Member Info for skid35

Larus, given up on understanding this, OPTI now well up with SBT X pretty flat.

Thanks, impressive then. More importantly seemingly a geographic and vertical market spread.
I don't know what multiple of arr a standard saas business is valued at, assume differs between UK and us.

Looking forward to when 5G selling has stopped and we have a "stable" market, the market has absorbed a hell of a lot of shares and is on a rising trendline so should be good when we don't having this constant selling into the market.
I hope we will look back on the daily few pence up and down as a historic blip fairly shortly. I have stopped buying as of a week or so ago, no cash / isa allowance used / wary of being even more overweight than I am / no other shares I want to sell.

Thanks for the numbers on acuity, although I don't know how he would come by these?
If correct shows incredible progress and value for saas company, pipeline states can sometimes be a little misleading and it would be good to have a weighted pipeline number as well. A pity drumz is not a larger or majority holder in this business.
Had a little too up yesterday from divs elsewhere, will continue to do so at this level as they are received.

Interesting thing here is the judges working for idc, frost and Sullivan etc, good stuff.

Good luck to sbtx holders, a number of you took a risk and it looks to be paying off handsomely.
I do find it a little pathetic making it a constant competition between the two, different companies / levels of risk / stages in development and, at the moment, very different share price market dynamics.
As an opti shareholder I have been very disappointed with the share price, even with want should be a rocket from their sbtx holding, and have been critical of I R communications but there has been good progress.
Good luck to skin holders, hopefully your news this week will get opti moving.

Unsure whether it has been a conscious decision to reduce the number of rns this year, very little in the way of new partners geographic or product expansion etc.
Hope we will get a decent update shortly.

I am always unsure what the market looks at in valuing a company, at the lower end of market cap always seems a bit of a lottery. At current prices the rump of opti excluding skin seems to be 20% of its value a couple of months ago and about 5% of a couple of years ago, despite clearly moving forward (both in actual and potential sales) although probably not at the pace forecast.
At the moment I believe it is deeply undervalued, time will tell but a detailed, accurate trading update rns should get this moving to at least the 60s.

I really thought I was joking about tobin raiding his kids piggy banks.
With the size of the last buy a few days after the other I think I probably not the mark.

Moss.

For others on the board please read page 10 on the annual report.
"Entrepreneurial small to medium sized companies...."
"... made their access to sufficinet financial support more difficult"
So taking very large long term contracts in China with back ended cash where you are aware their credit is problematic , and applying aggressive revenue recognition.

As an accountant , also worth understanding the early payment discount in the same results and work out the interest rate inherent within this, incredible.

Anyway I believe this share does have the ability to go up pretty quickly on order news, just is out whether they can execute to the p&l.

If you are an IC subscriber and are able to search all of STs recommendations over a 3 year period and then compare to the outcome worth doing so.

Older, good to have an outsider point.
I'm the opposite of you with no direct holding in sbtx but should hopefully share in its gains. The current share price history is not pretty, as you say absolutely terrible if you take out SBTX.
- On a daily / weekly basis OPTI is now very decoupled from the value in SBTX, we have seen this in the past with real pricing anomalies even in massive companies such as racal / vodafone.
- OPTI has a very leveraged p&l, with a high % of revenue gains going through to profit, I think last year was fairly transformational in becoming breakeven / profitable.
- I am still a holder at a slight loss at the moment. Looking for an update to provide detail on business and opportunity to take the share price higher.
- Hoping in a year or two an SBTX dividend so the precise value is gained by OPTI shareholders.

Viable,
The last one , rns 29th October. The link as you well know is for the new cfo, damaging disinformation?
" pursuing other opportunities" blah blah, asked to leave. Rns very clear in calling him out as in house counsel as well as cfo and responsible for the mess.
I am not sure the average investor understands just how unusual the level of provision was in relation to the companies size - if I remember correctly it was about 18 months worth of revenue. No cfo / in house general counsel could really stay on after that total debacle.
As moss below states as a qualified accountant used to contract accounting it is very difficult to understand the incredible scale of that mess, and how it was allowed to increase to such an extent.

Moss,
From what I read between the lines the contracts are very back ended in terms of invoicing and after that cash collection, with difficult acceptance criteria made even worse under covid. Therefore even without delivering they were recognising revenue as a proportion related to costs incurred, it clearly got to a point where non invoiced receivables were getting to a ridiculous £m number with no understanding of when they would be invoiced and the auditors stepped in.
If you read the interim and final accounts you can see a few hints beforehand in the notes and explanations, this also includes the notes that the customers aren't that credit worthy.
Contract accounting far too aggressive for this level of risk.
If you read kromeks communication of the cash raise in 2017 before the last one it's all the same bluster on immediate massive opportunity etc, followed by not a lot.

I was hoping the 15p level would be a low with positive news moving this to the twenties, both new profitable business and the provision reversal.
I agree their does tend to be a lack of urgency with kromek, but still hoping for the best.

Thanks aqua, hopefully a positive week.
On growth there is a real need to split out h1 and h2 and compare to previous years.
With the information we currently have, subject to final results, growth was anemic in h2 after a fantastic h1 which is a worry as it has been swept under the carpet and not commented upon.
Hopefully enough irons in the fire and portfolio of existing and new opportunities to enable growth to recontinue.
As I've said previously a more consistent IR communication both in timing and content would be really welcome, understanding this is a micro cap with limited IR resources.

Moss.
Very clear from "the stock remains on kromeks balance sheet.and in its UK facilities." That ST really has no clue how contract accounting works as without the provision the stock would have been in UK facilities - and really ignore the key underlying control points.
- the contracts were clearly very back ended on acceptance criteria to be able to invoice, with collection even later - but revenue recognised non the less well before this.
- In kromeks annual reports of confirms contracting entities were small and lines of credit were unknown through the contract life.
- Using contract accounting is very aggressive in such circumstances. No surprise the cfo was sacked, responsible as the in house legal counsel for contract / commercial management and then marking his own homework with accounting treatment.
The fact that ST is analysing numbers he clearly doesn't understand is worrying.

Agricore.

A lot to discuss in your first ever post.
As a long term holder hoping for the best here, but best to stick to the facts.

- Assume you mean the 11th may rns rather than the 12th. There is no explicit confirmation on the provision release, but reading between the lines this is infered I assume waiting audit approval.
- As a qualified accountant I'll be a little pendantic, as a provision release it doesn't impact gross margins but agree goes straight to the bottom line.
- Really haven't a clue where you work out net assets from, even assuming the provision release and cash raise.
- When an IP lead, high margin ,high growth company looks to asset value rather than future earnings to value the company something is wrong.
- With poor long term contracts which have very poor cash flow, contact accounting is very aggressive from a revenue recognition perspective especially where you haven't done the basics of or ignore credit assessments.

- Repeat customer wins, this needs to be incremental not merely a continuation of existing revenues.
- the company has yet to show it can become profitable and cash positive on additional revenue, history shows an unfortunate failure to execute and deliver.
- A comparison to novacyt is just wrong, different business models, sectors with novacyt being a once in a lifetime occurance.

- "I'm not sure investors have realised this accounting point". This is very condescending to investors assuming they are thick.
- ST has been consistently wrong over 3-4 years on kromek, in the twenties constantly calling the thirties and forgetting what he forecast a quarter ago. An ST recommendation on the short term is self fulfilling as investors jump on, in the medium - long term he has been constantly and consistently wrong on kromek.

Anyway, as a shareholder hope you're correct.

A lot of chatter and expectation on the sbtx board for next week, based on prior price movements unsure of any impact but will be interesting for sure.
Would be nice for some info and price movement from what opti are doing directly rather than shareholdings. Looking forward to updates to see rates of growth with final numbers for h2 last year and expectations for this year.

Roller.
- I applied for my base allocation thinking this couldn't go much lower, and to take my average buy price down.
- The good news is that this can quickly go up 20-30% in a few days with the right news, or dare I say yet another ST write up plugging the hell out of this yet again (after about a dozen plugs in the 20s / 30s hoping even a stopped clock is right twice day). Would love to have had one of the guys from meggitt running kromek, this would have been 50p plus.
- Like many longer term holders a little underwater, I have come to the decision to sell on the next uplift which may be on orders rather than actually making a return from what they are selling. Although this does have room to move to c 25-30p, I have decided not to hang around and put money elsewhere. Knowing my luck it will fly after I sell.
Good luck to all holders, after I sell (whenever this may be) will continue to follow the company to see how it goes - it would be nice having this as a great British success story.

Hi draft.
One of the few companies of this type where the asset value is probably above the share cap, kcr valued at share price rather than underlying value and acuity valued at buy price.
Correct, will find it difficult to offload kcr at anything like underlying value.
I think with the number of spacs chasing every private tech company in the UK value is very hard to find, so europe might be a natural choice to look.

Traintracks.
The early history of computing is manchester, a global leader well ahead of leading us universities, similarly today with graphene.
As well as being the global centre of creativity with the greatest bands ever.

Set,
It's not just the buys that strike me here. It does seem that every time tobin gets some spare cash it goes straight into BOOM, I expect he has raided his kids piggy banks.
His desperation to buy is a great sign. In hindsight stupidly top sliced but still have a nice holding, a bit of stupid psychology stopping me buying back at a higher price than I sold.

Fevertree numbers show the market is still very buoyant. With new products distil should outgrow the market significantly.
Nice to be a holder here, I was looking to sell but believe further growth lies ahead.