The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
All very quick, not much time.
Still haven't seen the AGM, so flying a bit blind, but Sentinel tells me...
Weather is balmy, today we actually get the best view for quite a while, it has rained, but tales of torrential rain precluding drilling in December were greatly exaggerated, still quite dry in places, our part of Rukwa, if you look very closely you can see Tai-3 and the Itumbula pads -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53404359099/in/dateposted-public/
Itumbula general arrangement -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53404037391/in/dateposted-public/
Itumbula-2 (West) clearly much movement on the pad over the last 5 days, the cellar still appears at least partly exposed suggesting that it is not as yet actually fully erected on the pad. But it is there, it would appear, along with all the associated equipment. There looks like something on the roadway leading to the pad so some equipment may still be arriving.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53404358159/in/dateposted-public/
Tai-3 appears all but abandoned, may be used for storage of pipes etc, but not much else.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53404474375/in/dateposted-public/
My view would be that anyone who thinks we are going back there anytime soon is mistaken. Time will not allow it in any event, if we are to do Eyasi for oil/gas/helium in 2024.
But we are between a rock and a hard place. From the bit I have been able to read I think the Board are also mystified and mesmerised by the price collapse. They need to stop thinking about things subject to ratification, and tell us their concrete plans if they were able to raise sufficient funds. They obviously have such plans, and they are to be seen at Companies House, the Tz govt portal and the Tz government Linkedin pages. No secrets there, so tell us and the markets Lorna, before it is too late.
I doubt if the Tz government will be interested unless we are able to put in more than just a rig.
And the new company is UK based, no BVI nonsense there. UK courts and UK law, it is for a reason.
Noble Mbelele-2 15-12-2023, for those interested, rig is also probably still there, along with much equipment.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53404046216/in/dateposted-public/
Just quickly, before it gets buried tomorrow.
The Rukwa licensing map appears to have changed.
Noble look to have withdraw applications for at least 4 licences.
Contrast from yesterday
https://flic.kr/p/2pmpACp
With the earlier map
https://flic.kr/p/2pe8dGq
Helium Rift Valley Limited also appears to have given up vast swathes of licences, going from 55 applications/approvals to 12.
Our licences remain the same at 18 issued and 9 secret Eyasi applications/approvals.
Prompted by drill results?
Either people aren't so bothered anymore or the Tz government wants action. HRVL had sat on their licences doing nothing for 6 years.
Large areas of Tanzania with helium potential are now suddenly unlicensed.
Value destruction on an epic scale.
Will be 90% down over 6 months, and for what?
None of this shower should ever be allowed near another company.
But they'll just shuffle off into other directorships but I bet He1 will never appear on their CV's.
Which isn't a lot considering our share price has been trashed, by the company themselves, and our ability to raise funds upon which we rely in the future, has almost been destroyed.
I expect that the end game will be that our licences and trusty rig, having been thoroughly tested with a couple of drills, will end up in the hands of others, but it will be a "good deal" we will be told and all those tax losses will be of use to someone, until such time as no one is interested, and the whole sorry mess disappears for ever a la AAOG.
Anyway Sentinel...our part of Rukwa, earlier today -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53392361667/in/dateposted-public/
Quite a fair day, some high level cloud and showers, but for the lost part clear. and rainfall remains very modest, large areas of brown where it has hardly rained at all. Clearly those forecasts of torrential December downpours were somewhat exaggerated, at least thus far.
Tai-3 is just peeping though the clouds, no change there, it is largely deserted, so far as I can see.
But a decent view of Itumbula today, the first for around 3 weeks, albeit a little hazy high level cloud.
This is the geography -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53393728565/in/dateposted-public/
This is a comparison of 22-11-2023, the last clear day and today
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53393287801/in/dateposted-public/
What appears to be the cellar at Itumbula-1 appears still appears exposed. Most of the accommodation appears to be there, but that main block is only around 50M long, at Tai-3 there were two rows of accommodation of around 80M each. Unless it is configured differently where is the rest? It should stand out a mile, but I can't see anything anywhere. Other bits and pieces, vehicles on the pad also.
And if they hadn't built two pads where would that accommodation we can see on the Itumbula-1 pad have gone, left at Tai-3 maybe?
And Maxar seems to suggest that the roadway to Itumbula-2 was improved somewhat as long ago as the beginning of September, which was long before another pad was even thought about, so far as we poor shareholders are aware.
Itumbula-2 what appears to be the cellar seems to be still exposed, the rig appears not to be erected over it (as it would be dark otherwise) although there is clearly other equipment on that pad also, I assume part of that is the rig.
The "lay down" area now appears largely empty, as is Camp Rukwa.
It is to be hoped that we get some answers later this week, but pity the poor share price and those of us who hold the shares.
Closeup of Itumbula 1 and 2 -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53393484283/in/dateposted-public/
And if it wasn't for Sentinel we would have no idea of where all this was taking place, we'd just have to rely on a few grainy tweeted images.
A publicity shy company, who would have thought it?
Any more low key and the company could not be disting
Just for information.
These are the licence areas around Rukwa outlined in the December 2020 admission document.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53206195230/in/dateposted-public/
Note the unusual gap in licences in the middle - we never applied for that one, just to the East of Itumbula, possibly the most prospective licence around.
This is the licence map now
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53312737487/in/dateposted-public/
Since 2022 Kidunda have taken the "gap" licence and two of our other applications, Pemba one of our applications, and Noble most of the other.
This is Eyasi showing our "secret" applications and the dates of those. The deal with PURA/TPDC came about supposedly to resolve the issue of "overlapping licences since 2017".
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315420152/in/dateposted-public/
But the issue only really arose when we applied for the licences earlier this year. Noble also has overlapping licences, as have others, no PURA/TPDC agreement with them!
And this is the overlapping oil/gas licence area, with our new "secret" licences, and the 2D survey area which was carried out last Summer.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315769617/in/dateposted-public/
No conspiracies here!
This is all fact, but undisclosed. Thank goodness the Tz government isn't as secretive as Saint Lorna.
They're quite happy to publish the lot on their websites.
And at Eyasi PURA drilled 3 holes in 2019 using a water rig owned by the Tz government but could only get to 350M, the limit of the rigs.
If the Eyasi deal is still on the opportunity for the Tz govt to control an oil drilling rig must be tempting.
Atm you can get the entire company refurbished rig, equipment, licences £50M of seismic and drill results all for around £14M, bonkers.
The cashbox was paid for with 105M new shares, so nothing now to pay.
But at 1.5p 300M new shares just gets us around £4.5M, not much in this expensive drilling world.
Thinking about it the new company may not be to do with a cashbox, the last cashbox company was Jersey registered so you couldn't search against it, the new company is in plain sight.
My real concern is they may get involved with EHGOSF the European High Growth Opportunities Special Fund, it sounds great, it isn't.
Thats what happened at AAOG, they too had unsolicited offers of finance, they were simply vultures. The number of shares to be issued wasn't fixed, just the amount to be raised. Presented as a great deal as if the share price rose, you'd have fewer shares being issued and less dilution.
But the shares never did rise and holders were diluted to oblivion.
Then the remaining assets sold, and within a few months nothing left at all.
One for the AGM perhaps?
Along with all the other questions that are never answered, like why not tell us where the new pad is, the rationale for drilling there, has Camp Rukwa been abandoned, why has Tai-3 been abandoned, hardly anything left there, why has a new lay down area been set up, why has the rig been erected there when there is no drill pad, why has everything cost so much, why the Eyasi PURA deal, why the new licences were are not told about, why the secrecy, why are some of our old licences now in the hands of others, the status of the deal with Noble, why are our shares down 80% over 3 months, when Nobles are down around 25%, the list goes on...
I don't know may post more on that later, one of the requirements of the Tz govt was "Financial Capacity", do we have that anymore?
I'm thinking this is more a cashbox thing, adding to the 300M shares at the AGM.
600M @ 1p?
We'll find out soon enough.
But it all has a nasty whiff.
Maybe more on that whiff later....
Excellent find!
The one saving grace is it is a subsidiary of the BVI company in which we all hold shares.
However does it suggest some corporate activity? Also accounts revealed another new company set up this time in Mauritius, I think.
Maybe they want to transfer something back to the UK?
Not saying what it might be.
Company set up on 20-11-2023. That day the shares fell from 5.6 to 3.3p.
The further falls to 1.7p are unwarranted IMHO on the information we are presented, but some people somewhere know otherwise.
There is something out there that we do not know.
Just a periodic update from Sentinel, as of yesterday 7-12-2023.
This is an overview of our part of Rukwa
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53383342207/in/dateposted-public/
It has rained, but not unduly so at Tai and around Itumbula. The ground around those areas is a little greener, but there are still quite large areas of brown. Some of the rivers are clearly carrying a deal of muddy water, indicating fairly heavy rains to the west and south of where we are.
Around 25% cloud cover yesterday, Tai-3 can be seen, but unfortunately Itumbula is covered in cloud. A few hours later and we likely would have got a good view of what was going on there..
This is the view of Tai-3, yesterday compared with 17-11-2023.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53384699600/in/dateposted-public/
The most obvious thing is that the pad is now almost entirely empty!
I had thought that the accommodation and support services were to remain, but it has all gone. Almost down to the last nut and bolt.
This is from a tweet of 28-9-2023 showing what was there, looking from the north to south, so "upsidedown" -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53372150871/in/dateposted-public/
All that remains is some pipes in the NW corner of the pad, something near the helipad, a structure in the SW corner and the laundry in the NE corner.
Comparison with 6 days ago (already posted) -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53370185582/in/dateposted-public/
And this is Itumbula -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53384486728/in/dateposted-public/
Just missing out on being able to tell us anything useful. I've marked where I think the new equipment collection area is located. Perversely it is next to a small lake with appears to be a spring and source of 10% helium. Perhaps they should just bag it and not bother with the drilling bit. The equipment collection area is around 1.4km from the new pad, we are told, but Camp Rukwa is only 8km away, so I don't really see the point.
Also something al little odd around the main helium springs, but may not be related to us - probably not in fact.
May post more over the weekend - something along the lines of we were worth 50% more than Noble a few months ago, now we are a fraction of their value, after both had roughly similar drill results and now both require money.
How can this be?
It may lead down a very deep and possibly very nasty rabbit hole, and quite frankly I'm not sure that I can really be bothered and put myself (and everyone else) through it all. I'm not sure where it may lead in any event.
Unless Saint Lorna very soon pulls out a very large, friendly and minted rabbit from a very small top hat, I have a feeling we may shortly get caught between a rock and an impressively hard place.
I wonder if it is cheap enough yet, for either Noble or D3 or the Pulsar/ Kindunda crew.
They'd be fools if they're not running a slide rule over it.
A good rig would be worth a few million straight away.
I'm expecting Christmas cheer all round.
A malaise is affecting this board, but it is unwarranted.
Facts speak otherwise, although they may not as yet come from the company.
She will tell us when things are ready.
Sentinel has come up a bit of a mixed bag today but it is not a case of what we can see but what we cannot see which is important.
This is the general situation over our part of Rukwa -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53371407494/in/dateposted-public/
Around 50% cloud.
Tai-3 is visible, just, but Itumbula covered in a thick bank of cloud.
This is Tai-3 on 3 dates L - R 22-8-23 (Maxar as a control, so we know what we are seeing), 12-11-23 and today, 2-12-23.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53370185582/in/dateposted-public/
There have been major changes to the pad over the last few weeks. The rig is disassembled and is no longer present. A couple of objects may remain just south of where the rig once was. Much of the equipment which was laid out in a belt across the middle of the pad has also disappeared as has around half the accommodation containers. Some part of the equipment may have been moved to the outer edges of the pad, but it is clear most of what was there a few weeks ago is no longer there.
What may be an accommodation container can be seen on the roadway leading south of the pad, and may be in the process of removal.
For context this is from a tweet on 28-9-2023 showing the pad and accommodation looking from the north to south, showing the accommodation and pad area -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53220036266/in/dateposted-public/
The soil around the pad remains as of today brown and parched, indicating very little rain has yet fallen at this location.
So we can see that much of the equipment which was at the pad in mid November is no longer there.
As we cannot see Itumbula at present due to cloud we cannot for sure say where it has been moved to.
But the company says the rig was to be removed to Itumbula-2 by now and as we can no longer see it at Tai-3 it is a reasonable assumption that it has indeed been moved there and is now either rigged up or is in the process of that. Much of the support equipment and around half the accommodation appears to have followed. Maybe the existence of the presently unused Itumbula-1 pad has facilitated that.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Thus it is reasonable IMHO to conclude that Itumbula-2 is now host to the rig and much of the support equipment, even though we cannot actually see that is the case.
Next Sentinel pass 7th December 2023.
RJ, Sentinel is free, and is 'live' repeating every 5 days. That days image was taken earlier that day, the information is at the top of the image.
The high resolution Maxar service is paid for, and can be obtained most days, but to get the free Maxar images you have to wait for them to appear on Google Earth, which can take months to update.
Maybe she was confusing the completed Itumbula-1 pad with Itumbula-2?
Anyway I'm sure we'll get news soon, hopefully it will be the 'right' news.
RJ, yes in the interview LB said the civils were complete.
But two days later Sentinel clearly showed that the pad was at that time incomplete. And three days prior to the interview Sentinel showed that pad works were only just starting.
Maybe she got a bit ahead of herself.
" at least tweeting from the site with all the prep work that will necessarily be going on right now if they are about to drill, just like they were doing during Tai 3"
Ah ha, LW!
That is the key point.
You see with Tai-3 they weren't tweeting until the civils were well underway and much of the work actually almost complete.
Preparatory work for Tai-3 (with hindsight) could be seen on the ground via Sentinel around mid- May 23. I first posted a picture showing major civil works, roadway and pad construction, once their existence couldn't be ignored, on 12th June, with regular updates thereafter.
The company only announced that civils and pad construction were actually happening on 10th July, once the rig had entered the country.
The first tweet was 11th July - "The Company has already commenced the ground works for the construction of the Tai-C well pad, camp and access road at our He1 Rukwa site"
Tweets followed rapidly thereafter, but that tweet could have been issued at any time in the previous two months, and still have been true.
So Saint Lorna plays her cards close to her chest. Why she doesn't tweet now I don't know. On 18th November we could see the new Itumbula-2 pad under construction, pity it was cloudy on the last pass, but maybe Saturday's pass will show a completed pad . It may show more.
But it seems to me that she only tweets once something is almost complete, and then suggests that they have just started. Maybe it is a form of insurance, maybe it is under promising and over delivering, maybe it is just a bit of a game and she is playing with us - shareholders can play if they want to, I prefer to trust to Sentinel.
The same general situation exists in relation to Eyasi, although from the various clues one can make up various scenarios as to what is going on there. Evidence appears, things happen, we can see that - but Helium One remains silent.
So I think people can be forgiven for speculating what is going on. She is obviously waiting for something, and will no doubt tweet or RNS - "pad complete!"at some time.
What else she says is anyone's guess but Sentinel may provide a clue in around 48 hours.
Although it is becoming increasingly cloudy around our part of Rukwa, a good view could be had of Nobles Mbelele-2 pad today, looks like they may be derigging.