Member Info for Slift

Bottom was 2.5p.
I bought all around 3.5p and have already sold it.

It was only 3% of my portfolio.

You definitely sound like CanaryWharfy.

I don't care about my other investments, some are down, some are up and have 60% of it on cash. But overall doing great. But you seem to care about it more than I do haha.

This is a TLW board, so keep it to TLW.

I bought into ARB at 3.5p thanks.

I'm not a big fan of crypto but couldn't miss that opportunity.

L3Trader,

Jubilee "seems" to be performing better. But there has been significant investment in Jubilee for 2 years now. But in reality, the production is stagnant despite the investment since 2020.

TEN has been declining yes, but there has been a lack of investment there. With 2 failed drills, it's not surprising that the production is heavily down.
But my point is, all it would take is 2-3 successful drills to increase the production rapidly at that field. At over 50% stake, this contributes significantly to Tullow.

Actually, I tripled my investment in ARB recently thanks, although was only a small amount.

But I don't brag.

Lol, I'm far from any tourist places actually.

It's better here without tourists. Noone speaks English and my Spanish is getting better :D

But thanks for asking.

Is this CanaryWharfy? You sound it.

"You are basically saying that Rahul has been misleading shareholders (I'm not necessarily disagreeing) but its probably naivety, which is just as bad a trait in a CEO."

Not quite, at the time, it was a very convincing strategy and I'm not saying that it's not working. It is working, but not as much as Raul indicated. This is clear in the production performances.

And a 1.5x times EBITDA/debt gives opportunities and the ability for Tullow to look at other options. Remember, debt is sometimes good, no need to pay it down if you don't have to.

My portfolio is doing great!

I spent the entirety of last year in Mexico and plan to do the same this year :D. It's great here.

Supercooper,

The problem with flatline production is due to underperformance of Jubilee.
In fact, if it wasn't for the excessive drills taken place over the past 2 years, I think you'll find that Jubilee would be producing at 60k bopd gross or less.
So it was a good thing to keep the company going, but was anyone really expecting anything else from this? Rahul set a ridiculous EOR for Jubilee and it was all a gimmick to survive past 2 years. Ofcourse with the drilling EOR has increased, but not anywhere what Rahul has stated.

TEN on the other hand still has potential and has performed better than Jubilee despite the failed Ntomme wells and the underinvestment (in comparison to Jubilee). 2023 was when Tullow was going to invest deeply in TEN and this should provide a boost to production, but again - the EOR stated by Rahul is ridiculous, considering the geology and complex of TEN. But the potential is there.

What Tullow has been getting good at past 2 years is managing and producing from significantly more matured assets. These assets tend to come cheap on the market.
Going forwards to really impact production, Tullow should really buy cheap matured assets on the market and continue doing similar to what they did with Jubilee and TEN - fast payback investment. At the end of the day, in a high price environment, what you produce is what matters - not how good the assets are.
Furthermore, to give the share price a boost, dividends and shareholder returns are necessary.

Slift.

Bought into here in recent times.

Looking forward to the next trading update on Pyebridge, which should be very near.

Mast has always been able to secure funding. Kibo ownership is a worry, but hopefully they sell down more of their holding. In any case, the 7m sold by Kibo is a positive for the future of this company.

Slow growth currently, but you'd be surprised how quickly this picks up.

GLA.

Haha slater :')

Tullow recorded a low of around 7p for some period during the COVID crisis when oil prices plummeted and there were significant concerns of Tullow defaulting on covenants. In fact, Tullow only just about managed to survive.

I remember Anton piggybacking onto a user called laidback from CINE onto TLW. So 9p entry is believable. From one risky share to another without understanding any fundamentals or anything about the stock.

Adie on the other hand, is a latecomer, average of at least 35p+.

Either way, should be interesting what the Trading update and forecasts are for 2023.

Slift.

Losing my money? Gambling?
I've simply been busy working abroad with a 6 hour difference to do anything with the stock market.
And enjoying life of course.

What about you y11, clearly nothing has changed since you're still here haha.

L3Trader,

The TEN production is maintained over the past year and a bit, with a slight decline.
Unfortunately, despite all the drills, Jubilee production is also stagnant. Tullow should have been producing 100k bopd at Jubilee by now, imo.

Either way, production is key at the moment - not extending fields, or keeping fields going. Ghana is starting to underperform.
Maybe the best way forward is to keep and maintain Ghana at current productions whilst using excess cash to buy into other assets that will provide material production increase?

One things for sure, Tullow are in a position to change strategy how they want going forwards, unlike during distressed times 2 years ago.

Jeez, Adieuk32 doesn't stop does he :')

Here are the real facts:
- Yes, decommissioning will be significantly lower as majority of Tullow's UK assets are coming to an end for decommissioning.
- Tullow WILL drill a well at orinduik this year. I understand that this is a requirement to keep the license. However at 60% stake, this will be costly.
- $50m dividend is very unlikely with ongoing drilling requirements in Jubilee and TEN. Although do expect FCF to be between $200-300m for FY 2023. Though $30m or so dividend would be a good starting point (assuming debt structure allows).
- Where is the production increase over the past 2 years? Weren't we all expecting 75k bopd this year onwards?

Hola Tman, Como estás?

On what exactly?

Lol

HarHarHar is trying to buy Argo at a lower price.

Well sunshine, you missed your chance. Idiot.

Hahaha, Chaebol losing money on corz HarHarHar

Even on TheTimes Newspaper!
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0cfbe4d6-86cb-11ed-bb21-8f4d97ec7b02?shareToken=ae01649837c9382b4175c825eb575570

Everyone going to be jumping on this now.

Transaction closed.
Huge news, SP to 50p.

For the TLW, this merger will make it robust.
For the shareholders of both companies, growth potential becomes limited, with TLW suffering the most.

Kenya and Guyana growth potentials are being given up to become a more stable business with dividends.

Would have been a better merger following Kenya FID and a FDP in Guyana.

Just IMO.