refinance the $800m senior notes to suit their 10 year plan.

For the former, there is a requirement for cash raise.
Any sort of capital injection by shareholders or investors will result in a dilution.
Asset sales to raise this cash will not result in a dilution.

JUST IMO. GLA.

I'd like to see the broker notes too if people have access to them.

Whilst optimistic, there is still a possibility of exploration asset sales between now and April.
For shareholders and TLW as a business, this would be the best outcome.

All other options that may involve dilution isn't great for shareholders, although isn't the worst outcome.

Just IMO. GLA.

$55 Brent..
$60 Brent..
15p rise..
40p share price..
50p share price..
£1 share price..
20% rise..
25% rise..

Quite a lot of optimism here.
Majority of the time, it's optimism that makes stocks and markets jump rather than fundamentals.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out going forwards.

Just IMO. GLA.

https://gyazo.com/2d577a47630a577605b399992a8d1974

"Demeter group is composed of researchers, students and students of university of catalan who have genuine interest in positive impact to the life of the farming community by developing scientific methods in pursuit of operational excellence"

I have no idea why they even bother with these extended meetings and make a big deal out of this.
It's not like everyone is going to adhere to the cuts and have 100% compliance..

Should just make a deal just to provide the market with some confidence

I'd personally only use reputable platforms if you're investing in big amounts.

Don't forget that the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) only protects £85k of your savings/holdings per instituition should the financial services firm go bust.

Just something to consider.

PGee,
Most shorters have similar information to us investors, so they are not in the know.
I think everyone should make their own investment decisions based on what's available and do their own research, rather than following shorters.

Regarding your question, I've answered before in the comment to Canarywharfy. New information provided in the CMD has thrown some of my projections off.

Here's my post from a month ago following Moody's rerate:

"Both S&P and Moodys' both take into account the $500m proceeds from Uganda.

But in terms of January RBL, the liquidity test is a hit or miss in terms of Moody's forecasts/models.
Several things that Moodys' haven't factored in their forecast:
- $75m on Uganda FID
- Cashflow for H2 following cost cuts.

With a breakeven FCF for Y20 (i.e. $0 as per Tullow's guidelines) and assuming no unforeseen costs in H2, Tullow should just be able to make the liquidity test with (+/- $10m excess/shortfall). But very uncertain.
With the Uganda FID payment, Tullow will have headroom to pass the liquidity test.

If Uganda FID doesn't occur by YE20, Tullow would have to convince the lenders at the RBL that this cash will be available at the point where they face the shortfall.

Moody's expectations of production of 65-70k bopd for Y21 and Y22 is concerning. I don't think Tullow will be able to achieve above 75k production for Y21, but somewhere around 70-75k bopd should be a manageable amount and hopefully drilling in Ghana helps."

Tullow has a January RBL and will use this opportunity to put their finances straight.
And as it stands with <70k bopd Q4 cashflow and no Uganda FID there is a shortfall in liquidity.
Tullow will have until 30th April 2021 to address this shortfall.

We don't know how they will address it. Could be refinancing, could be restructuring, could be raising cash, could be debt for equity, could be asset sale, etc.
But there will likely be a consequence to shareholders.

That's my stance, i'm just not willing to take that risk on my initial holding considering the increased shortfall due to significant drop in production in Q4 and uncertainty regarding Uganda FID.

JUST IMO. GLA.

H1 2021.

I think Total are looking to complete FID AND start building the pipework by 30th June 2021.

As it stands, FID is looking to be made by Q1 2021.
But there's also legal challenges ongoing atm.

Better for Tullow to receive the $75m proceeds from FID before the RBL, but that's an element of uncertainty.

Queen - Another one bites the dust
AC/DC - Highway to Hell

On the brightside, at least the music won't stop I don't think.

Oh, and obviously it wouldn't be $450m each year cashflow. That's just the average, but cashflow will be higher between 2025-2030 as debt is paid off and hence less finance costs.

Following some analysis of the presentation.

Breakeven for 2021 is approx $47-48/barrel. With 54% hedges at $49/barrel, this further lowers breakeven to about $45-46/barrel for 2021.

So in their projection, they have assumed breakeven cashflow for 2021. Any upside of Brent from $45/barrel will provide more cashflow than provided in the CMD. Every $5/barrel upside would produce approx $70m for the year.

Breakeven for 2022 is likely to be around $43/barrel.

Tullow has streamlined the business such that breakeven each year is $40/barrel from 2023.
At $55/barrel, Tullow will make approx $450m/year free cash flow for 2023-2030.
Every $5/barrel thereafter is approx $100m/year cashflow. But I think it'll be less than this due to royalties and non-cash payments etc.

All just estimates based on provided information. DYOR.

Oh okay, thanks genius PlantedBHA.

Shorting sounds like trouble and the only platform I use to trade stocks (HL) doesn't offer the ability to short unfortunately.

Either way, looking forward to the production update, drilling forward plan AND THE FINANCING ARRANGEMENT.

"And, finally, Slift has most certainly not turned a bearish hue after the CMD."

Not bearish at all, but rather cautious on my behalf.
The CMD should be seen as very positive for the future of Tullow, and in my opinion, the plans to develop Ghana has always been the best strategy to turn this company around.

Is this Crystal Amber selling I wonder?

giggady,

No planned maintenance to my knowledge this year. But it is a possibility of unplanned or other. That's an uncertainty we don't know.

But what we do know is that if you listen to CMD when Al-Monthiry was speaking, he had indicated that Jubilee current production is around 80k bopd, and TEN is mid 40k bopd.
With OPEC cuts in non-operated portfolio (c. 21k bopd), it adds up to around 70k bopd for Tullow's working interest.

JUST IMO. GLA.