Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Oh dear!! Someone losing money on a share?
Novelty.
Anyway.
My rationale for holding He1 - FWIW, DYOR, IMHO - this is high risk, high reward.
There is a real possibility of total failure of the project - some might say probability - the company is drilling in virgin territory for a pure helium source, something which hasn't been done before anywhere. They've raised circa £50m over the last several years, now worth c£25M.
If they find the gas big success. If not, well...
I still think my Eyasi '24 - oil/gas/helium JV with MOM/PURA/TPDC theory is in with a chance, and that is part of my rationale for remaining invested, apart from the chance/possibility of a discovery at Tai/Itumbula.
Theory has already been aired at length on 18-11-2023, so ago so won't go into the whole thing here.
No one pointed out the possible major defect with the theory - that I was conflating the "Strategic Partnership" referred to in the February 2019 Tz Government Eyasi-Wembere presentation with the "Cooperation and Joint Development" Agreement to develop Eyasi-Wembere signed by He1 and MOM/PURA/TPDC on 13th October 2023.
But they sound pretty similar to me.
But what intrigues me and makes me believe it might be a go-er is that He1 have never said
a) they've applied for 2000sq km of new licences at Eyasi and been approved (almost doubling the licence area),
b) done a deal with the Tz government to look for oil and gas at Eyasi
both of which we know to be true.
It also fits in with buying the rig (why, it isn't ever going to be a second revenue source unless you want to risk bankruptcy?) , DM's departure, and I believe now, haste to get on with drilling at Itumbula/Tai in December and January 23/4.
Of course getting a discovery at I/T would boost the shares allowing decent funds to be raised and I'd say was really essential to getting the Eyasi project off the ground.
But what if they couldn't get that discovery? Could they raise just on the back of a JV with the Tz Govt and oil/gas/helium at Eyasi? Might be a hard sell. But we would put in the rig, can't see the Tz Govt putting in a load of cash, but maybe they would put something in/pay for services?
But who would be taking the bigger risk, us or them, or is the "secret" Eyasi deal a desperate move by the Tz Govt or a big vote of confidence in He1?
Tai results were disappointing, but maybe the Tz Govt also thinks the helium is there.
Maybe.
Eyasi '24 - it won't wait.
As a few people have obviously not seen the previous Sentinel image before, I thought I'd post this.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53347715327/in/dateposted-public/
which gives a better indication of the local geography.
I've actually names the well site Itumbula-3, as I had another candidate, but this will likely actually be Itumbula-2.
The cellar is actually towards the lower end of the field below the curser, and falls directly on a 2021 seismic line.
That is how you know the location is correct, and the seismic lines are lined up correctly. The latest Sentinel image shows that the two small trees in the field have disappeared, as have the clump of trees marking the accessway from the track into the field. The track has now been surfaced and provides access to the drill site. They appear to have moved closer into the fault system, and there are extensive helium emission seeps around 1km to the NW of the pad area.
Let's hope they have got it right this time.
She said "Civils have already been completed" That was 20-11-2023.
But Sentinel tells a different story - this is yesterday, 22-11-2023 (right side image)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53349003441/in/dateposted-public/
The two pads are likely to end up the same size, so the central part of the new pad for Itumbula-2 has been completed, and it looks like the cellar dug out prior to cementing. Then presumably the area on the periphery will be widened, so they are both the same size. The roadway of about 500 metres was put in around 10 days ago.
It looks to me they've done the central bit of the pad so they can do the cellar quick, and then will edge it towards the roadway and at the back, suggesting time pressure. At Itumbula-1 they completed the pad, then did the cellar.
So depends what she means by "civils", if she means the roadway, yes that was completed last week, but they are only midway though the pad.
I'm expecting the next Sentinel pass 27-11-23 (clouds permitting) to show the completed pad, and a big black splodge in the middle which will be the rig.
Maybe she is in such a hurry, she is getting ahead of herself.
And no tweets, odd?
We sure need those now.
Festive period?
Very Christian/Western-centric.
Tanzania is around 60% Christian/35% Muslim.
So not everyone will consider the period a holiday.
They are getting on with that pad tout-suite, so it doesn't look like they'll go hell for leather doing the pad (nothing existed two weeks ago, now it is nearly finished, roadway and all), moving the rig etc and then down tools for a month.
They appear to be under severe time pressure, including drilling in the rain, but maybe there is a reason?
The authority to issue shares at the 2023 AGM was scrapped, to much fanfare, at the AGM by IS.
he trumpeted it saying - "see we don't need cash" - "it is impossible for us to raise now, we don't have the authority!"
Then they did that cake box/cash box thing and the shares, and the managements reputation has never recovered.
Not only was the AGM brought forward, but so were publication of the accounts.
Just thought I'd give my interpretation of where we might be drilling at Itumbula-2.
We seem to be moving deeper into the fault system.
Usual caveats apply DYOR, IMHO etc.
They give us very little to go on so numbering a faults etc, is provisional. This is the result of a number of overlays on Google Earth so some definition lost.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53351143405/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53349819357/in/dateposted-public/
If they moved any further to the SW then they could end up bypassing the Karoo altogether, and head straight for the basement.
This is being built lightning fast.
20 days ago there was nothing there
15 days ago - no image
10 days ago - outline of a roadway track
5 days ago - start of civils and site clearance
0 days ago - completed pad and cellar dug out ready for concreting
Does anyone think they are going to do lightning civils, probably completed by this weekend, rig up starting probably Monday - and then just stop?
Unlikely - spud in 14 days, drilling at AGM, then...
Geology - sits on the A-A' line from the end of august presentation.
Begs the question of why build the Itumbula-1 pad at all?
They did stop work on it from around 25-9-23 to 15-10-23 but then went ahead again.
the Itumbula pad is really recent, within the last 10 days.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53349490325/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53349274758/in/dateposted-public/
Sentinel this afternoon.
It is here, Itumbula-2.
Complete by end of weekend?
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53349003441/in/dateposted-public/
Land Grab going on in Tanzania at the moment, but not of the 19th Century variety fortunately.
"▪️✔️STAMICO Projects Named The Ministry of Mines has auctioned about 441 licenses for the exploration of important and strategic minerals and 46 licenses for the mining of these minerals, which are opportunities for investors to enter into joint ventures with the license holders to develop them and finally establish mines. This was stated on November 21, 2023 by the Assistant Commissioner of Mines from the Ministry of Mines, Engineer Ally Samaje, when giving a Ministry presentation on the first day of the Business Forum between the UK and Tanzania, where he explained to the audience about important minerals and strategy in Tanzania, the opportunities available in investment in these minerals and the Government's strategies in attracting investment. Engineer Samaje said that among the licenses, the National Mining Corporation (STAMICO) has projects for the exploration of important minerals of lithium, graphite, rare earth elements and copper which are in various stages of development and which investors are welcome to cooperate with STAMICO to develop them to the stage of mining for the benefit of both parties"
https://twitter.com/Hakingowi/status/1727290084595056869
Needs translating, as I think it is Swahili.
Can't see LB in the audience, but she needs to slam in those applications!
And then tell us about the "secret" applications and any new ones.
Just to follow up on earlier posts regarding the Itumbula-2 location.
I had earlier speculated that Itumbula-2 could be next to the Itumbula Helium Springs as some civils work appeared to have been conducted there.
Overall view of the area.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53348358196/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53345270331/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53345370962/in/dateposted-public/
It was a bit off the wall for various reasons notwithstanding the lack of seismic.
however there is another location of interest. I had earlier mentioned an unfinished roadway running NW of the Itumbula-1 pad location, and this looks more interesting than I first thought.
It is here,
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53348825109/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53348561261/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53347715327/in/dateposted-public/
I'm variously calling it Itumbula-2/3 depending on what mood I'm in.
It has advantages, close to a fault line and on two seismic lines.
But LB said in her last interview 20-11-2023 "Civils already been completed"
Sentinel on 17-11-23 showed that the civils appeared to have just been started, following completion of the roadway. From the speed of their previous works it would be several weeks before they were complete. Rush job anyone?
Sentinel this evening may give more, but clouds may intervene.
Don't worry too much about the bridges, one looks a bit dodgy from our point of view but they are all in much better condition than they were a couple of years ago.
If LB thinks transport will take a week then she know it will be done in that time.
Don't forget they've used this road to transport most things from Camp Rukwa to Tai-3 already this year.
The distance from Tai-3 pad to the main road is around 2.5km.
From the main road junction to the Itumbula-1 junction is around 16km.
To Itumbula-1 junction to that pad is around 3.5km.
But - if I've got the Itumbula-2 pad location right (not 100% certain, but) that pad is immediately off the main road itself, so from the Tai-3 road junction it is around 18km.
There are a couple of bridges but they appear in good repair.
Some transport equipment was probably always retained at Camp Rukwa, no good having your own rig if you can't move it, so they probably have sufficient on hand in order to be able to do the job. Grab a tractor unit and off you go!
Looks like they may also have a tractor unit there also.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53199207724/in/dateposted-public/
I did used to think, a couple of years ago, that someone could be building up a big stake, unbeknownst to anybody - but I've now got rid of such foolish notions.
The share price tells its own story.
Not impossible that someone is building, but unlikely.
However I do hear rumours that there are those who think He1's licences are good (very good), are looked upon admiringly by others and if there is one slip up too many on the part of He1 then they will be pounced upon, and the licences prised away.
Make of that what you will. Possibly just tittle tattle.
"Yet across the gulf of space, minds that are to our minds as ours are to those of the beasts that perish, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarded this earth with envious eyes, and slowly and surely drew their plans against us"
Across the gulf of Lake Rukwa, maybe.