Member Info for Slift

Canarywharfy,
Al-Monthiry confirms that CURRENT production is lower at the CMD by stating that Jubilee is 80k and TEN is mid 40k.

As for production guidance for 2021, i've already answered this in a post to you. Here's a repost from a while ago:
"Canary,
Regarding your comments yesterday on production..
The forecasted production for Y21 is 64.7k - 67.7k depending on production from Non-op (OPEC compliance in 2021).
I'll let you work it out using Slide 13 and Slide 23 from the CMD presentation."

Go work it out since you're still deluded.

ALL IMO. GLA.

@toothache and everyone else,
Thanks, and good luck with your investments too!
I'll still hover around here as I'm still positive and hopeful for TLW on the long term following the RBL or any actions that reduces the risks (i.e. asset sales).

@PPS69
The reason for my exit was Brent price. Not that because it's rising, but because it's unsustainable at current price.
Repost from around 2 weeks ago:
"Yes, possible to see Brent at $54 sometime because of the weekly candle, but as it stands there is no support to maintain those prices for long periods of time.
The OPEC 3 months delay is likely already priced into Brent following recent rise. But there could be surprises at the OPEC meeting.

don't see Brent having support in the mid 50's until stockpiles are reduced further. Good progress being made in reducing the stockpile, but demand and supply won't support $55 until further declines in stockpiles and improvement in demand. If recent rates of decline continue, I'm thinking mid Q1."
With increase in stockpiles (recent EIA data), the support for higher oil prices only extend the timeframe.
My strategy is to stick to my projections rather than hope that things will get better (until there's proof that things are getting better).
But i'm sure everyone has their own strategy and they should follow what's best :)

@Canarywharfy,
I think you can go listen yourself, not in my interest to go find timestamp to prove my point. Al-Monthiry mentions Jubilee being at 80k bopd and TEN at mid 40k.
Then i'm sure you're capable of doing some simple maths.
But just to help you out, here's Tullow's stake in the fields:
Jubilee: 35.48%
TEN: 47.18%

@mattwales,
The projected cost for everything you need is provided in the presentation.
CAPEX, OPEX, G&A, Decom, etc.
You're going to have to estimate some costs, but I get breakeven at approx $1150m.

ALL IMO. GLA.

lol, you are really funny Canarywharfy.
Since you keep picking on me, i'll highlight some points to reply.

Firstly:
True breakeven for 2020 is approx $49.4-50.2/barrel.
This translates to $38-40/barrel breakeven when you include the hedges.
For 2021, True breakeven is approx. $47/barrel
Lower by a $1-2 if you include hedges.

Secondly:
With the above breakeven, the company will breakeven at year end. Although, I think it's more likely to be a little negative cashflow due to drop in production in Q4.

Thirdly:
I'm no finance expert, but even I know that a simple calculation like that to get the "supposed" £306m cashflow (but it'll be breakeven/negative cashflow see point 2) does not equal EBITDA.
EBITDA for 2020 will be approx. $700-750m in my estimates.

Fourth:
There's plenty of information on the slides and presentation to give you the current production rate and projected production rate.
If you don't trust Tullow's slides, listen to Wissam Al-Monthiry (Managing Director of Ghana) who confirms the drop in production.
If you think you know more than Wissam Al-Monthiry about Ghana, then that's hilarious.

I think I calculated 64.7-67.7k bopd production for 2021.

Finally:
You can deluded all you want, but the information is all there.
Feel free to think that the number is just pulled "out of my sleeve and totally made up".

People should make their own investment decisions and i'm not here to influence anyone. I only provide opinions :)

ALL IMO. GLA.

This company will recover in sales. I think everyone should be a bit more realistic with projections. This company likely won't manage 450kt sales in 2021, but it's not impossible and there could be significant demand.
For me, sales target of 50-100kt for 2021 is positive.
100kt+ for 2022 should bring significant value here.
Obviously there is the possibility of achieving much greater, but i'd rather be realistic.

Q4 is an important update, and hopefully they are able to give sales guidance for next year.

It must also be mentioned that if there is a "profit" on the balance sheet, it indicates that OVERALL between assets and cashflow, the company is "adding" value. Whether this is just inventory of products or adding value with new equipment (or buildings) on site.
This provides the company with a good balance sheet that they are able to use to get loans from the bank.
The recent credit financing for customers could also be something that is backed by HMI's assets.

Also, it should also be noted that the directors do hold a good amount of shares in this business.
Brian - 3.9%
Luiz Azevedo - 0.89%
Americas Investments (where Luiz is the controlling director) - 5.74%

I don't think it's in the companys interest to do a placing at current share price.

ALL IMO. GLA.
Slift

Canarywharfy,
"We can perfectly pay down debt without a reestructuration which you clearly don't understand."
Either your crystal ball can really see the future, or you're just ignorant.
I already know which one.

"No don't need to reestucture anything or screw ourselves up sorry but I am not a masochist like you"
Just like you thought that Uganda sale wasn't necessary and voted AGAINST the sale in an attempt to bring this company into bankruptcy/administration?
Here's a reminder of your votes against:
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/tullow_oil/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=495&newsid=1402440

I'll reinvest when there's more clarity on refinancing for RBL.
Good luck to you!

Canarywharfy,

I think you need to look at reality.

I'm with Tony on this, although not quite a rights issue, but some sort of dilution if the RBL debt is restructured.
Obviously dilution can be prevented with farmdown of Guyana/Suriname licenses.

I'll refer you to Half Year results and you can do your own research by reading the going concern statement regarding liquidity.

I have sold my remaining holdings now as oil price doesn't quite line up with my estimates/projections.
Hope your strategy works.

ALL IMO. GLA.

Bopd,
"Bear in mind this is Brazil where enviromental issues are not an issue"
Sure it may not be an issue in Brazil, but it's an issue to export from Brazil to say Europe if the product isn't sustainable.
Supply chain really matters for products we consume here and elsewhere. It's also getting stricter as people are getting pickier regarding environmentally friendly products.

Here's the European Commission strategy/policy for all import of food products from raw materials to finished goods:
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:52020DC0381&from=EN

So stop using the potent fertilisers and start using carbon neutral KP Fertil remineraliser and maybe you can sell your farm products in higher quantity and higher quality for higher prices and margins.

Wow nice bopd.
Start buying KP Fertil remineraliser for your farm and close that short ;)

And better to target big corporations for 5-10kt sales at a time than to sell 5 t at a time to bopd, right?

My experience is in the process industry and far from any experience in Brazil. Though Brazil sounds cool

"I am not going to conversed with you anymore Slift"

Thanks for conversing yet again Dickbat :)
Must be because i irritate you ;)

"Yes you do irritate me...!" - Dickbat

"450k promised.... struggling to get 50k...
Management are idiots."

Harvest are in a market where loyalty pays off.
Farmers tend to buy off trusted suppliers for long periods of time on contract. They will almost always go back to the same supplier each year to order their materials.

Harvest has had a bad year in 2019 due to distribution/contract strategies. At the time, this was necessary for Harvest as the contracts were made prior to KP Fertil operating. This gave Harvest a headstart as they had orders for the product even before they had a production site/plant.

Y2019 was a set back for Harvest and they have since made decent sales to date. Assuming they no longer have set backs, the same clients will keep buying product from Harvest each year and the order book will soon fill up of various new clients.

I think you'll find that Harvest will probably achieve 450k sales sometime in the future. But steps are being made to achieve that.
I'm expecting 50-100kt sales target next year, where they are able to make use of repeat business from this year, whilst also targetting new clients/farmers/farm fields.

ALL IMO. GLA.

Ok then.

Ironpyrite,

I tend to not go off investment banking forecasts, but yes Goldman's is $65/barrel by Q3. I think Goldman also called some ridiculous forecasts and targets earlier in the year. Goldman and other investment or finance instituition is not to be trusted as they do forecasts for their own benefit.

I use non-bias forecasts from energy instituitions and other instituitions. Such as World Bank, EIA, IEA and IMF.

But do your own research and invest based on what you trust and believe.

ALL IMO. GLA.
Slift

Transformer1977,

"you seem to know absolutely Zero about the finance world but yet make unsubstantiated comments on funding and bonds without understanding the current fiscal environment, particularly now with POO on the rise and resulting advantages for Brent producers in the UK while ultra low rates persist"

If you think HUR can self fund the forward work programme, then it seems like you're the one who doesn't understand :)

But hey, as I said, i'm intrigued in knowing HOW this company will fund it, which will all be revealed at the forward work programme :)

ALL IMO.
Slift.

@botbot,
And for reference since you don't know how to do research:
All BRENT oil forecasts:

IEA: <$50 until 2023
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2020

IMF: $46.7 in 2021
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/data/assump.htm

World Bank: $44 in 2021
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/34621/CMO-October-2020.pdf?sequence=7&isAllowed=y

EIA: $47-50 in 2021
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

Shell: $40 in 2021
https://currency.com/shell-share-price-forecast-and-news

Tullow: $45 in 2021
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/tullow_oil/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=495&newsid=1431150

But hey, let's all go with botbot's "prediction" of $100/barrel for 2021 right? :)

ALL IMO. GLA.
Slift.

I'm not telling anyone to buy or sell.
Buy the entire company for all I care - makes no difference to me.

I simply post FACTS.

Haribo,
None of your points come under "Funding, Bond and Production" does it?
So why post?
Plus, the points you have made aren't facts, they are just your hope which may or may not come true.

@botbot,
"When he starts off by saying that Brent next year will be $45 to $50 in his calculations"
I'm going off forecasts from world bank, EIA, IEA, OPEC, many oil corporations and companies.
If you think oil will be higher, then you're looking through rose tinted glasses.

ALL IMO. (For Transformer1977 since he doesn't have brain cells to know that everything I post is my own opinion).
GLA.
Slift.

- Expected free cash in bank of c. $80-100m by years end
- $70m+ required for water injector
- $230m bond due in 18 months
- Production could well be 11k right now (no updates since Oct)

With Brent expected to be c. $45-50/barrel average next year according to forecasts, it sure is intriguing how HUR will fund both the $230m bond and the $70m+ water injector well.

Whether positive or negative for shareholders, the lack of updates from the BOD and the new CEO doesn't quite provide the confidence for shareholders.

Yup Tony, Saudi Arabia also sees oil around $50/barrel for the next 3 years and have budgeted based on this.
This is also why Tullow had low oil price projections over the 10 year plan.

But at the same time, oil is very volatile and if demand recovers to new highs, then oil will certainly rise with it despite supplies.
With lack of investments in the past few years and the lack of investment in the years to come, supply will be limited should demand increase.
Not to mention the future emissions regulations which will likely increase production cost due to expensive CO2 capture/utilisation technologies that oil companies will have to incorporate.

What's more concerning is EIA's Short Term Outlook on US Production. Despite the reduced rig activity, EIA forecasts 11.1m barrels/day US production by December 2021.
There really needs to be some hard environmental regulations set for shale gas in Biden administration to really reduce shale activity for the future.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

ALL IMO. GLA.

Cushing: -1.845m

Will be interesting to see what EIA reports.

It's nearly the end of the year. As expected, stocks tend to build around this time as holiday season.
The increase in crude stocks is surprising, but at the same time, many countries are still in lockdown.

API:
Crude: +1.141m
Gasoline: +6.442m
Distillates: +2.316m

Whilst this may not have immediate impact on oil prices, it's clear that oil will not have demand/supply support until at least Q1 2021.
But we're in uncertain times and being a very volatile commodity, there could be fast moves (either direction) in both stocks, optimism and prices of oil.

ALL IMO. GLA.

jcookec,

Yup, i'm also expecting HMI to exceed their sales target of 50k for this year. There are several hints throughout RNS to support this.

The original target for this year was 75kt.
From the September Trading Update:-
o Q1 CY2020 sold 3,334 tonnes, representing an increase on the 3,000 tonnes target
o Q2 CY2020 sold 6,525 tonnes compared to the 14,400 tonnes target
o Q3 CY2020 sold 27,577 tonnes against the 30,600 tonnes target

HMI have achieved 37436 t sales against 48kt target for the first three quarters.
This means that their original target for Q4 was 27kt

To achieve their new target of 50kt, HMI need 12,564 t sales in Q4.
This is less than half of their original target (46-47% of target).
I'm not expecting sales to exceed significantly, but I'd be pleased with 50-55kt sales for the year (i.e. to achieve up to 65% of original target).

There are several hints to highlight the increased sales. Refering to the RNS on 22nd September on Expansion:
"It is expected that the works will be completed by end of September 2020, before the start of the main buying season. Upon completion, work is expected to be undertaken on a 2-3 shifts production scale."

And the RNS on 3rd Nov on the completion:
"With the completion of the expansion, Harvest is now working on a three-shift production scale (24 hours per day) in order to meet growing demand and delivery of products sold in the third quarter of 2020."

The fact that they have opted for a three-shift implies that there is more demand than expected in September.

These are just my interpretations and why i'm expecting HMI to exceed 50kt target.

ALL IMO. GLA.