Member Info for skid35

Surprised.

The market is still lacks confidence in kromek and their ability to deliver against want appears to be a great and growing opportunity. It's not just the hopefully temporary nature of the provision, as a shareholder the underlying red flags in contractual and commercial control will take a few reporting rounds to reestablish credibility. The lack of further provisions was a plus.
Business returning to "near normal levels" is nothing to really to write about. We need the BOD to deliver revenue growth in a high margin high fixed cost business to get bottom line performance.

The companies they have chosen as the comparitor group make this valuation pretty much useless. Siemens / Philips et c are mature companies with many service and product revenue in the billions, cannot compare to a developing company such as kromek.

Looking forward to further rns to move the company forward which can have a material impact on the share price. The opportunities there, up to the BOD to grab it.

Surprised / ask.
Yes, hence my comment that the contract is alive and is not a permanent hit rather than provision.
The only real takeaway from the limited financials is the very poor cash conversion, would like to see a detailed balance sheet as debtor days is probably around 1 1/4 years.
At the moment the share price is based on the historic performance of the board with their inability to manage large contracts profitably against high fixed assets and capitalised IP, talking a good game and not delivering. As a medium term shareholder it is the same every half year.

Hope the webinar is available
Good luck to all shareholders - whether you are medium term like me or just looking to make a quick turn.

No real surprise from me.
If you look back on my communication I said we would need confirmation on the recovery of the aroc deal for this to move up. The cash from aroc will be needed to support working capital on other projects, it is good the contract is still 'alive' but more certainty is required. I hope the new cfo has bought in some commercial and contractual rigour.
If we get confirmation I think we will move up to 18-22p, until then it will probably drift around in the low medium teens.
Medium / long term the opportunity is still there, if not improving. All up to the BOD if they have the ability to execute and deliver, but I think we will only know in a 2-4 year time frame.
As someone else said this share does tend to have a regular boom / bust cycle, so still one for the traders but hopefully with an upward trajectory.
I will continue to hold, still believe in long term value but the BOD need to show they can deliver, which they haven't to date.

All
- I am tending to ignore the p&l as the period under consideration is just a complete one off.
- From what I can see cash conversion remains an issue, would like to see the balance sheet as debtor days must be getting to a year and a quarter / half.
- Unsure why they report ebitda, pretty irrelevant in a company such as kromek.
- Completely silent on the reversal of the provision which ST and the board where confident on a reversal, either during the period or in the 2 1/2 months post period. This is important not just for the provision itself, but also on the backlog from this contract.
- Good news on no further exceptional items.

As usual the company appears to have great prospects and pipeline, I would like to see them put out their expectations for this year as a commitment to shareholders.
Look forward to more detail on the call, especially the potential to reverse the provision in the current financial year.

Good luck, hope this doubles as £100 gets a bell of a lot of lego.

Apologies for the double post. The first one went awol so reposted!

Blue.
Was hoping from you initial posts you would be a good poster, despite the information being publicly available and relatively basic. I work in commercial finance across Europe in the SaaS / software sector but lack some of the detailed technology understanding which I was hoping to find on the board.

From this email I can see you are a very inexperienced investor who is probably playing with his £50 Christmas money from his nan.

I'll keep an eye on how the company develops as it is very interesting proposition.

Blue.
I think you deeply overestimate your ability to move the market in this share.
As you mention zak mir has recommended in this time period, not that I am his greatest fan, which may carry more weight.

- really surprised at the Blackwood gin growth, has disappeared from the Sainsbury's stores round our way about 9 months back.
- I think it is targeted well above Gordon's / bombay but below the more premium brands. I do prefer the old stubby bottle than the current packaging, but purely my view which is probably completely wrong. It does have a great taste and does taste more expensive, my go to at this price band is Brecon (primarily to support Welsh business based on my heritage as well as taste).
- Sion Edward from Warner Edwards has a great reputation. These look a fantastic addition to the range and in time to hopefully enjoy the summer.
- Great portfolio now covering gin / vodka / rum. Hope the lunacy of credit does not halt export markets.
- Looking forward to the full update and hopefully more granular detail, which is usually not provided.

Little top up with the fall, couldn't resist. Looking forward to the results update.

Agree with a dog rather than bluerill here at the moment, on my watch rather than buy list but time will tell.
I am on some good boards with opinions and background knowledge provided, would hope this board has this good sense going forward as without much trading history of is easy just to move to childishness.
Would like to see further trading or customer wins before stepping in, even at lower prices. The blue chip nature of bms is a good sign, and the market seems really interesting.
Unfortunately little in the way of Gartner or market commentary - this does work both ways as an under researched sector, before they rise, can be a good place for future winners.
Will follow and visit the board on a regular basis.

Shandy.
On blackwoods, a great tasting gin which tastes like it should cost more (at this level, and with my Welsh heritage, Brecon is my choice at this level).
Top end is really crowded and the blackwoods bottle and packaging really doesn't stand out against some very well presented competitors - I actually prefer the old stubby bottle. I think they are targeting well as a slightly more expensive (2-3 quid) than Gordon's and bombay.
Blackwood has disappeared from local Sainsbury's (East berkshire) for sometime now, the growth was therefore a surprise but deeply impressive.
The rum / gin and now vodka product line gives a good wide portfolio in a market where trends come and go. Looking forward to the full update.

Good numbers
- Suprised on the growth of Blackwood which did appear to have faded from some supermarkets in recent quarters. Can only assume this was a promotion with one supermarket or amazon?
- Always amazed that the company continually develops their portfolio. I only hope that all the s### can be substantially behind us late spring.
Hopefully some price traction this morning.

We had a trading update on 3rd Jan at the start of this year for the prior year. Wondering why we don't have one yet?

1. The vagueness in the rns and annual / interim reports are not guidance. Look at the guidance a US listed company provides on a quarterly basis of a narrow revenue range, eps, expect tax rates et c for the next quarter and full year - this is guidance.
2. I don't believe the company should produce this anyway a. Current economic environmentincluding exchange rates b. Where they are as an early stage company c. They are currently very reliant on how good their partners etc rather than everything being under their direct control.
I am glad we do not have a board ramping or overselling the company (apart from the chair mans interview a couple of months ago which I found very amateurish - he would not make a great poker player). Soh interviews are very product / commercially focused with very little on financials, deliberately and correctly so.
3. Their internal current year / next year forecasting (which I expect is monthly or twice monthly) will be flexible to account for 2 above, they should not provide a market Update on every slight change of assumptions of revenue or costs. As an example just look at the strengthening of the pound in the last month.
As I have said previously I do not have a clue whether, as an example, the new operations head starting Jan 20 was in the forecast twelve months ago - just because it's a new head does not mean it is a change. I would have thought this was always in the plan when a certain level of revenue was achieved.

As I say, wait for the update and following annual report. I hope soh also does an investor zoom as well.

Wool.
- The rns on the 24th does relate to the 'future' which could mean 2021 or 2025.
- As has previously been stated by other posters the new heads will not impact 2020.
- As I have stated divisions can all be profitable without the company being profitable.

Having said that I am very hopeful on results across the lines of the p&l for both 20 and 21. If you take out the stbx price increase impact the share price of the underlying business has not really budged much in the !last six months.

I don't know what your average buy price is (assume between 80 and 100p ?), I am just in profit but will hold for a considerable time.
Hopefully the rns will provide you with the facts to provide reassurance for you to continue to hold - although they tend to be very cautious in their outlook I hope the revenue growth and ability to take this to profit will show their is considerable value here.

Agree. I think I showing positive fcf ( excluding stbx proceeds) is probably just as, if not more, important than profit
Coming from the IT sector all contracts for royalties are structured for quarterly reporting, invoicing and payment. Surely they are aware of the amounts for q1-3, or is there a stepped pricing based on volume for the year ?

Wool.
- I don't believe there has been an rns on expectations for '21 profit. The nearest we have been is the chairman's statement that he is looking for all three divisions to be profitable for '20 (rather than '21). As I have said previously this can be taken in different ways - what profit are they looking at (ebitda etc?) And ignores the large has costs, profit on sale of stbx etc.
- I expect these heads and costs have always been in the 21 plan for one or two years ago if revenue was proceeding as expected, therefore if an expectation for profit from say 6 months ago would not change just because they are hired.
- Elrico should not receive any information that you or I have, all communication should be via an rns so all shareholders are treated equally. The short chairman's interview sometime in q4 showed a massive degree of confidence without any numbers, something I felt was inappropriate.
- I am not sure what you mean by "steadying the ship" - it's not as if the share price is tanking or are having a rights issue, there is a timetable for communication and they should not release financials which have not at least gone through initial audit and sign off.

Looking forward to the rns (mid feb based on last year's 6 weeks after close). They do not tend to have much in the way of forward estimates, with the world as it is I can't see this changing.

Wool.
Update this time last year was 6 weeks after year end, so an rns mid feb.
From last year forward guidance does not have a great level of financial detail, primarily a commercial update with vague guidance. I think this is prudent not to set expectations.
Elrico should simply not have this detail, it should only be released via an rns as it can move the market.

Oioi.
Why the hell would anyone want to take over drum?
Key points.
1. Will they get out of real estate as their holding is relatively illiquid, if they get out what haircut are they prepared to take. Will this be a short, medium or long term goal.
2. Will they have further rights issues. At the moment they simply don't have the firepower. Having such a high cost base for a 1-2m market cap doesn't make sense.
3. Further investments in acuity, yes I think so. Surprised now active they are in management of the company.
4. Further investments in other companies. Having one investment makes zero sense, issue at the moment there is a lot of money chasing some really poor quality Private IT assets - so real issues identifying opportunities and then not paying through the nose. Also drum does not have a history as a supportive long term investor compared to other listed companies in this space.
Anyway, will be interesting to follow.