Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It looks like someone (possibly several people) went on a bit of a spending spree in the last hour of trading on Friday.
See what transpires Monday, if anything.
23-Feb-24 16:35:26 5.00 162,982 Buy* 4.00 5.50 8,149 UT
23-Feb-24 16:29:56 5.125 20,000 Buy* 4.00 5.50 1,025 O
23-Feb-24 16:29:33 5.125 9,570 Buy* 4.00 5.50 490.46 O
23-Feb-24 16:29:32 5.125 10,000 Buy* 4.00 5.50 512.50 O
23-Feb-24 16:29:07 5.00 10,000 Buy* 4.00 5.00 500.00 O
23-Feb-24 16:28:44 5.00 10,000 Buy* 4.00 5.00 500.00 O
23-Feb-24 16:25:47 4.96 10,000 Buy* 4.00 5.00 496.00 O
23-Feb-24 16:05:44 4.96 1,593 Buy* 4.00 5.00 79.01 O
23-Feb-24 15:59:30 4.50 100,000 Buy* 4.00 4.50 4,500 O
23-Feb-24 15:58:47 4.482 66,822 Buy* 4.00 4.50 2,995 O
23-Feb-24 15:57:50 4.332 3,000 Buy* 4.00 4.50 129.96 O
23-Feb-24 15:47:02 4.4318 80,000 Buy* 4.00 4.50 3,545 O
23-Feb-24 15:30:16 4.25 73,646 Sell* 4.50 5.00 3,130 O
23-Feb-24 15:30:16 4.26 -73,646 Unknown* 4.50 5.00 -3,137 O
23-Feb-24 15:30:16 4.26 73,646 Sell* 4.50 5.50 3,137 O
23-Feb-24 15:28:52 5.199 40,000 Buy* 4.50 5.50 2,080 O
23-Feb-24 15:25:23 5.00 15,000 Unknown* 4.50 5.50 750.00 O
23-Feb-24 15:25:21 5.50 18 Buy* 4.50 5.50 0.99 O
23-Feb-24 15:17:00 4.9898 25,000 Sell* 5.00 5.50 1,247 O
23-Feb-24 14:44:22 5.05 50,000 Sell* 5.00 5.50 2,525 O
23-Feb-24 14:44:10 5.359 2,435 Buy* 5.00 5.50 130.49 O
23-Feb-24 14:18:45 5.40 18,444 Buy* 5.00 5.50 995.98 O
23-Feb-24 14:02:32 5.26 71,000 Buy* 5.00 5.50 3,735 O
23-Feb-24 14:00:24 5.00 150,000 Sell* 5.00 5.50 7,500 UT
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.50 78 Buy* 5.00 5.50 4.29 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.50 96 Buy* 5.00 5.50 5.28 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.50 36 Buy* 5.00 5.50 1.98 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.50 181 Buy* 5.00 5.50 9.96 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.00 200 Sell* 5.00 5.50 10.00 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.00 27 Sell* 5.00 5.50 1.35 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.50 500 Buy* 5.00 5.50 27.50 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.50 1,000 Buy* 5.00 5.50 55.00 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.50 600 Buy* 5.00 5.50 33.00 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.00 100 Sell* 5.00 5.50 5.00 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.00 727 Sell* 5.00 5.50 36.35 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.50 90 Buy* 5.00 5.50 4.95 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.50 18 Buy* 5.00 5.50 0.99 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.00 50 Sell* 5.00 5.50 2.50 O
23-Feb-24 13:50:04 5.00 25 Sell* 5.00 5.50 1.25 O
23-Feb-24 13:49:06 5.29 99,055 Buy* 5.00 5.50 5,240 O
23-Feb-24 13:44:58 5.25 62,500 Unknown* 5.00 5.50 3,281 O
23-Feb-24 12:33:52 5.025 866 Sell* 5.00 5.50 43.52 O
23-Feb-24 10:05:09 5.29 945 Buy* 5.00 5.50 49.99 O
23-Feb-24 09:59:02 5.025 192 Sell* 5.00 5.50 9.65 O
23-Feb-24 08:48:55 5.30 9,339 Buy* 5.00 5.50 494.97 O
No reaction as yet to the award of management options in CPH2, at various prices but mostly the vast majority dependent on a share price of between 60p to 80p.
Current price around 10p, PRIM sitting on a big loss atm, but indicative of a direction of travel, perhaps.
PRIM remains unknown and unloved outside of a select few.
Hopefully that might change.
I think that is why it is taking a while to release the results, and it may be a while yet. I saw this interview as a fort holding exercise.
What they have here seems to be somewhat unique, and they aren't quite sure what it is. No doubt lots of number crunching and modelling going on.
My understanding is that it is not the reduction in temperature which releases the Helium but the reduction in pressure as it flows upwards.
LB mentioned it was not a conventional matrix, there is no permeability to be discussed, there is no reservoir to be modelled as such, the stuff is flowing directly out of the deep seated fault, and really from who knows where?
I'm not sure Helium One know. It could be from a number of km below surface.
Contrast that with Noble who are saying that they have a conventional shallow reservoir, which no doubt can be much more easily modelled.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53523716110/in/dateposted-public/
I would assume that SND, given their present predicament, will have received numerous and varied offers of finance/takeover terms.
Presumably Mr Curren is resisting selling out cheaply to some opportunist, whether they be large or small.
I would guess that he would wish, so far as is possible to maintain his present stake in the company, so is looking for an offeror who would be willing to enable him to do that, possibly the majority of the finance by way of interest bearing loan, say £4.5M, repaid over a number of years, with say an additional £1.5M via equity at around 15p.
The vulture funds would be unlikely to ever go for such terms but there may be some boutique outfit somewhere, who could see their way to making a killing from offering reasonable terms.
And Mr Curren would be able to maintain most of his 40% plus interest depending on how the matter were structured and financed overall.
Long term it would be very attractive, but the vulture funds work on too short a timescale.
Yes whilst the investment policy gives scope for investments in a wide range of sectors and technologies their recent focus seems to have been on green power generation, the returns for which recently have been very poor.
There is plenty of tech out there, which is doing well.
Take SND - UK high end chip design and manufacture - market cap - £10M. About to run out of cash, hence the knock down price, but if PRIM were to supply some cash and the company was rescued, on suitable terms, then the sky could be the limit, think ARM, NVIDIA.
Cash of at least £5.5M could give PRIM serious leverage, if used correctly.
Looks like there is more to come also, from this separate sale -
"A separate sale process will be conducted over the coming months following the closing of the Acquisition with the net proceeds from the sale of the FMI business to be distributed to Payapps shareholders as additional consideration, however, neither Payapps or Buyer are party to or responsible for such sale arrangements of FMI following the closing of the Acquisition. Primorus will issue further announcements in relation to the proposed disposal of the FMI business in due course"
Now what to do with all that cash?
DB, I'm not sure.
Maybe they think it safer to just leave the equipment in place as the heavy rains will start shortly.
However it could be they are intending to drill at that location again, if not now then starting maybe end April, once the dry season begins again.
I had been thinking they'll move to Eyasi. Maybe they will.
The Predator is good for 2500 metres. But Eyasi is upto 5000 metres deep before it reaches basement. Depending on where the targets are. Nobles drill is good for around 3600 metres, and if they're just testing the shallow targets at 2-300metres won't likely need a full sized rig for that.
But I hadn't expected to see everything still in place, hadn't actually expected to get such a clear view actually, after 2 months of cloud.
So I'm a bit intrigued by this set of events.
Due to recent problems with cloud cover Sentinel 2 imagery has been disappointing for a couple of months now.
However yesterday the Sun shone bright, and for the first time in many months Rukwa was (almost) cloud free.
This is what Sentinel revealed -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53541796950/in/dateposted-public/
To the uninitiated it just looks like a mass of browns and greens, however a bit of annotation reveals the sites of Tai-3 and Itumbula W and SE.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53540491272/in/dateposted-public/
The site of Tai-1 is just next to the green blob SE of Tai-3. The river in flood to the north is the Momba River.
Unfortunately one of the few places covered by cloud was Camp Rukwa (the original FOB) so we cannot see if there is any activity there, I suspect not, but cannot be sure.
Next is a closeup of Tai-3 -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53541371056/in/dateposted-public/
the left image is the last clear day 17-12-2023 and right, yesterday 20-2-2024. Little change there, and that black blob is probably just a stack of pipes. no activity at all over the last couple of months and all the equipment has been removed and parts of the pad are now overgrown with vegetation. It is affectively "abandoned", but not necessarily in a technical sense - when Tai-1 was abandoned it was totally erased within around a month of drilling ceasing, at Tai-3 we see the pad and roadway to it still in existence, ready for a revisit, with a bit of work, although I suspect no time soon.
Now the juicy stuff - Itumbula W and SE.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53540757182/in/dateposted-public/
The top image is yesterday, the bottom image 17-12-2024, again the previously last clear image.
Well not too much has changed over the last couple of months. These images are obviously pretty grainy, Sentinel is a land use tool, not really designed for detailed reconnaissance, but i will try to get more out of them than is represented by just the fuzzy images.
So in the above image at Itumbula W comparing the two images the white and black "blobs" appear roughly in the same places, the latest image shows the black blobs as slightly larger, as you would imaging after around a months drilling has taken place throwing oil and mud all over the place.
So what can we make of the black and white blobs?
Well unfortunately He1 has not provided us with any nice aerial images, unlike at Tai-3, and we don't have any recent spy sat resolution Maxar images to hand, so we have to rely on the bits that He1 presents us with.
So this is an image tweeted by He1 on 19-12-2024, compared with the ground features revealed by Sentinel -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53543626513/in/dateposted-public/
Cont/...
Part 2
Cont/...
The big white blob is accommodation/offices, the smaller white blob cement containers and the black blobs the rig and support equipment.
we know exactly where the well heads at both Itumbula w and SE are located as previous Sentinel imagery showed then being excavated here -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53542080135/in/dateposted-public/
Sentinel repeats every 5 days, but can't as yet, look through cloud.
Now He1 tweeted another even more interesting image to accompany the RNS of 7-2-2024 -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53543870581/in/dateposted-public/
Add an image from Sentinel you get this
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53543870941/in/dateposted-public/
And a bit of annotation, and you can see how the features in the tweeted image match those from the Sentinel satellite -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53544301885/in/dateposted-public/
And you can now see that as at yesterday, the accommodation/offices, the road oil tanker and various other pieces of equipment all still appear to be in place.
In the commentary in the image I suggested that I wasn't sure that the rig was still there, but having thought about it as all the support equipment appears still to be in the same place, the rig itself hasn't moved either. This can be contrasted with images from Tai-3 when as soon as drilling ceased all the equipment was obviously being dismantled and on the move. There is also some equipment between the rig and road tanker, looks interesting, not sure what it is as the image isn't good enough.
In fact the images provided by He1 relating to Itumbula are noticeable poorer and nowhere near as good as those for Tai-3. I wonder why?
Also it appears that whilst Itumbula SE has never been drilled it would appear that some sort of equipment also covers the cellar at that pad. I wonder what that is?
So the conclusion is that as at yesterdays date it would appear that the equipment on the Itumbula W pad has not been dismantled and the rig is still in situ.
I had thought the next "big" news would be concerning Eyasi, but maybe not.
If the rig is still there what is it doing?
a) nothing, waiting for the next drilling season?
b) waiting on disassembly?
c) testing the well?
d) getting ready to drill again - the weather is obviously reasonable at the moment?
And whilst were at it there is also some movement at Noble's Base Camp, around 90km NW of Itumbula, with new equipment arriving in the last couple of weeks and they've also dusted off the helipad.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53528643408/in/dateposted-public/
Interesting as they seem to be only planning some shallow drilling around the middle of this year, a pilot plant and not much else. Nobles pad remain and appear in a position to accept drilling equipment at short notice if required.
DJW, If you go back through my previous posts, from a few months ago, you'll see that the deal is already done.
All explained in excruciating detail.
And it is far more interesting than exchanging oil for helium or vice versa.
Ever wondered why a (very) small exploration outfit bought their own rig long before they ever found anything of value?
There is an election coming in Tanzania next year and the people generally, especially in the cities are far more interested in keeping the lights on then than finding some esoteric element in some remote area.
An oil find is what will ding their bell, and allow the governing party to retain power.
No reason to decamp here, been in for nearly 3 years, highs and lows, but I think we need a bit of a reality check.
This from The Citizen today, there is a $ crisis and Tz could run out of fuel.
https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/tanzania-in-crisis-no-electricity-sugar-and-dollars-4528102
Oil and Eyasi is far more important than the helium.
Well, I did say someone would correct me if I had got the wrong end of the stick.
Although the Tanzanian Mining portal does still show it as being an active licence.
But that area, and its surroundings, could therefore still be up for grabs by some enterprising outfit.
It looks to me as if they are very roughly short of around £4M pa.
Under the resolutions at the AGM a placing at 10p would get them around £800K.
Rights issue would get them much more, and preserve Mr Currens %.
They could do and EGM, or cashbox but I don't think that is his style.
So most likely loan (which they've had before), together with a rights issue.
Win-win big time if they were to pull that off.