Member Info for Slift

Trebor,

I'm unsure what you are asking.
Rain fuel?

Kenya is only worth $3b after development.
Right now, it's worth like $500m, for the entire stake.

In short, Tullow has more debt than assets.
But debt is not a problem. Growth is the problem.

Lol.. anton invests based on photos of CEO's?
Or is it just a baseless ramp?

Either way, clueless.

?? Adie invests based on the past? Lol

Last year's break even FCF was $74.5/barrel.
This year's break even FCF is $75.5/barrel.

Each year the underinvestment in TEN is making it more and more uneconomical to produce. Without Jubilee, TEN would be negative cashflow.

I don't think we'll see any news on Kenya until at least half year. Even if stake is sold, no FID until at least 2024.

What are investors looking forward to in this stock? Only thing going right for Tullow is oil price.

When will the turnaround happen? When's the Capital Markets Day?

"Based on the Site's latest actual performance results for August 2022, and assuming that the Site's performance and the market variables remain at or around those levels, it is expected that Pyebridge will generate total revenues for 2022 in the range of £1.8m to £2.1m with a gross profit margin of around 30%. The foregoing expected revenue is around 2x (or 200%) higher than initially modelled at the time of the acquisition of Pyebridge.

Furthermore, looking forward it is expected that once MED's current total combined generation portfolio of c. 28.3 MW are fully constructed and in steady state production, that the combined portfolio will generate total annual revenues in the range of £10m to £12m."

I want MAST to hit over £2m revenues. But from a realistic point of view, it will hit over £1.6m for 2022. Even at a bearish view of £1.4m revenue, the current share price is ridiculously undervalued.
At 20% gross profit margin, this will net close approx. £300k/year net.

For 2023, expect revenues to hit at least £2.5m from Pyebridge.
I value Pyebridge at over £5m at that rate.

With the expected growth potential, this should add further value to the business.

Only thing dragging this down is Kibo and the £1.27m due to Kibo.
The quicker MAST deals with this debt, the more at ease I'd be.
Otherwise, once in a lifetime opportunity to invest here, IMO.

Slift.

Well.. LC will be IPOing the waste to energy portfolios without any revenue stream...

I certainly won't touch it.

Regarding MAST.. I have patience until May.
We'll see how it does with debt and operations in the coming days.
An update is due soon.

GLA.
Slift

Kibo's assets are worthless except for MAST. I do hope Kibo continues to sell MAST as it's probably the huge controlling stake that is deferring investors to MAST.

Mast debt position at the moment:
£1.27m outstanding convertible loan from Kibo (due by June 2023?)
£350k from individual investor (2.5 years maturity)
£300k (up to £475k - £175k undrawn) from individual investor (2.5 years maturity)
£1.875m undrawn from individual investor (2.5 years maturity)

Mast should acquire more debt against it's Pyebridge asset to pay back Kibo. Then no real risk with this company.
This will then also provide funding to develop other projects.

Real worth of this company considering the investment and assets is £6-7m, not accounting for growth potential.
That is at least 50% upside not withstanding the growth potential of any of the assets in development.

Slift.

Lol CanaryWharfy.

Tullows' stake in Kenya is not worth more than $250-300m without development.
Also, the $10m allocation of CAPEX to Kenya this year (at January update) means that this project won't kick off this year at all.

Each year that passes, a lot of potential for Kenya is lost and development becomes less viable (or cost per barrel increases).

So even if Tullow manage to sell part of stake this year, the fact that another year is lost is more significant than you think.

There will be a buyer for Kenya nonetheless as oil prices are high and the oil prices in the future are to be sustained for at least another 3-5 years.

But to sell 50% of Tullows' stake for $150m is barely worth it. But Tullow have no choice. With 25% stake, Tullow could POTENTIALLY afford to develop Kenya over 3 years with forecasted CAPEX in the next few years. However, this will be detrimental to Ghana.

y11, my holding here is insignificant.

I don't care what happens to Tullow as it stands. I'm actually a little bearish with Tullow, but optimistic about oil price.
I don't see other oilers as attractive.

Got a cool average of 36.3p here y11, what about you?

With continuous decline of production of TEN, Tullow may potentially have to downgrade assets on balance sheet once again.
However, this could be offset by the investment in Jubilee, increasing the value of assets at Jubilee.

So has there even been any significant changes to balance sheet?
Looking at HY 22 results, the balance sheet hasn't improved the slightest over the past 2 years, but instead maintained. Net assets are still negative.

Looking at the January update, going forwards, $30m for decomm is to be set aside each year. This is equivalent of an exploration drill each year.. This requirement hasn't been mentioned in past years, but it just goes to show that Tullow are ONLY focussing on their Ghana assets - the whole life cycle, until decommissioning.

There needs to be significant change to strategy, and earlier the change the better. Should take advantage of the oil prices the coming years to grow and come out of the hole they have dug over the past 5+ years.

Looking forward to Capital Markets Day. Question is.. when?

Just imagine what would happen to Tullow if oil price hits $60 or below for extended period of time in 2023.
As it stands, with the CAPEX, decom commitments, FCF would potentially be wiped and be negative.

That's why I'm not so keen on Tullow. 2 years to recover from crisis and it seems like no progress has been made.

It's quite funny really.
"Net Zero, climate change, 2C target" blah blah blah is only relevant within EU and America.

No matter how hard they try to limit climate change, they cannot change human behaviour of 8 billion individuals.
I am in Mexico where petrol is 22 pesos/litre (90p). The cars here pollute so much that some don't even have catalytic converters. The factories are consistently polluting the atmosphere without any proper abatement technology. There's wildfires and I've seen countless times of individuals burning trash or fields here - huge fires that just simply pollute the world.

Anyone who thinks that Climate change can be controlled is in Cuckoo land. And for America and EU.. it's just ammo to tax major profitable corporations for $$$ and to present a public face that they are doing everything to lead the world in climate change.

In reality, they are doing nothing and climate change will continue.

What's that? CanaryWharfy is whinging again?

Nothing new on Tullow then :')

MAST needs to confirm if the operational updates are quarterly or half yearly!

An update would be fantastic as no doubt the results will be good.

Will Mast keep the profitability following the construction of the other projects?

Lol Canary,

"The share price is way lower than what I paid for. When will we get a decent price?"

Think you'll be waiting a long time to get back to the price you bought at.
I think even world class discoveries in Guyana won't take Tullow back to the highs it once was.

But at least you have a portion of what you initially invested.

Should be good results as power requirements in the UK have been consistent and has been a very wintry period.

If MAST are able to get all 27.8MW of their portfolios running by 2025, this would generate close to £8m in revenue. Huge upside growth potential.

Yes, but only to take advantage of oil prices. Unless there is a change in strategy and shareholder returns.

Yes absolutely racksonracks. But GOR can be controlled and minimised with water injection. It's all dependent on the well pressure.

@L3Trader,
It's time to change the strategy. I'm disappointed capital markets has been postponed.
Tullow's original strategy was to drill heavy into TEN this year onwards. But if they do start focusing on TEN, I can see Jubilee tailing off rapidly if they reduce investment in that field (for reasons mentioned below).

Now that historic assets have mostly been decommissioned, TLW will have an extra $80-100m this year not accounting for FCF. Explorations have just been unsuccessful for Tullow. Oil and gas stocks are still cheaply priced. I'd want Tullow to invest and buy out smaller operations all over the world where the return is maximised. I.e. become a world production focussed company and grow - not just Africa on Ghana/Gabon assets.
Tullow has a huge non-operated portfolio with a significant number of small assets. Why not have similar but with various small portfolios operated by Tullow? In this environment, every barrel is worth producing, so even assets producing 500-3000 barrels/day is significant.

In my opinion, high oil prices are to be sustained for at least another 3-5 years because of the COVID + Russian war shock. So take advantage of it.

Slift