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It’s not the MMS. It the 6 months until flow testing. It’s a great RNS and shouts to investors to come in for the flow testing….

Because flow testing is at least 6 months away. Flow testing will bring the investors back. This is now significantly de risked for that but no urgency required from an investment perspective until flow testing starts.

I don’t think the disappointing SP action has much to do with the potential for this well at all. It’s because the market knows flow testing is a ways off. I’m hoping we see this up on a positive wire logging outcome but expecting even great results to get a muted response in the medium term. OK we might get a decent rise if it’s really good but it’s the run up to flow testing that then really moves this.

How do mm's play with placement shares? They don't have any placement shares.

Massive apologies. They did wire log Merlin 2. The duster was declared after that.

Can't figure the selling at the mo. Could just be that investors are de risking regardless of whether there was a increase in SP running up to the results for this current drill. Chances are better following yesterdays RNS IMHO.

It's a straight forward punt now. I bought last week and did think I would top slice before they reach full depth. That doesnt look like it will happen but nothing would surprise me tomorrow with the full depth RNS anticipated. If we go to wire logging (did not do that last time) surely that will pit upwards pressure on the SP?

A bit like you Dai. I tried to understand what the RNS meant in more detail and looked into the science bit. The Hickory RNS indicates better chance of success than the Merlin one. Of course the Merlin RNS was at the fully depth stage and was followed by a duster RNS a few days later. We should get another RNS at full depth and further analysis of the shows.

“Immediate and streaming” and “potential hydrocarbon pay” caught my eye in addition to your observations.

Nothing is uncertain but it looked good yesterday. I think the market is in a risk averse mood on exploration in general hence the de risking over the last week.

GLA

dai2belts. There is indeed :)

Comparison of the wording used for todays RNS compared to that used for last years Merlin II drill:

Today:

"The presence of hydrocarbons was evidenced by fluorescence under ultraviolet light in cuttings samples. Reservoir permeability was also indicated by "immediate and streaming" blue-white "cuts" when solvent was applied. Elevated C3-C5 mud gas readings were observed as well as high resistivity signatures and crossover of neutron density curves, providing further indications of potential hydrocarbon pay."

Last Year:

"Initial observations of LWD logs and drill cuttings collected throughout the drilling operations revealed target intervals are thicker than those encountered in Merlin-1 as anticipated pre-drill, with oil shows noted under white light in the three target Nanushuk reservoirs. Fluorescence has also been observed in numerous samples when placed under an ultraviolet light, an indication of oil presence. Additionally, when solvent was applied to the fluorescing samples, "moderately fast" to "immediate and blooming" "cuts" were noted, the speed of which is often a proxy for sample permeability."

Wire logging is more detailed assessment. Logging as they go is enough to validate whether it is worth continuing with the drilling. Good so far!

Rhambo. You think they can get a discount from the drill company by deciding not to drill KUP? Is the cost not already set?

Would think any changes to the drill programme that happen in the available window are strategic rather than cost based. It's also true that perhaps they don't have time to go that far with the drilling and complete wire logging before the season ends?

HeadSprinGuy. You are correct of course. I do think this is a better prospect all round which is why I invested last week. But Also aware of the risks. Very good luck to us all!

Check out RNS's related to the Merlin wells in March last year to get a better view of the risk profile here. Nothing is certain and hence the market can be really sniffy at what looks like good news. Each step is not guaranteed to succeed no matter what the outcome of each previous step is.

Duster RNS's are cold. The one on Merlin after wire logging what just very matter of fact after reaching target depth with plenty of reason to be positive.

Like I say - my glass is half full but I will de risk wherever I can on SP spikes. Likely won't get the chance on this one so it really is fingers crossed for wire logging at this stage.

They won't do the flow tests if they don't see real evidence that they have a commercial discovery - so there is a very real potential step change in de risking the asset IF they can demonstrate that in the next couple of week. So that would certainly add SP value.

Market will largely wait for flow testing as it's not possible to value a discovery without that. That 6 - 12 month wait will feel very long indeed. But we could be trading in an improved range if the current operation continues to go well.

My glass is half full. Sounds positive. They can't very well do anything else other than tell us what they see and they are doing that and it looks good so far.

proposed flow testing of the Hickory-1 exploration well which is scheduled for the 2023 / 24 Alaskan winter operational season.

Early days. Either shows are priced in or ....

RNS says 3-5 days drilling left so if there is cash waiting to come in before then there is still time for that to happen. Maybe get the SP moving Thursday/Friday.

The SP is not a factor of how many buys and sells there are in a day.

Interim Results statement should not include new news. Statements are deliberately written to not infer anything new.

If the company was in late stages of contract negotiation this isn't the RNS to say so. Separate RNS for new rig news. In my view they have this setting up with Noble and we will get RNS saying contracts completed because anything less than that creates a negative narrative for both companies.

Recent RNS says:

Reserves are based on a potential full-field development on the producing 352 acre Cinnabar Project involving 5 further development wells with one well drilled in 2023, two in 2024 and two more in 2025. It also assumes well recompletions when appropriate to produce separate production zones. The final development plan remains subject to a number of matters including Board approval and funding availability.

Then goes on to say that the Board is looking at the way forward.

So MSMN have told us exactly where they are and confirmed that they are in the planning phase for the 5 drill. They can't publish a plan that they haven't created yet.

It will come.

A trade would be nice!

Seems this sector is very flat at the moment.