Member Info for skid35

On 1 you could have a position where they issue new guidance (say in October / nov) where they expect to beat revenue by 10% but this will impact profit 100% (very dependent on how far they are near the breakeven point).
At this point the market will extrapolate this into the following year, this is when the price will rocket.
As usual, all with the "hopefully" priviso.

Tracy -
You are missing the two key messages here for investors
1. Margin, with this model just incredible. The impact of such a scalable model straight the the bottom line on the share price will be incredible. The share price rise will come when they issue an RNS that they are blowing prior revenue guidance out of the water after a conservative forecast, as this will go the the bottom line.
2. Cash, working capital requirements absolutely minimal - I can see why in the update they were okay for cash as this model would fund other lines of business which may need working capital.

Aqua, absolutely. All about getting larger partners with real reach to scale the business. Hopefully a few of the clues in the last update will come to fruition in h2, but doubt they will have much impact on revenue in h2.

Most of the buying here I expect from the 10-20 existing shareholders with decent holdings already with the exception of Tracy's new mate.
I think Mark was talking to the converted this week, but adding confidence and reconfirming what we had hoped. Hopefully a wider audience in the near future which I am sure will come with news, top of the risers etc etc.
As always patience.

I think this year they should be cash flow positive on base business, but very dependent on timing of cash receipt on q4 business. Just depends on whether SOH has a further big investment lines up.
Would really like OPTI to keep its current SBTX holding, for eventual distribution.

Dallo, where do you get your view on a rights issue as cash was specifically addressed in the half year report ? Also very dependent on the mix of business models, if there are up front payments with the DU / more of a royalty revenue stream at high margins hopefully will not be needed.
I can see a listed US company coming in and taking new shares (similar to juniper networks and corero) at around market price if there are other benefits in the background (marketing, partnerships, future r and d / joint products).

Draft many thanks for this, whilst I agree OPTI is a strong buy this article is pretty bonkers.
Absolutely no attempt to understand or analyse the company, it's market and the potential profit past a soon to be achieved breakeven point - as well as the potential transformational events. Also the simply buffoonish comment on not requiring cash due to the sbtx holding, rather than looking at the cash balance and usage.
If the company is a buy at 70p is a bargain at 55p.
Anyway, seems to have had the right impact with the usual cult like IC followers getting buying.

Interesting conversations today, not sure when and value in futures years but a multiple of where we are.
What does still surprise is the current price, simply nothing is built on at even a minimal level of probability.
Anyway sitting back waiting for the ride and sitting tight with my holding.

Really good to see Mark in conversation, hopefully the conduit between D and the investment community taking Ds technical excellence and explaining it terms of the market for products / services and the financial impact. Really happy he is a fairly conservative chap, just me or did I sense a real confidence behind this ? I really think he will enjoy presenting the over delivery against expectations in the near future.

RS,
Please actually read what I have said.
Amazed shareholders are not interested in the detail and facts, and why they don't want excellence, compliance and governance from their BoD. Companies which have this tend to be well run across the board leading to superior returns.BOD
Anyway looks like we have a buyer building a nice stake today.

Exactly !
Not a cold market but an imperfect one, throwing up pricing irregularities and opportunity. AIM has a lot of + / - so not a complete disaster, it has a lot of dross which is not investable.
I have always said the major price movement will be late '22, early '23 when the wider market can see a good h1 22, rns with repeat and on going contracts, a level of sales which shows the ability to lever profit and cash on high levels of growth in '23.
With this will come the write ups in newspapers / investor mags as I don't see them being ahead of the curve.

Tracy.

We have a complexity with 5g selling, it as you have noted in the past you own no other AIM shares. Price movements are on small volume, are erratic, illogical and just unfathomable sometimes over short and longer timescales. With AIM a "cold market" can flip overnight.

From IPO ENET is on the face of it a complete and total failure despite the opportunity the merry band here see, IR before any delivery won't make a blind bit of difference.

With contract orders we need the rns to simplify the tech to understand the customer buying decision, the financial opportunity it brings and links to an IR site which is informative and provides the investment justification. A few hot days on the risers leader board will create a lot of buzz, but with a lag as investors take a cautious approach with timing and volume of buying. As others have said a known brand name in an RNS will be transformational.

Tracy, although a Smiths fan prefer " pragmatic" than " miserable".

Whatever the IR, what we need is series of contract orders above everything else. The key IR will be a write up in a newspaper or investing mag after decent news, this will bring in a lot of new investors or at least adding to a watch list - I hope a better IR site will help them in an investing decision.
There are enough investors out there, as can be seen with other AIM stocks, just look at the private investor growth in hl, ajb, ii etc with a massive growth in people directly managing their own sipps / isa with individual shares rather than pooled funds.

My views
- Tracy, you are very wrong on British investors, there is a base of investors with considerable personal wealth who do considerable research and care in investing. This isn't the same percentage of the population as the US or probably Israel and also of a higher age group, we are still addicted to property assets as the first stage of investing.
- the share price reflects a lack of delivery, irrespective of propsects. Once we get a news flow and following revenue, profit and cash this will go north of £1. Once the market can see and extrapolate this it will again go higher, I expect this from an rns blowing guidance out of the water or a ST IC write up.
- Always believed the BOD are focussed on a buyout sometime probably late 23 or 24 at least 10x the current price. To achieve a good price they need this to be a sensible premium to the then share price, I expect investor relations to be ramped up in 22 / 23 to achieve this.
-

Belgrano. You are confusing things here on VAT on export from business to business, this is not the issue.
In the US there is a sales tax (like VAT in the UK), don't ask me what this covers as the rate of sales tax also varies from state to state and may change what it is on. So whether it is made in the US from a sales tax perspective is relatively irrelevant.

Posts on the board vs share trades, back to these levels ! God knows what the ratio of rns announcements to posts is.
Although a long term holder with a lot of patience, even for me this is such a real dead zone between news.
Due to the amount of cash here, this one I can't just stick it in the bottom drawer and forget about so keep on viewing posts (virtually all of which are informative - thanks for the company). Hoping for some excitement soon, pointing to both short and longer term action to start another leg up.

Acq.
Absolutely agree. The current price takes in the markets perception of past performance and delivery, if the new chair can box the CEO into a very limited technical role and have a very strong sales/marketing vp, a very strong operations vp, and a strong cfo this will be a great buy for the long term.

Chris.
This is the same with OPTI. It is completely inappropriate and frankly amateurish for an AIM company to use a single private investor behind a paywall (I know elric does a great service in sending a lot of this to charity) as it's key investor relations communication.
Company information from the CEO should be equally available to all current shareholders and potential investors.
It's also then whether you consider the CEO is providing insider information to individuals which they are trading on, either before they communicate this forward or outside What they are comunicating.

Aqc.

This simply isn't research. It's reading the annual reports past the fluffy strategy bits into the notes to the accounts and the risk and audit issues, Simon Thompson really should try it some time.

Pretty small? So we have £200k plus for a years salary and benefits, options cancelled and reinstated over a longer timescale and further shares issued for over 2m shares. Let's not forget what an absolute and complete mess this CFO left in his wake, with audit, renumeration and BOD who did not provide necessary oversight.

Yes, some really appalling governance on aim. I sold out of SIS after they failed to hit targets in their ltip so just reset them after the event, there are however some really well governed companies on aim and we as shareholders should not accept this as the norm - in the same way as electors we should not put up with Han**** giving his mate down the pub multi million £ contracts by whatsap. However the background to and amount of the aroc provisions, the payments to the CFO are exceptional and I can't think of another similar instance on AIM.

As I have repeatedly stated there is fantastic potential here as there has been for many years. It comes down to whether you or I believe the company will optimise this opportunity with the current BOD and management team ? Even if, as I hope, this performs well and goes to say 50p, I believe another team would have this at £1.

It's up to the non execs and the remuneration committee to control this rather than company law. Giving a CFO and "in house counsel", who was totally incompetent, 300k share options (amongst other things) for overseeing an audit is nothing short of scandalous. I can imagine institutional investors being really unhappy here, and making their opinions known.
After three / four years of this I am amazed ST doesn't ask the hard questions in his regular calls with the CEO.
My hope here is that the new chairman, who was a non exec, had no influence over this as the timing slightly overlaps with this exit.

Uhlf, more evolution than revolution but based on the same tech and IP, but as any good strategy changes over time but does not throw the baby out with the bath water.
Like yourself very happy that the reliance on China has dissipated to become a smaller % of the pipeline, I think we would need another cash call due to late paying / working capital requirements in this market. I still believe China has immense potential due to the shear weight of investment cash and a longer term investment return timeline, but do worry about IP protection.